About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 25
For the week ended Jan 18, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 451.4 59.0 16552.2 16034.2 6041.4 259.4
hrw 92.3 5.0 2883.6 4378.0 896.9 30.6
srw 81.1 0.0 4433.2 2509.2 2332.8 90.8
hrs 146.9 54.0 5404.2 4790.0 1680.0 99.0
white 95.1 0.0 3381.2 4044.0 973.5 0.0
durum 36.0 0.0 450.1 313.1 158.3 39.0
corn 954.8 37.6 32482.2 24038.7 17122.8 1130.3
soybeans 560.9 0.0 37948.8 46467.1 11602.6 155.3
soymeal 255.9 0.9 7818.5 6869.6 3704.4 9.2
soyoil 0.1 0.0 32.2 40.6 23.7 0.6
upland cotton 207.0 0.0 9513.0 9282.1 5613.5 683.3
pima cotton 4.7 0.0 199.5 131.1 58.6 3.3
sorghum 60.3 1.1 4267.1 620.7 1723.7 178.7
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.6 12.6 0.0
rice 28.9 0.0 2034.1 1139.4 755.1 0.0

General Comments: Cotton closed slightly higher yesterday on hopes for strong demand news. However, the weekly export sales report xhowed reduced demand. Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Overnight News: The Delta will get precipitation in southern areas and drier weather in northern areas and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and much below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.12 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 999 bales, from 999 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8740 and 9220 March. Support is at 83.20, 82.20, and 81.80 March, with resistance of 87.40, 88.10 and 88.90 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jan 25
As of Jan 19. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Mar 24 24,723 25,466 -743 16,635 20,704 -4,069
May 24 15,169 14,461 708 3,322 3,543 -221
Jul 24 18,634 18,002 632 2,996 3,260 -264
Oct 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 24 8,036 8,138 -102 31,528 31,615 -87
Mar 25 572 608 -36 1,051 1,026 25
May 25 613 613 0 353 353 0
Jul 25 431 431 0 4 4 0
Dec 25 542 542 0 3,616 3,550 66
Mar 26 88 88 0 0 0 0
Total 68,808 68,349 459 59,505 64,055 -4,550
Open Open Change
Int Int
Mar 24 92,053 91,447 606
May 24 52,012 45,756 6,256
Jul 24 43,307 38,886 4,421
Oct 24 70 98 -28
Dec 24 27,856 26,172 1,684
Mar 25 3,215 2,948 267
May 25 101 75 26
Jul 25 79 68 11
Dec 25 66 66 0
Mar 26 0 0 0
Total 218,759 205,516 13,243

General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. The daily charts suggest that the market is trying to find a low at this time. Prices have been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 300.00, 290.00, and 280.00 March, with resistance at 320.00, 337.00, and 353.00 March.

General Comments: New York closed lower yesterday in correction trading, but London closed higher. The daily charts show that a further correction is possible in the coming days. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas and Vietnamese and Brazilian producers remain reluctant sellers. Brazil production areas are seeing some very beneficial rainfall this current week, but not in all areas as parts of Sao Paulo and Parana and southern Minas Gerais remain too hot and dry. Arabica and Robusta areas were affected by drought, but the current forecasts call for a lot of help in affected areas. Brazil weather remains uneven but is improving for the best crop production. Reports indicate that logistical problems remain to delay shipments from Brazil.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.254 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 181.17 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 198.00 and 210.00 March. Support is at 182.00, 179.00, and 176.00 March, and resistance is at 188.00, 195.00 and 201.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 3350 and 3600 March. Support is at 3140, 3060, and 2990 March, with resistance at 3260, 3290, and 3320 March.

General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday in correction trading. Trends remain up on the daily charts. Reports indicate that logistical problems continue to plague Sugar shipments from Brazil. Brazil weather forecasts call for dryness in the south and continued scattered showers in central and northern areas this week but showers in all areas are expected this week. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested with shipments of Corn and Soybeans, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2480 and 2840 March. Support is at 2370, 2310, and 2260 March and resistance is at 2460, 2500, and 2540 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 692 March. Support is at 653.00, 646.00, and 626.00 March, with resistance at 687.00, 703.00, and 714.00 March.

General Comments: New York and London were higher again yesterday, with New York leading the rally. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest is starting in parts of West Africa so the losses will become minor for now. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.174 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 4600, 4520, and 4420 March, with resistance at 4840, 4880, and 4910 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3720, 3680, and 3630 March, with resistance at 3840, 3870, and 3900 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322