Grains Report 01/30/2024

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 29
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Jan 29, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 25, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————–
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/25/2024 01/18/2024 01/26/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 200 0 1,814 2,154
CORN 901,958 746,933 544,456 15,638,118 12,055,435
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 200
MIXED 0 0 0 24 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,794 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 72 0
SORGHUM 63,319 78,689 1,222 2,681,782 494,850
SOYBEANS 889,717 1,184,956 1,931,146 27,666,073 36,201,368
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 4,109 2,160
WHEAT 264,666 315,186 446,118 10,988,373 13,223,200
Total 2,119,660 2,325,964 2,922,942 56,984,159 61,985,853
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday in all three markets on weakness in EU offers. Russian and Ukraine offers are stable, but EU offers are turning lower this week. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is turning warmer in the US and Canada week this week and some showers are in the forecast for late this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be stable. Ukraine said that it is having trouble with shipping as much of the Wheat is shipped through the Red Sea due to the Houthi bombing of ships there. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 587, 585, and 577 March, with resistance at 600, 607, and 617 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 601, 587, and 584 March, with resistance at 627, 641, and 647 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 692, 674, and 668 March, and resistance is at 713, 730, and 729 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday on follow through buying from the rally late last week. Futures made it above 1800 March and finally closed above that level that level. The charts show that futures have broken out of the trading range and could rally more this week. The weekly export sales report showed poor demand in response to the rally. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week on the Delta and Texas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1820 and 1876 March. Support is at 1787, 1774, and 1769 March and resistance is at 1820, 1832, and 1844 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on renewed fund selling. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected next week. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area Soybean quality could be reduced as well. Oats were higher in range trading. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 437, 435, and 432 March, and resistance is at 448, 452, and 456 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 361, 350, and 338 March, and resistance is at 376, 385, and 393 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed last week, with Soybeans and Soybean Oil lower and Soybean Meal a little higher. Prices were mostly lower on talk that US importers had bought 3 cargoes of Brazilian Soybeans to bring to the US and improved Argentine weather forecasts. Rains are now in the forecast instead of hot and dry weather developing for a longer term stay. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality of Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Soybean Meal remains weak on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. However, there are more estimates that production is below 150 million tons and in some cases much below that level as yield reports from Mato Grosso have been poor and less than expected by analysts. Wire reports indicate that Chinese hog herds have been cut significantly and much less Soybean Meal demand is expected from that sector. Soybeans imports requirements could be 20% less as a result. China continues to source more Soybeans from Brazil than the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1162 and 1116 March. Support is at 1192, 1180, and 1168 March, and resistance is at 1201, 1228, and 1235 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 335.00 and 313.00 March. Support is at 346.00, 344.00, and 341.00 March, and resistance is at 361.00, 366.00, and 370.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4500 March. Support is at 4520, 4460, a6nd 4400 March, with resistance at 4710, 4790, and 4860 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower to start this week and again today on weakness in Chicago Soybean Oil. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are turning up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts as futures are once again testing important resistance areas on the weekly charts. Canola was lower on forecasts for better rains in Argentina and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 610.00, 604.00, and 598.00 March, with resistance at 625.00, 640.00, and 646.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3830, 3790, and 3770 April, with resistance at 3990, 4050, and 4070 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 73 Mar 155 Mar
95 Mar
83 Mar

February
73 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 83 Mar

March
73 Mar 165 Mar 100 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 852.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 852.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 832.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 810.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 860.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 860.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 840.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 817.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 860.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 720.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,900 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 253.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.725)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322