Grains Report 1/29/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher last week in all three markets on the potential for damage from the cold weather seen a week ago and as world prices remain stable. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. The advent of very cold weather into the central US promoted ideas of limited Winterkill for Winter Wheat markets and very dry conditions in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies until now are keeping production ideas for next year in check. It is warmer in these regions now. There was snow cover to protect many of the crops so little if any damage is expected. It has is turning warmer week this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be fading. Ukraine said that it is having trouble with shipping as much of the Wheat is shipped through the Red Sea due to the Houthi bombing of ships there. EU countries are offering. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 591, 585, and 577 March, with resistance at 622, 630, and 640 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 611, 601, and 587 March, with resistance at 647, 655, and 670 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 692, 674, and 668 March, and resistance is at 713, 730, and 729 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 467,570
: Positions :
: 54,276 121,442 150,377 84,867 94,249 144,566 62,622 434,086 428,689: 33,485 38,881
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: 9,061) :
: -572 -5,353 12,717 -2,663 1,162 -915 1,095 8,568 9,621: 493 -561
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 26.0 32.2 18.2 20.2 30.9 13.4 92.8 91.7: 7.2 8.3
: Total Traders: 366 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 108 125 97 93 45 30 301 294:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 241,680
: Positions :
: 28,737 71,403 64,362 43,977 58,104 85,169 26,534 222,246 220,403: 19,434 21,277
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: 9,371) :
: 1,512 -1,109 4,945 1,917 5,617 1,276 1,635 9,649 11,088: -277 -1,717
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.9 29.5 26.6 18.2 24.0 35.2 11.0 92.0 91.2: 8.0 8.8
: Total Traders: 212 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 39 61 59 56 62 37 19 167 169:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 69,141 :
: Positions :
: 41,697 12,980 1,612 385 364 3,688 33,978 4,617 1,751 1,297 5,618 :
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 :
: 601 1,188 -285 192 12 2,065 2,643 -1,109 326 -562 1,410 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 60.3 18.8 2.3 0.6 0.5 5.3 49.1 6.7 2.5 1.9 8.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 116 :
: 49 36 5 . . 7 27 9 12 6 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher last week and closed on a strong note. Futures made it above 1800 March for part of the day before falling back to close a little below that level. The charts show that futures have broken out of the trading range. The weekly export sales report showed poor demand in response to the rally. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week on the Delta and Texas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1820 March. Support is at 1774, 1769, and 1756 March and resistance is at 1806, 1814, and 1820 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 11,104 :
: Positions :
: 2,789 8,643 180 0 61 3,777 758 0 1,333 450 364 :
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 :
: 97 -393 25 0 2 89 254 -72 -30 68 -17 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.1 77.8 1.6 0.0 0.5 34.0 6.8 0.0 12.0 4.1 3.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 65 :
: 13 18 . 0 . 14 . 0 15 4 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher last week in choppy trading. USDA reported weaker export sales again and weather forecasts for Argentina are improving. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area Soybean quality could be reduced as well. Oats were lower in range trading. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. There are also forecasts for a lot of very cold air for the Midwest to keep farmers inside and not opening the bins. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 464 an 478 March. Support is at 445, 437, and 435 March, and resistance is at 452, 456, and 462 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 361, 350, and 338 March, and resistance is at 376, 385, and 393 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,958,230
: Positions :
: 134,600 405,681 621,788 596,160 544,262 412,774 162,398 1,765,321 1,734,128: 192,909 224,102
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: 105,899) :
: -2,142 3,139 59,566 35,156 35,379 10,239 11,622 102,819 109,706: 3,080 -3,808
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.9 20.7 31.8 30.4 27.8 21.1 8.3 90.1 88.6: 9.9 11.4
: Total Traders: 780 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 116 158 202 348 344 52 35 642 643:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed last week, with Soybeans and Soybean Meal lower and Soybean Oil little changed. Prices were mostly lower on Friday on improved Argentine weather forecasts. Rains are now in the forecast instead of hot and dry weather developing for a longer term stay. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality of Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Soybean Meal remains weak on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. However, there are more estimates that production is below 150 million tons and in some cases much below that level as yield reports from Mato Grosso have been poor and less than expected by analysts. Wire reports indicate that Chinese hog herds have been cut significantly and much less Soybean Meal demand is expected from that sector. Soybeans imports requirements could be 20% less as a result. China continues to source more Soybeans from Brazil than the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1201, 1192, and 1180 March, and resistance is at 1225, 1246, and 1251 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 335.00 and 313.00 March. Support is at 347.00, 344.00, and 341.00 March, and resistance is at 361.00, 366.00, and 370.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4610, 4570, a6nd 4520 March, with resistance at 4790, 4800, and 4900 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 931,391
: Positions :
: 41,051 157,188 303,584 355,958 337,918 174,259 58,651 874,853 857,341: 56,538 74,050
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: 56,888) :
: -5,249 6,361 35,546 24,575 11,346 743 4,661 55,615 57,914: 1,273 -1,026
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.4 16.9 32.6 38.2 36.3 18.7 6.3 93.9 92.0: 6.1 8.0
: Total Traders: 570 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 99 154 177 198 214 52 34 462 480:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 593,641
: Positions :
: 47,856 114,496 165,365 183,211 250,677 163,807 34,200 560,239 564,738: 33,402 28,904
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: 20,999) :
: 3,918 -2,016 13,720 1,169 6,645 750 2,101 19,558 20,450: 1,441 549
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 19.3 27.9 30.9 42.2 27.6 5.8 94.4 95.1: 5.6 4.9
: Total Traders: 323 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 82 96 92 92 47 22 264 245:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 566,127
: Positions :
: 41,196 93,625 157,484 183,622 253,667 131,388 24,858 513,689 529,633: 52,437 36,493
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: 18,839) :
: -5,625 6,334 9,398 13,901 996 3,001 458 20,676 17,186: -1,837 1,653
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.3 16.5 27.8 32.4 44.8 23.2 4.4 90.7 93.6: 9.3 6.4
: Total Traders: 331 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 75 95 124 110 44 21 282 258:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week ideas of better demand and on ideas of smaller production in Malaysia. China has been a noted buyer recently. Trends are turning up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts as futures are once again testing important resistance areas on the weekly charts. Canola was lower on forecasts for better rains in Argentina and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 614.00, 610.00, and 604.00 March, with resistance at 640.00, 646.00, and 656.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4220 April. Support is at 3970, 3830, and 3790 April, with resistance at 4050, 4070, and 4130 April.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 42,380 :
: Positions :
: 28,950 22,150 870 8,668 1,870 0 680 200 2,470 792 8,020 :
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 :
: 800 150 10 350 350 0 60 0 -110 140 120 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 68.3 52.3 2.1 20.5 4.4 0.0 1.6 0.5 5.8 1.9 18.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :
: 9 9 . . . 0 . . 6 5 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 280,913 :
: Positions :
: 233,698 99,793 2,562 2,530 4,775 3,648 135,843 23,879 5,759 7,058 5,058 :
: Changes from: January 16, 2024 :
: 7,458 11,334 -13 -225 359 217 -1,309 3,308 1,847 -481 -426 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 83.2 35.5 0.9 0.9 1.7 1.3 48.4 8.5 2.1 2.5 1.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 302 :
: 58 54 5 5 6 12 97 21 45 52 41 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 73 Mar 155 Mar
95 Mar
83 Mar

February
73 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 83 Mar

March
73 Mar 165 Mar 100 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 872.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 872.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 852.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 825.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 880.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 880.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 860.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 832.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 875.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 730.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,980 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 254.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.732)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 143,573 lots, or 6.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,680 4,695 4,639 4,678 4,709 4,666 -43 110,405 187,107
May-24 4,660 4,674 4,629 4,666 4,690 4,652 -38 27,717 61,083
Jul-24 4,615 4,627 4,585 4,621 4,635 4,604 -31 2,806 18,909
Sep-24 4,600 4,613 4,573 4,605 4,621 4,593 -28 2,229 11,476
Nov-24 4,586 4,599 4,558 4,589 4,605 4,571 -34 250 1,005
Jan-25 4,583 4,587 4,556 4,580 4,595 4,565 -30 166 860
Corn
Turnover: 733,503 lots, or 17.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,321 2,350 2,317 2,340 2,313 2,334 21 54,052 158,962
May-24 2,360 2,388 2,352 2,376 2,348 2,372 24 609,982 931,360
Jul-24 2,385 2,415 2,382 2,406 2,378 2,402 24 44,311 253,988
Sep-24 2,393 2,425 2,392 2,417 2,390 2,412 22 20,331 106,612
Nov-24 2,368 2,389 2,362 2,375 2,358 2,377 19 4,227 19,182
Jan-25 2,364 2,385 2,360 2,375 2,353 2,373 20 600 3,111
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,778,510 lots, or 52.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,093 3,097 3,031 3,044 3,143 3,060 -83 80,651 84,138
May-24 2,985 2,988 2,931 2,952 3,018 2,955 -63 1,423,920 1,717,407
Jul-24 2,994 2,994 2,939 2,958 3,025 2,962 -63 28,095 188,118
Aug-24 3,080 3,080 3,014 3,040 3,103 3,042 -61 6,285 38,852
Sep-24 3,065 3,065 3,009 3,029 3,092 3,031 -61 222,641 635,071
Nov-24 3,060 3,060 3,008 3,027 3,084 3,029 -55 6,130 44,266
Dec-24 3,084 3,084 3,041 3,057 3,100 3,062 -38 1,819 10,340
Jan-25 3,079 3,080 3,026 3,049 3,099 3,050 -49 8,969 18,392
Palm Oil
Turnover: 697,659 lots, or 52.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-24 7,612 7,640 7,526 7,536 7,612 7,600 -12 54 1,737
Mar-24 7,720 7,728 7,584 7,588 7,686 7,660 -26 6,821 18,679
Apr-24 7,656 7,656 7,516 7,516 7,616 7,588 -28 353 3,744
May-24 7,566 7,568 7,402 7,412 7,524 7,480 -44 659,123 451,223
Jun-24 7,402 7,408 7,266 7,276 7,380 7,338 -42 483 2,395
Jul-24 7,292 7,292 7,156 7,156 7,264 7,216 -48 178 1,549
Aug-24 7,166 7,166 7,060 7,060 7,162 7,126 -36 97 1,450
Sep-24 7,114 7,122 6,978 6,988 7,092 7,044 -48 30,009 79,329
Oct-24 7,050 7,050 6,938 6,938 7,044 6,996 -48 138 338
Nov-24 7,020 7,020 6,910 6,910 7,014 6,964 -50 131 526
Dec-24 6,986 6,986 6,900 6,906 7,000 6,942 -58 69 84
Jan-25 6,974 6,974 6,888 6,888 6,986 6,928 -58 203 285
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 643,942 lots, or 48.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,708 7,718 7,486 7,492 7,738 7,620 -118 10,710 12,360
May-24 7,564 7,578 7,394 7,400 7,588 7,486 -102 583,116 569,635
Jul-24 7,490 7,490 7,324 7,330 7,522 7,406 -116 2,848 21,687
Aug-24 7,466 7,468 7,340 7,340 7,522 7,396 -126 1,212 10,578
Sep-24 7,446 7,450 7,312 7,316 7,456 7,376 -80 44,856 113,188
Nov-24 7,400 7,400 7,280 7,284 7,408 7,324 -84 765 4,587
Dec-24 7,400 7,400 7,320 7,326 7,418 7,344 -74 76 1,276
Jan-25 7,374 7,374 7,294 7,294 7,394 7,328 -66 359 846
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322