Grains Report 01/26/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 25
For the week ended Jan 18, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 451.4 59.0 16552.2 16034.2 6041.4 259.4
hrw 92.3 5.0 2883.6 4378.0 896.9 30.6
srw 81.1 0.0 4433.2 2509.2 2332.8 90.8
hrs 146.9 54.0 5404.2 4790.0 1680.0 99.0
white 95.1 0.0 3381.2 4044.0 973.5 0.0
durum 36.0 0.0 450.1 313.1 158.3 39.0
corn 954.8 37.6 32482.2 24038.7 17122.8 1130.3
soybeans 560.9 0.0 37948.8 46467.1 11602.6 155.3
soymeal 255.9 0.9 7818.5 6869.6 3704.4 9.2
soyoil 0.1 0.0 32.2 40.6 23.7 0.6
upland cotton 207.0 0.0 9513.0 9282.1 5613.5 683.3
pima cotton 4.7 0.0 199.5 131.1 58.6 3.3
sorghum 60.3 1.1 4267.1 620.7 1723.7 178.7
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.6 12.6 0.0
rice 28.9 0.0 2034.1 1139.4 755.1 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher yesterday in all three markets yesterday in response to USDA reports of weekly export sales that were relatively strong for Wheat. The advent of very cold weather into the central US promoted ideas of limited Winterkill for Winter Wheat markets and very dry conditions in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies until now are keeping production ideas for next year in check. It is warmer in these regions now. There was snow cover to protect many of the crops so little if any damage is expected. It has is turning warmer week this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be fading. Ukraine said that it is having trouble with shipping as much of the Wheat is shipped through the Red Sea due to the Houthi bombing of ships there. EU countries are offering. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 591, 585, and 577 March, with resistance at 622, 630, and 640 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 611, 601, and 587 March, with resistance at 647, 655, and 670 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 692, 674, and 668 March, and resistance is at 713, 730, and 729 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday and made new highs for the move. Futures made it above `1800 March for part of the day before falling back to close a little below that level. The charts show that futures have broken out of the trading range. The weekly export sales report showed poor demand in response to the rally. Warmer and wetter weather is being seen this week on the Delta and Texas after a very cold week last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1820 March. Support is at 1769, 1756, and 1742 March and resistance is at 1814, 1820, and 1852 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday on reduced export sales. The sales were under 1.0 million tons. Oats were lower. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. There are also forecasts for a lot of very cold air for the Midwest to keep farmers inside and not opening the bins. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 464 an 478 March. Support is at 445, 437, and 435 March, and resistance is at 456, 462, and 464 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 361, 350, and 338 March, and resistance is at 385, 393, and 402 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on weaker export sales. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality of Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Soybean Meal remains weak on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. However, it is expected to turn dry in Argentina now and yields could be affected as Argentina is entering the reproduction stage for both Soybeans and Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. However, there are more estimates that production is below 150 million tons and in some cases much below that level as yield reports from Mato Grosso have been poor and less than expected by analysts. Wire reports indicate that Chinese hog herds have been cut significantly and much less Soybean Meal demand is expected from that sector. Soybeans imports requirements could be 20% less as a result. China continues to source more Soybeans from Brazil than the US.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 100,000 tons of US Soybean Meal
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1280 March. Support is at 1216, 1204, and 1201 March, and resistance is at 1251, 1260, and 1281 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 352.00, 350.00, and 347.00 March, and resistance is at 362.00, 366.00, and 370.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4610, 4570, a6nd 4520 March, with resistance at 4860, 4900, and 5020 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today ideas of better demand and on ideas of smaller production in Malaysia. China has been a noted buyer recently. Trends are turning up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts as futures are once again testing important resistance areas on the weekly charts. Canola was lower in consolidation trading and in sympathy with the rallies in Chicago. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 615.00, 610.00, and 604.00 March, with resistance at 646.00, 656.00, and 665.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4010 and 4220 April. Support is at 3970, 3830, and 3790 April, with resistance at 4050, 4070, and 4130 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 73 Mar 155 Mar
95 Mar
83 Mar

February
73 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 83 Mar

March
73 Mar 165 Mar 100 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 882.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 882.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 867.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 840.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 890.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 890.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 875.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 847.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 880.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 740.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 4,050 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 254.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7234)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 224,410 lots, or 10.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,779 4,779 4,672 4,680 4,799 4,709 -90 170,456 184,287
May-24 4,735 4,747 4,659 4,662 4,763 4,690 -73 45,369 58,233
Jul-24 4,672 4,673 4,613 4,620 4,688 4,635 -53 4,302 18,247
Sep-24 4,650 4,659 4,601 4,609 4,676 4,621 -55 3,376 10,767
Nov-24 4,660 4,660 4,587 4,610 4,658 4,605 -53 536 859
Jan-25 4,644 4,644 4,580 4,585 4,644 4,595 -49 371 737
Corn
Turnover: 606,930 lots, or 14.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,306 2,326 2,303 2,321 2,314 2,313 -1 43,042 168,383
May-24 2,341 2,363 2,335 2,358 2,348 2,348 0 503,567 962,654
Jul-24 2,378 2,392 2,367 2,386 2,378 2,378 0 42,028 260,044
Sep-24 2,386 2,403 2,378 2,397 2,390 2,390 0 15,356 107,941
Nov-24 2,356 2,372 2,349 2,368 2,362 2,358 -4 1,976 18,937
Jan-25 2,358 2,371 2,339 2,368 2,362 2,353 -9 961 3,079
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,795,802 lots, or 54.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,195 3,201 3,109 3,121 3,219 3,143 -76 94,197 91,251
May-24 3,050 3,051 2,996 3,007 3,060 3,018 -42 1,398,809 1,708,447
Jul-24 3,053 3,053 3,002 3,011 3,064 3,025 -39 41,868 188,055
Aug-24 3,134 3,134 3,087 3,095 3,144 3,103 -41 7,126 40,105
Sep-24 3,125 3,125 3,075 3,079 3,130 3,092 -38 239,037 608,195
Nov-24 3,112 3,113 3,070 3,075 3,120 3,084 -36 7,847 41,344
Dec-24 3,128 3,133 3,092 3,100 3,135 3,100 -35 2,128 9,499
Jan-25 3,121 3,123 3,083 3,092 3,122 3,099 -23 4,790 15,534
Palm Oil
Turnover: 665,886 lots, or 49.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-24 7,602 7,700 7,590 7,644 7,604 7,612 8 642 1,778
Mar-24 7,678 7,756 7,618 7,710 7,678 7,686 8 9,387 18,809
Apr-24 7,642 7,692 7,554 7,642 7,634 7,616 -18 491 3,815
May-24 7,532 7,598 7,450 7,544 7,530 7,524 -6 624,531 485,647
Jun-24 7,402 7,452 7,314 7,406 7,402 7,380 -22 610 2,427
Jul-24 7,286 7,328 7,216 7,276 7,296 7,264 -32 186 1,537
Aug-24 7,192 7,202 7,114 7,180 7,184 7,162 -22 70 1,454
Sep-24 7,110 7,160 7,032 7,108 7,110 7,092 -18 29,693 77,632
Oct-24 7,064 7,098 6,996 7,068 7,070 7,044 -26 57 335
Nov-24 7,030 7,068 6,966 7,040 7,040 7,014 -26 45 475
Dec-24 7,012 7,042 6,954 7,008 7,010 7,000 -10 48 71
Jan-25 7,000 7,018 6,944 6,984 6,998 6,986 -12 126 205
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 622,033 lots, or 47.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,850 7,850 7,670 7,726 7,868 7,738 -130 11,520 12,286
May-24 7,650 7,654 7,530 7,588 7,658 7,588 -70 548,277 545,310
Jul-24 7,544 7,544 7,436 7,486 7,544 7,522 -22 6,834 21,619
Aug-24 7,534 7,534 7,438 7,486 7,534 7,522 -12 4,232 10,184
Sep-24 7,498 7,506 7,408 7,456 7,502 7,456 -46 50,480 106,281
Nov-24 7,460 7,460 7,368 7,416 7,460 7,408 -52 368 4,116
Dec-24 7,446 7,462 7,394 7,432 7,464 7,418 -46 111 1,244
Jan-25 7,420 7,432 7,372 7,374 7,424 7,394 -30 211 561
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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