Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Translate
Grains Report 01/17/2024
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 16
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Tue Jan 16, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 11, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/11/2024 01/04/2024 01/12/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,614 1,855
CORN 875,621 1,092,362 779,788 13,918,431 10,782,138
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 200
MIXED 0 0 0 24 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,794 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 72 0
SORGHUM 296,128 175,237 2,708 2,539,774 421,054
SOYBEANS 1,264,468 1,040,628 2,191,669 25,576,844 32,431,040
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 4,109 2,160
WHEAT 234,205 501,910 325,667 10,377,165 12,427,689
Total 2,670,422 2,810,137 3,299,832 52,421,827 56,072,622
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA
DJ Analysts’ Estimates for January Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Jan 1 102.2 101.4-102.5
Placed in Dec 95.4 91.5-98.0
Marketed in Dec 99.2 98.2-100.7
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Jan 1 in Dec in Dec
Allegiant Commodity Group 101.8 93.3 99.4
Allendale Inc. 102.2 97.5 100.7
HedgersEdge 102.1 93.3 98.2
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 102.4 97.9 99.4
Midwest Market Solutions 102.3 93.5 98.2
NFC Markets 102.3 96.7 99.4
Texas A&M Extension 102.5 98.0 99.4
US Commodities 101.4 91.5 99.5
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday in response weaker demand ideas and bad export inspections. The USDA reports on Friday were actually price positive and the advent of very cold weather into the central US promoted ideas of limited Winterkill. There should be snow cover to protect the crops so little if any damage is expected. USDA cut its ending stocks estimates and also showed less than expected planted area for Wheat for the coming year. The big weakness in Corn and Soybeans caused weakness in Wheat as did a dismal export sales pace to date for US Wheat. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be about 260.00 per tons FOB with Ukrainian prices about the same. EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 572 and 542 March. Support is at 577, 568, and 562 March, with resistance at 594, 604, and 613 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 580 and 553 March. Support is at 584, 572, and 560 March, with resistance at 622, 637, and 647 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 689 March. Support is at 686, 680, and 674 March, and resistance is at 703, 713, and 720 March.
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower in consolidation trading yesterday. Support was seen early in the session as USDA issued its WASDE and production estimates and production was increased via increased yields. The increase was in long grain with medium and short grain production estimated lower than the previous year. Demand showed increases on the domestic side but unchanged demand potential on the export side. Ending stocks were increased to 24 million cwt for long grain from 21.2 million before. USDA cut its all Rice ending stocks estimate to 41.5 million cwt from 41.9 million in December. Demand reports have been weaker lately and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia. Futures are trying to complete a sideways formation with a move to higher prices and might have started on this quest on Friday. The market acts firm despite the USDA long grain reports as world data showed cuts to ending stocks levels.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1758, 1744, and 1721 March and resistance is at 1774, 1785, and 1814 March.
DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 17
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 25.17 15.81 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 24.69 16.48 0.00
Brokens 15.22 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on ideas of too much production for the demand in the US. The export inspections report showed less offtake USDA increased yields by over 3 bu/acre last week.re to177.4 bu/acre and increased production to 15.342 billion bushels. Ending stocks were estimated at 2.163 billion bushels, from 2.131. billion last month. USDA left export demand unchanged but increased domestic demand in all categories but not enough to change the trajectory of higher stocks. The CONAB Brazil production estimate released on Wednesday that was reduced for the coming year due to reduced Winter Corn planted area and USDA reduced its production estimate as well. Oats were higher in sympathy with Corn as no changes were made to the balance sheets. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. There are also forecasts for a lot of very cold air for the Midwest to keep farmers inside and not opening the bins. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 436 March. Support is at 441, 434, and 432 March, and resistance is at 456, 462, and 464 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 351, 338, and 330 March, and resistance is at 376, 393, and 402 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher yesterday, but Soybean Oil was on spreading against Soybean Meal and in response to the NOPA crush re[ort that showed higher than expected supplies. Production was raised to 4.165 billion bushels in response to a yield estimate of a50.6 bu/acre, from49.8 bu/acre in November. Ending stocks were estimated at 280 million bushels from 238 million in December. Brazil production was cut to 157 million tons, but this was spied out by the US changes and the continued strong production potential in Argentina. CONAB on Wednesday estimated production down at just over 155 million tons, but this would still be a new record production. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil is expected to continue through this weekend. Soybean Meal was weaker on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. Our source suggests that production in Brazil could be much less due to the extreme weather seen already. Brazil has been mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1200 March. Support is at 1203, 1192, and 1180 March, and resistance is at 1252, 1260, and 1261 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 363.00, 353.00, and 350.00 March, and resistance is at 370.00, 376.00, and 386.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4700, 4630, a6nd 4570 March, with resistance at 4900, 4960, and 5920 March.
Alerts History
• 16 Jan 2024 11:00:16 AM – U.S. DECEMBER SOYBEAN CRUSH AT RECORD HIGH 195.328 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
• 16 Jan 2024 11:00:16 AM – U.S. DECEMBER SOYOIL STOCKS 1.360 BILLION LBS – NOPA
NOPA December US soy crush jumps to record 195.328 million bushels – Reuters News
16 Jan 2024 11:00:32 AM
OPEN IN LSEG WORKSPACE
• NOTE: For a table detailing NOPA data by region, see Eikon page 0#SEED-US-STAT
By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, Jan 16 (Reuters) – U.S. soybean processors crushed more soybeans in December than any previous month on record, closing out a banner year for the industry with their three largest crush months ever, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Tuesday.
NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 195.328 million bushels of soybeans last month, compared with 189.038 million bushels processed in November and up 10% from the December 2022 crush of 177.505 million bushels.
The average daily crush rate of 6.301 million bushels in December matched November’s record-high daily crushing pace, NOPA data showed.
U.S. crush capacity has swelled as rising demand for vegetable oils to produce renewable fuels encouraged processors to build new plants or expand existing ones.
The soybean processing industry has been among the few bright spots for U.S. agriculture as crop exports are slumping and as prices for grain and oilseeds hover near multi-year lows.
NOPA’s December crush topped the average trade estimate of 193.120 million bushels in a Reuters survey of 10 analysts. Estimates ranged from 189.000 million to 197.380 million bushels, with a median of 193.200 million bushels.
Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of Dec. 31 rose for a second straight month to 1.360 billion lbs, above all trade estimates and the largest end-of-month oil supply since September.
NOPA members’ oil supplies were up 12.1% from the 1.214 billion lbs on hand at the end of November but down 24.0% from stocks totaling 1.791 billion lbs at the end of December last year.
Analysts, on average, had expected stocks to rise to 1.291 billion lbs, according to estimates gathered from seven analysts.
Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.190 billion to 1.350 billion lbs, with a median of 1.289 billion lbs.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today aloing with weakness in Soybean Oil. MPOB estimated production at 1.550 million tons, down 13.3% from November. Demand was also down, but ending stocks were estimated at 2.291 million tons, down 4.6%. Trends are turning up on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola was higher in consolidation trading after the release of the USDA reports. Current forecasts call for drier weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 615.00, 610.00, and 604.00 March, with resistance at 646.00, 656.00, and 665.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4010 and 4220 April. Support is at 3830, 3800, and 3770 April, with resistance at 3890, 3950, and 4050 April.
Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov
January 59 Mar 155 Mar
100 Mar
90 Mar
February
61 Mar 155 Mar 100 Mar 85 Mar
March
64 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 80 Mar
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 847.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 847.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 830.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 802.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 855.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 855.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 837.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 810.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 847.50 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 717.50 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,880.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 246.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6457)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 17
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 92,893 lots, or 4.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,817 4,843 4,793 4,801 4,802 4,820 18 69,764 167,097
May-24 4,780 4,810 4,772 4,782 4,776 4,790 14 17,928 43,988
Jul-24 4,723 4,759 4,706 4,716 4,715 4,734 19 3,837 13,191
Sep-24 4,722 4,740 4,689 4,697 4,699 4,718 19 1,318 7,753
Nov-24 4,695 4,706 4,670 4,670 4,678 4,691 13 46 193
Jan-25 – – – 4,661 4,661 4,661 0 0 7
Corn
Turnover: 618,014 lots, or 14.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,352 2,355 2,325 2,326 2,352 2,339 -13 64,110 225,164
May-24 2,380 2,385 2,354 2,357 2,379 2,371 -8 463,672 807,585
Jul-24 2,406 2,410 2,384 2,385 2,401 2,398 -3 66,698 232,790
Sep-24 2,410 2,416 2,398 2,399 2,404 2,407 3 20,070 98,262
Nov-24 2,364 2,368 2,357 2,359 2,360 2,362 2 2,481 15,531
Jan-25 2,345 2,354 2,340 2,340 2,340 2,346 6 983 1,186
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,275,199 lots, or 39.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,333 3,363 3,266 3,269 3,295 3,315 20 114,605 122,994
May-24 3,084 3,098 3,050 3,054 3,064 3,076 12 948,347 1,657,901
Jul-24 3,085 3,096 3,048 3,051 3,065 3,073 8 50,480 229,664
Aug-24 3,167 3,185 3,134 3,134 3,157 3,153 -4 7,405 50,148
Sep-24 3,160 3,171 3,119 3,120 3,145 3,148 3 144,038 534,410
Nov-24 3,153 3,157 3,108 3,108 3,135 3,133 -2 4,324 38,275
Dec-24 3,160 3,167 3,123 3,126 3,145 3,147 2 2,986 8,667
Jan-25 3,149 3,152 3,115 3,117 3,144 3,133 -11 3,014 8,121
Palm Oil
Turnover: 641,327 lots, or 47.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-24 7,380 7,452 7,272 7,306 7,344 7,348 4 920 3,154
Mar-24 7,470 7,528 7,352 7,382 7,412 7,436 24 7,786 15,466
Apr-24 7,450 7,500 7,338 7,368 7,380 7,420 40 783 3,841
May-24 7,384 7,444 7,276 7,298 7,330 7,364 34 575,332 409,181
Jun-24 7,268 7,316 7,182 7,204 7,230 7,254 24 1,355 2,957
Jul-24 7,170 7,196 6,622 7,088 7,120 7,030 -90 588 1,509
Aug-24 7,054 7,098 6,570 6,984 7,012 6,974 -38 262 1,475
Sep-24 6,938 7,004 6,894 6,908 6,914 6,956 42 53,788 56,725
Oct-24 6,890 6,950 6,866 6,866 6,864 6,906 42 173 387
Nov-24 6,848 6,910 6,848 6,850 6,826 6,874 48 241 569
Dec-24 6,860 6,880 6,826 6,832 6,812 6,860 48 38 73
Jan-25 6,840 6,878 6,812 6,812 6,824 6,854 30 61 83
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 604,374 lots, or 45.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,778 7,836 7,652 7,660 7,750 7,746 -4 6,872 19,893
May-24 7,520 7,574 7,402 7,410 7,488 7,490 2 535,918 594,916
Jul-24 7,420 7,482 7,340 7,344 7,412 7,412 0 4,780 26,163
Aug-24 7,382 7,438 7,310 7,320 7,376 7,378 2 1,288 12,464
Sep-24 7,350 7,400 7,276 7,286 7,334 7,344 10 54,707 86,097
Nov-24 7,288 7,368 7,254 7,260 7,308 7,308 0 541 4,351
Dec-24 7,368 7,396 7,296 7,310 7,334 7,346 12 84 1,263
Jan-25 7,330 7,398 7,280 7,300 7,318 7,338 20 184 153
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.