Softs Report 01/30/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed mixed in consolidation trading. Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather in northern areas and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.62 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 999 bales, from 999 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 83.20, 82.20, and 81.80 March, with resistance of 85.10, 85.80 and 87.40 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher to limit up again yesterday. The daily charts suggest that the market is trying to find a low at this time. Prices have been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 346.00 March. Support is at 320.00, 300.00, and 290.00 March, with resistance at 337.00, 353.00, and 363.00 March.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower yesterday on forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February, with London mixed on the lack of Robusta offers into the cash and futures markets. The daily charts show that a further correction is possible in the coming days. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas and Vietnamese and Brazilian producers remain reluctant sellers. Brazil weather remains uneven but is improving for the best crop production. Reports indicate that logistical problems at ports remain to delay shipments from Brazil.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.249 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 181.43 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 198.00 and 210.00 March. Support is at 188.00, 185.00, and 182.00 March, and resistance is at 195.00, 200.00 and 201.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 3350 and 3600 March. Support is at 3230, 3160, and 3060 March, with resistance at 3320, 3350, and 3380 March.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday as the correction continues. Trends are turning sideways on the daily charts. Reports indicate that logistical problems continue to plague Sugar shipments from Brazil. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Brazil ports are very congested with shipments of Corn and Soybeans, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2480 and 2840 March. Support is at 2330, 2310, and 2260 March and resistance is at 2430, 2450, and 2500 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 660.00, 653.00, and 646.00 March, with resistance at 680.00, 686.00, and 703.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were higher and have developed a sideways trade after the big rally that stopped a week or so ago. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest is starting in parts of West Africa so the losses will become minor for now. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.170 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 4600, 4520, and 4420 March, with resistance at 4840, 4880, and 4910 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3720, 3680, and 3630 March, with resistance at 3800, 3840, and 3870 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322