Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Wheat: Wheat was about unchanged for Winter Wheat and a little lower for Spring Wheat last week. The weekly export sales report was not strong and the weaker sales are due to strong competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada week this week. Warm temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
Corn: Corn closed lower last week despite another week of good export sales. Trends remain mixed with the price action of the week. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected next week but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area Soybean quality could be reduced as well. Oats were higher in range trading. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Weekly Corn Futures
Weekly Oats Futures
Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower despite warm and dry forecasts for the next week in Argentina. Thee export sales report showed bad net Soybeans sales due in part to some cancellations and as Brazil Soybeans are far cheaper than those from the US. In fact, about three shipments of Soybean from Brazil were purchased by American interests in the Southeast. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality of Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. However, there are more estimates that production is below 150 million tons and in some cases much below that level as yield reports from Mato Grosso have been poor and less than expected by analysts. Wire reports indicate that Chinese hog herds have been cut significantly and much less Soybean Meal demand is expected from that sector. Soybeans imports requirements could be 20% less as a result. China continues to source more Soybeans from Brazil than the US.
Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures
Rice: Rice closed higher last week and trends turned up again on the daily and weekly charts. Speculative and producer selling was found above 1800 March last week, but the buy side took advantage of the sharp move lower to get some pricing done. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets here in the US Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas.
Weekly Chicago Rice Futures
Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil was lower on weak export data from the private sources and on weaker prices in competing oils markets. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are turning down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was lower on price action in Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are turning down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures
Weekly Canola Futures
Cotton: Cotton closed higher last week on speculator buying tied to another week of strong export sales and signs of a robust US economy. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The charts indicate that trends turned up in the second half of last week Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Weekly US Cotton Futures
Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed sharply higher last week on follow through buying and no real selling interest. The moves implies that the long liquidation that had forced prices lower had come to a dramatic end. Prices have been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Weekly FCOJ Futures
Coffee: New York closed higher last week even as forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February continue, and London was lower again on an increase of Robusta offers into the cash and futures markets. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, but it looks like Vietnamese producers could be finally letting some Coffee filter into the market. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas and Vietnamese and Brazilian producers remain reluctant sellers. Brazil weather remains uneven but is improving for the best crop production. Reports indicate that logistical problems at ports remain to delay shipments from Brazil.
Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures
Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures
Sugar: New York closed a little higher and London closed lower last week and the trends remain sideways on the daily charts. Reports indicate that logistical problems continue to plague Sugar shipments from Brazil. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Brazil ports are very congested with shipments of Corn and Soybeans, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures
Weekly London White Sugar Futures
Cocoa: Both markets were sharply higher last week and price trends are up again on the daily and weekly charts. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Weekly New York Cocoa Futures
Weekly London Cocoa FuturesQuestions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322