Softs Report 1/29/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed slightly higher last week on hopes for strong demand news. However, the weekly export sales report showed reduced demand this week after big sales the previous week. Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather in northern areas and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.73 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 999 bales, from 999 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8740 and 9220 March. Support is at 83.20, 82.20, and 81.80 March, with resistance of 85.10, 85.80 and 87.40 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 266,385
: Positions :
: 50,476 28,500 63,958 61,874 142,015 75,212 19,973 251,520 254,445: 14,865 11,940
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: 25,642) :
: 11,494 -12,094 6,427 5,242 34,646 252 -2,504 23,414 26,475: 2,228 -832
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.9 10.7 24.0 23.2 53.3 28.2 7.5 94.4 95.5: 5.6 4.5
: Total Traders: 290 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 65 96 53 66 48 25 238 217:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher to limit up on Friday and near the highs of the week. The price action of Friday implies that higher process can be seen again this week. The daily charts suggest that the market is trying to find a low at this time. Prices have been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 300.00, 290.00, and 280.00 March, with resistance at 320.00, 337.00, and 353.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,468 :
: Positions :
: 3,528 4,334 892 203 106 1,496 1,528 559 1,184 641 3,134 :
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 :
: 91 49 -18 -21 14 28 128 -184 -121 -44 -301 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.3 34.8 7.2 1.6 0.9 12.0 12.3 4.5 9.5 5.1 25.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 62 :
: 12 9 4 . . 11 9 4 8 14 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher again last week, with London once again leading the charge. The daily charts show that a further correction is possible in the coming days. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas and Vietnamese and Brazilian producers remain reluctant sellers. Brazil weather remains uneven but is improving for the best crop production. Reports indicate that logistical problems at ports remain to delay shipments from Brazil.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.249 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 183.39 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 198.00 and 210.00 March. Support is at 188.00, 185.00, and 182.00 March, and resistance is at 195.00, 200.00 and 201.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 3350 and 3600 March. Support is at 3230, 3160, and 3060 March, with resistance at 3320, 3350, and 3380 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 268,730
: Positions :
: 51,416 18,051 88,963 54,461 142,402 63,213 10,200 258,053 259,616: 10,678 9,114
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,435) :
: 2,280 -1,833 2,343 434 2,927 -665 1,109 4,392 4,547: 42 -112
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.1 6.7 33.1 20.3 53.0 23.5 3.8 96.0 96.6: 4.0 3.4
: Total Traders: 374 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 117 73 115 95 113 49 21 321 274:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed moderately higher last week but well off the highs of the week. Trends remain up on the daily charts. Reports indicate that logistical problems continue to plague Sugar shipments from Brazil. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested with shipments of Corn and Soybeans, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2480 and 2840 March. Support is at 2370, 2310, and 2260 March and resistance is at 2460, 2500, and 2540 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 692 March. Support is at 660.00, 653.00, and 646.00 March, with resistance at 696.00, 703.00, and 714.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,101,422
: Positions :
: 72,317 74,544 292,488 438,368 591,212 219,460 89,784 1,022,633 1,048,029: 78,788 53,392
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: 20,874) :
: 4,557 -3,825 9,829 7,236 15,638 2,145 4,466 23,766 26,107: -2,892 -5,233
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.6 6.8 26.6 39.8 53.7 19.9 8.2 92.8 95.2: 7.2 4.8
: Total Traders: 225 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 45 75 73 72 39 19 202 179:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York was higher and London was lower again last week. Both markets have been very strong until the recent turn in London to a more sideways trade. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest is starting in parts of West Africa so the losses will become minor for now. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.155 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 4600, 4520, and 4420 March, with resistance at 4840, 4880, and 4910 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3720, 3680, and 3630 March, with resistance at 3800, 3840, and 3870 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 492,495
: Positions :
: 97,692 46,628 212,503 117,067 198,444 47,134 19,077 474,395 476,652: 18,100 15,843
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: 16,054) :
: 6,863 1,833 8,345 -403 5,417 973 800 15,778 16,395: 276 -341
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.8 9.5 43.1 23.8 40.3 9.6 3.9 96.3 96.8: 3.7 3.2
: Total Traders: 265 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 100 72 87 38 44 32 16 216 183:
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DJ Cocoa Production in Nigeria Seen Hit by Strong Harmattan Winds
By Obafemi Oredein
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
IBADAN, Nigeria — The seasonal Harmattan wind is now stronger and colder in Nigeria’s two cocoa-producing regions, worsening the dry weather and endangering cocoa production, a former senior industry official, farmers and traders said Monday.
In the past week and a half, the Harmattan wind has become strong and cold, drying up moisture from the soil, leaving the midcrop cocoa without water for growth, said Sola Mayowa, a trader.
The Harmattan, a dry, and cold wind from the Sahara desert, blows over West Africa between December and February. It arrived mildly in the country in mid-December and helped the fermentation and drying of cocoa beans, Mayowa said.
“The Harmattan has become very harsh, severe and it is killing ‘cherelles’ [tiny cocoa pods]. There has been no rainfall, we usually have some showers in December and January, but now the weather is extremely dry,” said Sarina Riman, a former president of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria.
He added that if the weather remains like this, up to 90% of flowers from cocoa trees will be lost. “We are beginning to see the death and loss of young cocoa pods in Cross River state — which is the country’s second-largest cocoa producer.”
Riman said though it was too early to forecast any losses, as the weather might change.
“But if it continues like this, Cross River state may have a total failure of the midcrop this season as the state had last season,” he told Dow Jones Newswires.
The midcrop is harvested from April to July or August. The crop accounts for 30% of Nigeria’s annual cocoa production of 250,000 tons to 280,000 tons, according to trade groups in the country.
A lack of rainfall in November and minor scattered showers so far in January in Nigeria’s key southwest cocoa region, combined with harsh Harmattan winds have led to the loss of cocoa seedlings planted to increase and rehabilitate old farms in the region, said Mayowa.
The southwest accounts for 70% of Nigeria’s annual cocoa output.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322