Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed higher on a mix of fund and other speculator buying. The charts indicate a sideways range, but the ability of prices to move higher inside of that range. Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather in northern areas and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.62 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 999 bales, from 999 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 83.70, 83.20, and 82.20 March, with resistance of 85.10, 85.80 and 87.40 March.
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher again yesterday. The daily charts suggest that the market is trying to find a low at this time. Prices have been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 340.00, 330.00, and 320.00 March, with resistance at 353.00, 363.00, and 379.00 March.
General Comments: New York closed higher yesterday even as forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February continue, and London higher on the lack of Robusta offers into the cash and futures markets. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas and Vietnamese and Brazilian producers remain reluctant sellers. Brazil weather remains uneven but is improving for the best crop production. Reports indicate that logistical problems at ports remain to delay shipments from Brazil.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.250 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 184.94 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 198.00 and 210.00 March. Support is at 190.00, 188.00, and 185.00 March, and resistance is at 200.00, 201.00 and 204.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 3600 March. Support is at 3230, 3160, and 3140 March, with resistance at 3380, 3410, and 3440 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday and the trends are sideways on the daily charts. Reports indicate that logistical problems continue to plague Sugar shipments from Brazil. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Brazil ports are very congested with shipments of Corn and Soybeans, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2480 and 2840 March. Support is at 2330, 2310, and 2260 March and resistance is at 2430, 2450, and 2500 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 660.00, 653.00, and 646.00 March, with resistance at 680.00, 686.00, and 703.00 March.
General Comments: Both markets were higher and price trends are up again on the daily charts. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest is starting in parts of West Africa so the losses will become minor for now. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.179 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4690, 4600, and 4520 March, with resistance at 4840, 4880, and 4910 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 3920 and 4040 March. Support is at 3800, 3760, and 3720 March, with resistance at 3890, 4020, and 4050 March.
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