Grains Report 02/06/2024

DJ February Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Thursday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA January USDA 2022-23
Corn 124.3 121.0-127.0 127.0 137.0
Soybeans 153.0 148.0-157.5 157.0 160.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo North America 126.5 153.5
Allendale 125.0 153.0
Doane 122.0 154.0
Linn Group 121.0 148.0
Marex 123.0 157.0
Midland Research 122.0 152.0
Midwest Market Solutions 127.0 157.5
Ocean State Research 127.0 155.0
Prime Ag 126.0 153.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 125.0 151.5
StoneX 124.5 150.4
US Commodities 122.0 152.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 124.4 152.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA January USDA 2022-23
Corn 55.7 55.0-57.0 55.0 34.0
Soybeans 50.8 50.0-52.0 50.0 25.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo North America 55.0 50.0
Allendale 57.0 50.0
Doane 56.0 51.0
Linn Group 55.0 52.0
Marex 57.0 52.0
Midland Research 55.0 50.0
Midwest Market Solutions 56.0 50.0
Ocean State Research 57.0 52.0
Prime Ag 55.0 50.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 55.0 50.0
StoneX 55.0 51.5
US Commodities 55.5 50.5
Zaner Ag Hedge 56.0 51.0

DJ February World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World 2023-24 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24 USDA USDA
Average Range January 2022-23
Corn 324.0 317.0-327.1 325.2 300.6
Soybeans 112.9 109.0-115.0 114.6 101.9
Wheat 260.1 257.0-262.0 260.0 271.6
2023-24
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 324.8 114.3 260.1
Allendale 325.2 112.4 260.2
Linn Group 317.0 109.0 261.5
Marex 327.0 115.0 260.0
Midwest Market Solutions 325.5 114.5 259.5
Ocean State Research 326.0 115.0 261.0
Prime Ag 325.0 112.0 260.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 320.0 111.0 262.0
StoneX 327.1 114.7 260.9
US Commodities 322.0 111.6 257.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 324.4 112.9 258.9

DJ U.S. February Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (millions)
USDA USDA
Average Range January 2022-23
Corn 2,134 2,065-2,212 2,162 1,360
Soybeans 282 245-312 280 264
Wheat 649 623-673 648 570
2023-24
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 2,137 270 623
Allendale 2,162 290 658
Doane 2,065 245 645
Linn Group 2,172 279 661
Marex 2,212 300 648
Midland Research 2,087 250 648
Midwest Market Solutions 2,152 280 645
Ocean State Research 2,164 293 673
Prime Ag 2,162 280 648
Risk Mgmt Commodities 2,100 285 645
RJ O’Brien 2,067 312 653
StoneX 2,092 295 662
US Commodities 2,137 275 640
VantageRM 2,162 290 648
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,137 285 638

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Feb 5
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Feb 5, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING FEB 01, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 02/01/2024 01/25/2024 02/02/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,814 2,154
CORN 624,295 926,349 494,000 16,286,804 12,549,435
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 200
MIXED 0 0 0 73 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,794 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 72 0
SORGHUM 115,643 63,319 1,880 2,797,425 496,730
SOYBEANS 1,426,472 913,448 1,914,633 29,116,276 38,116,001
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 4,109 2,160
WHEAT 266,269 283,789 590,559 11,273,765 13,813,759
Total 2,432,679 2,186,905 3,001,072 59,484,132 64,986,925
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was a little lower yesterday on strength in the US Dollar and weakness in prices in Russia and Europe. The WASDE reports should show increased ending stocks. The weekly export sales report was not strong and the weaker sales are due to strong competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada week this week. Warm temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 585, 576, and 568 March, with resistance at 613, 622, and 630 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 607, 601, and 587 March, with resistance at 641, 647, and 655 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 689, 679, and 674 March, and resistance is at 713, 720, and 729 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday on some apparent long liquidation. Trends are still up on the daily charts. The WASDE reports will be monitored for changes given the recent rally. Speculative and producer selling was found above 1800 March last week, but the buy side took advantage of the sharp move lower to get some pricing done. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets here in the US . Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to u[p with objectives of 1913 and 2007 March. Support is at 1819, 1801, and 1785 March and resistance is at 1864, 1876, and 1888 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed about unchanged in consolidation trading. Trends remain mixed. WASDE reports will be released this week with no changes expected. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this weeke3nd but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area Soybean quality could be reduced as well. Oats were higher in range trading. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 440, 437, and 435 March, and resistance is at 448, 452, and 456 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 368, 350, and 338 March, and resistance is at 385, 393, and 402 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on warm and dry forecasts for this week in Argentina. It should rain after that. USDA will issue its next WASDE report late this week with no big changes expected. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. However, there are more estimates that production is below 150 million tons and in some cases much below that level as yield reports from Mato Grosso have been poor and less than expected by analysts. Wire reports indicate that Chinese hog herds have been cut significantly and much less Soybean Meal demand is expected from that sector. Soybeans imports requirements could be 20% less as a result. China continues to source more Soybeans from Brazil than the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1162 and 1136 March. Support is at 1180, 1168, and 1152 March, and resistance is at 1207, 1223, and 1228 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 352.00, 346.00, and 344.00 March, and resistance is at 366.00, 370.00, and 373.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 4450, 4400, a6nd 4340 March, with resistance at 4710, 4790, and 4860 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on weak export data from the private sources and on weaker prices in competing oils markets. It was higher today. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are turning down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was higher on price action in Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are turning down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 586.00, 580.00, and 573.00 March, with resistance at 601.00, 615.00, and 625.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3720, 3680, and 3620 April, with resistance at 3800, 3860, and 3900 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 74 Mar 155 Mar
100 Mar
83 Mar

March
70 Mar 170 Mar 100 Mar 82 Mar

April
62 May 170 May 100 May 72 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 852.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 852.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 827.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 805.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 860.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 860.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 835.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 812.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 855.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 730.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,920 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 255.00 +06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.763)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 172,492 lots, or 8.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,726 4,787 4,724 4,763 4,725 4,757 32 109,829 121,563
May-24 4,714 4,783 4,706 4,774 4,706 4,753 47 56,026 65,392
Jul-24 4,647 4,697 4,647 4,691 4,646 4,676 30 4,581 18,554
Sep-24 4,634 4,667 4,632 4,660 4,629 4,655 26 1,964 10,199
Nov-24 4,616 4,645 4,614 4,630 4,610 4,632 22 54 973
Jan-25 4,607 4,628 4,607 4,617 4,597 4,619 22 38 848
Corn
Turnover: 434,305 lots, or 10.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,358 2,365 2,348 2,363 2,348 2,357 9 26,072 101,869
May-24 2,395 2,416 2,393 2,415 2,390 2,404 14 360,982 876,126
Jul-24 2,417 2,435 2,415 2,434 2,414 2,425 11 31,586 234,760
Sep-24 2,422 2,433 2,420 2,432 2,419 2,427 8 12,960 100,861
Nov-24 2,392 2,404 2,390 2,403 2,385 2,397 12 2,216 18,955
Jan-25 2,389 2,405 2,386 2,403 2,388 2,398 10 489 3,253
Soymeal
Turnover: 980,266 lots, or 29.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,126 3,156 3,114 3,150 3,129 3,136 7 29,410 54,408
May-24 2,978 3,013 2,973 3,002 2,999 2,993 -6 799,624 1,519,264
Jul-24 2,988 3,017 2,979 3,006 3,002 2,997 -5 23,278 178,181
Aug-24 3,068 3,097 3,061 3,088 3,082 3,079 -3 2,345 35,263
Sep-24 3,054 3,087 3,050 3,079 3,071 3,070 -1 114,025 665,784
Nov-24 3,062 3,087 3,053 3,081 3,070 3,071 1 5,092 46,115
Dec-24 3,107 3,129 3,097 3,126 3,116 3,115 -1 316 11,576
Jan-25 3,087 3,122 3,087 3,120 3,108 3,111 3 6,176 35,927
Palm Oil
Turnover: 512,027 lots, or 36.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-24 – – – 7,258 7,258 7,258 0 0 1,644
Mar-24 7,232 7,304 7,198 7,254 7,194 7,254 60 4,687 11,298
Apr-24 7,174 7,272 7,164 7,230 7,178 7,212 34 936 2,183
May-24 7,068 7,166 7,046 7,114 7,044 7,100 56 466,733 381,346
Jun-24 6,950 7,042 6,936 7,002 6,926 6,996 70 588 1,932
Jul-24 6,866 6,944 6,862 6,910 6,840 6,904 64 308 1,907
Aug-24 6,772 6,860 6,766 6,818 6,758 6,812 54 87 1,526
Sep-24 6,700 6,780 6,682 6,736 6,684 6,726 42 38,439 102,691
Oct-24 6,664 6,742 6,664 6,704 6,648 6,698 50 82 471
Nov-24 6,660 6,726 6,652 6,688 6,640 6,686 46 37 643
Dec-24 6,664 6,718 6,664 6,686 6,642 6,690 48 27 121
Jan-25 6,678 6,734 6,668 6,698 6,660 6,710 50 103 606
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 417,051 lots, or 29.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,226 7,298 7,218 7,260 7,232 7,256 24 3,399 9,526
May-24 7,124 7,162 7,100 7,132 7,130 7,128 -2 373,221 620,472
Jul-24 7,086 7,124 7,070 7,088 7,100 7,102 2 2,835 20,181
Aug-24 7,092 7,122 7,074 7,090 7,122 7,102 -20 1,834 8,509
Sep-24 7,064 7,096 7,042 7,070 7,070 7,064 -6 34,448 142,710
Nov-24 7,052 7,080 7,032 7,056 7,054 7,052 -2 1,009 7,756
Dec-24 7,108 7,150 7,104 7,114 7,124 7,114 -10 55 1,587
Jan-25 7,092 7,134 7,090 7,110 7,108 7,104 -4 250 2,573
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322