Softs Report 02/05/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher last week on speculator buying tied to another week of strong export sales and signs of a robust US economy. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The charts indicate that trends turned up in the second half of last week Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.57 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 999 bales, from 999 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9320 March. Support is at 86.00, 84.90, and 83.10 March, with resistance of 87.40, 88.10 and 88.80 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 291,801
: Positions :
: 47,283 22,848 71,338 75,120 162,185 80,642 22,856 274,384 279,226: 17,418 12,575
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: 25,416) :
: -3,192 -5,652 7,381 13,246 20,170 5,430 2,883 22,864 24,781: 2,552 635
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2 7.8 24.4 25.7 55.6 27.6 7.8 94.0 95.7: 6.0 4.3
: Total Traders: 278 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 66 90 54 66 48 24 227 210:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher last week on follow through buying and no real selling interest. The moves implies that the long liquidation that had forced prices lower had come to a dramatic end. Prices have been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 370.00, 359.00, and 354.00 March, with resistance at 392.00, 403.00, and 409.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,906 :
: Positions :
: 3,071 4,998 939 144 94 1,422 1,294 490 1,188 391 2,989 :
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 :
: -457 663 47 -59 -12 -74 -234 -70 4 -251 -145 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.8 42.0 7.9 1.2 0.8 11.9 10.9 4.1 10.0 3.3 25.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 11 9 5 . . 13 7 5 10 10 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher last week even as forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February continue, and London was lower again on an increase of Robusta offers into the cash and futures markets. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, but it looks like Vietnamese producers could be finally letting some Coffee filter into the market. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas and Vietnamese and Brazilian producers remain reluctant sellers. Brazil weather remains uneven but is improving for the best crop production. Reports indicate that logistical problems at ports remain to delay shipments from Brazil.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.266 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 183.69 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 198.00 and 210.00 March. Support is at 190.00, 188.00, and 185.00 March, and resistance is at 197.00, 200.00 and 201.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3140, 3060, and 2990 March, with resistance at 3320, 3380, and 3410 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 273,309
: Positions :
: 55,789 21,679 86,857 56,243 146,965 64,342 9,461 263,232 264,962: 10,078 8,347
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,579) :
: 4,373 3,628 -2,106 1,782 4,563 1,130 -739 5,179 5,346: -600 -767
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.4 7.9 31.8 20.6 53.8 23.5 3.5 96.3 96.9: 3.7 3.1
: Total Traders: 385 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 116 78 113 96 115 51 23 328 277:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed a little higher and London closed lower last week and the trends remain sideways on the daily charts. Reports indicate that logistical problems continue to plague Sugar shipments from Brazil. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Brazil ports are very congested with shipments of Corn and Soybeans, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2330, 2310, and 2260 March and resistance is at 2430, 2450, and 2500 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 650.00, 646.00, and 636.00 March, with resistance at 675.00, 680.00, and 686.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,133,085
: Positions :
: 78,907 78,006 303,988 445,000 603,421 225,591 90,519 1,053,487 1,075,935: 79,598 57,150
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: 31,663) :
: 6,589 3,462 11,500 6,632 12,209 6,132 734 30,853 27,905: 809 3,758
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.0 6.9 26.8 39.3 53.3 19.9 8.0 93.0 95.0: 7.0 5.0
: Total Traders: 231 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 48 78 73 71 40 19 209 181:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were sharply higher last week and price trends are up again on the daily and weekly charts. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.169 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 4830, 4680, and 4600 March, with resistance at 5000, 5030, and 5060 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3900, 3800, and 3760 March, with resistance at 4050, 4080, and 4110 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 494,203
: Positions :
: 90,145 44,119 216,951 123,404 200,894 45,761 18,196 476,260 480,161: 17,943 14,042
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,708) :
: -7,547 -2,509 4,449 6,337 2,450 -1,373 -880 1,865 3,509: -157 -1,801
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.2 8.9 43.9 25.0 40.7 9.3 3.7 96.4 97.2: 3.6 2.8
: Total Traders: 273 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 104 70 98 37 46 34 16 223 195:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322