Grains Report 01/31/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday in all three markets in recovery trading. EUI offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are stable, but EU offers are turning lower this week. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is turning warmer in the US and Canada week this week and some showers are in the forecast for late this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be stable. Ukraine said that it is having trouble with shipping as much of the Wheat is shipped through the Red Sea due to the Houthi bombing of ships there. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 585, 576, and 568 March, with resistance at 607, 613, and 622 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 607, 601, and 587 March, with resistance at 641, 647, and 655 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 690, 679, and 674 March, and resistance is at 713, 720, and 729 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying from the rally that started late last week. Futures made it above 1800 March and finally closed above that level that level. The charts show that futures have broken out of the trading range and could rally more this week. The weekly export sales report showed poor demand in response to the rally. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week on the Delta and Texas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of and 1876 March. Support is at 1801, 1787, and 1774 March and resistance is at 1852, 1864, and 1876 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 31
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 25.59 16.07 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 25.09 16.75 0.00
Brokens 15.48 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday in recovery trading. Trends turned mixed with the price action of yesterday. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected next week. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area Soybean quality could be reduced as well. Oats were higher in range trading. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 440, 437, and 435 March, and resistance is at 448, 452, and 456 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 368, 361, and 350 March, and resistance is at 385, 393, and 402 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in recovery trading. Rains are now in the forecast instead of hot and dry weather developing for a longer term stay. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality of Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Soybean Meal remains weak on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. However, there are more estimates that production is below 150 million tons and in some cases much below that level as yield reports from Mato Grosso have been poor and less than expected by analysts. Wire reports indicate that Chinese hog herds have been cut significantly and much less Soybean Meal demand is expected from that sector. Soybeans imports requirements could be 20% less as a result. China continues to source more Soybeans from Brazil than the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1201, 1188, and 1180 March, and resistance is at 1228, 1235, and 1246 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 352.00, 346.00, and 344.00 March, and resistance is at 366.00, 370.00, and 373.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4500 March. Support is at 4520, 4460, a6nd 4400 March, with resistance at 4710, 4790, and 4860 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on weak export data from the private sources. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are turning up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts as futures are once again testing important resistance areas on the weekly charts. Canola was higher on price action in Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 599.00, 592.00, and 586.00 March, with resistance at 625.00, 640.00, and 646.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3720, and 3680 April, with resistance at 3900, 3950, and 3990 April.

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports Fell 9.4% on Month to 1,227,101 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Jan. 1-31 period are estimated down 9.4% on month at 1,227,101 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
January 1-31 December 1-31
RBD Palm Olein 303,936 380,990
RBD Palm Oil 98,730 93,021
RBD Palm Stearin 90,824 86,310
Crude Palm Oil 308,811 455,382
Total* 1,227,101 1,353,828
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 73 Mar 155 Mar
95 Mar
83 Mar

February
73 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 83 Mar

March
73 Mar 165 Mar 100 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 850.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 850.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 825.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 805.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 857.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 857.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 832.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 812.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 855.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 720.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,900 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 250.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7273)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 141,313 lots, or 6.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,716 4,755 4,710 4,743 4,693 4,736 43 110,654 162,636
May-24 4,674 4,726 4,674 4,716 4,672 4,706 34 26,571 60,801
Jul-24 4,635 4,662 4,628 4,652 4,626 4,643 17 2,352 18,840
Sep-24 4,620 4,646 4,617 4,634 4,614 4,628 14 1,658 10,982
Nov-24 4,607 4,626 4,600 4,622 4,595 4,612 17 46 990
Jan-25 4,592 4,614 4,592 4,609 4,588 4,606 18 32 852
Corn
Turnover: 615,653 lots, or 1.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,341 2,351 2,327 2,345 2,336 2,342 6 44,725 139,261
May-24 2,373 2,397 2,363 2,390 2,372 2,383 11 504,780 924,880
Jul-24 2,407 2,427 2,394 2,419 2,402 2,412 10 42,407 259,172
Sep-24 2,414 2,438 2,407 2,430 2,414 2,426 12 21,324 103,570
Nov-24 2,372 2,391 2,363 2,383 2,370 2,377 7 2,052 19,311
Jan-25 2,366 2,387 2,364 2,385 2,368 2,379 11 365 3,298
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,617,163 lots, or 48.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,078 3,145 3,065 3,118 3,054 3,107 53 65,944 69,229
May-24 2,955 3,018 2,953 2,994 2,948 2,986 38 1,298,710 1,625,456
Jul-24 2,968 3,020 2,959 2,996 2,953 2,990 37 26,340 181,683
Aug-24 3,037 3,092 3,036 3,075 3,030 3,069 39 3,411 36,875
Sep-24 3,026 3,083 3,025 3,065 3,020 3,059 39 189,171 642,144
Nov-24 3,024 3,077 3,022 3,062 3,015 3,053 38 5,305 46,153
Dec-24 3,061 3,111 3,060 3,110 3,048 3,099 51 1,599 11,632
Jan-25 3,053 3,106 3,053 3,102 3,043 3,096 53 26,683 31,720
Palm Oil
Turnover: 743,723 lots, or 53.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-24 7,196 7,350 7,152 7,152 7,376 7,258 -118 45 1,644
Mar-24 7,336 7,432 7,230 7,282 7,450 7,306 -144 13,841 14,716
Apr-24 7,324 7,382 7,208 7,242 7,392 7,284 -108 866 3,651
May-24 7,186 7,274 7,100 7,138 7,328 7,182 -146 664,400 431,057
Jun-24 7,064 7,148 6,996 7,026 7,174 7,066 -108 700 2,335
Jul-24 6,940 7,040 6,906 6,950 7,070 6,962 -108 649 1,664
Aug-24 6,860 6,940 6,812 6,848 6,976 6,876 -100 221 1,505
Sep-24 6,778 6,864 6,734 6,766 6,898 6,796 -102 62,553 98,682
Oct-24 6,746 6,824 6,708 6,728 6,880 6,756 -124 96 430
Nov-24 6,726 6,792 6,692 6,712 6,834 6,724 -110 112 591
Dec-24 6,726 6,770 6,700 6,710 6,820 6,724 -96 40 97
Jan-25 6,750 6,786 6,700 6,736 6,814 6,728 -86 200 467
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 646,776 lots, or 46.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,260 7,390 7,250 7,300 7,386 7,308 -78 8,409 11,098
May-24 7,200 7,302 7,182 7,212 7,306 7,232 -74 576,269 603,114
Jul-24 7,162 7,262 7,152 7,178 7,254 7,200 -54 3,355 22,464
Aug-24 7,178 7,266 7,168 7,190 7,272 7,218 -54 1,277 10,659
Sep-24 7,166 7,234 7,138 7,160 7,234 7,182 -52 55,182 127,643
Nov-24 7,130 7,206 7,118 7,146 7,194 7,152 -42 1,547 6,072
Dec-24 7,198 7,268 7,190 7,198 7,228 7,206 -22 60 1,445
Jan-25 7,178 7,234 7,138 7,170 7,216 7,184 -32 677 1,901
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322