AgMaster Report 01/17/2024

MAR BEAN

On Friday 1-12-24, the USDA issued their January WASDE Report – which came in higher in most all categories – production 4,165BB (Dec-4.129), yield 50.6 (Dec-49.8) & stocks 280MB (Dec-245). However, Qtly stocks came in under 2022 at 3000 (3021). The mkt action late Friday was supportive with a 30 cent rally off the spike low at 1203 – which suggests a spike-capitulation low! The higher production & yield #’s of the 2023 crop were basically old news as the crop has been in for several months! As well, more dryness issues are popping up in N Brazil where private estimators today pegged that crop at 149mmt (USDA -157)! Also export inspections came in at 1.264mmt (lw-1.040)! The mkt is stabilizing due to exp & S/A dry

 

MAR CORN

Much like the beans, the, USDA raised production, yield & carry-out in corn to 15.342BB, 177.3 & 2.162mb. The mkt registered single-digit losses – now at a price level which is cheaper than South America – especially with the drop in the US Dollar in the last 2 months! This should welcome exports thru the 1^st Qtr! The supplies are ample but the mkt price has discounted this! Today, the mkt’s recovery from Friday was stymied by a higher US Dollar! Export intentions were 875,621mmt – just under last week’s 1,092! This morning Mexico purchased 124,000mt of US Corn!

 

MAR WHT

The lone bright spot in the Januar WASDE was definitely wht with WW seedings reduced from 36.7ma to 34.4! And their stockpiles were pegged at 648mb under both the pre-report estimate & December!  But these positives were sabotaged by the higher corn & bean prod, yield & carry-out! Today, with the winter artic storm subsiding & an elevated US $, Mar wht lost ground! Going forward, the mkt is anticipating more Chinese export demand – just like its “sister mkts” corn & beans!

 

FEB CAT

The Feb Cat mkt has been supported by the brutal polar vortex that has gripped the Midwest in the past 5 days – slowing weight gain & increasing death loss! And even though relief is coming, the production for the first 3 quarters is pegged to be 5-8% under 2023! And as well, post-holiday demand is starting surface – leading today to the highest close since late November!

 

FEB HOGS

Even with the Artic cold spell brutalizing livestock in the Midwest the last 4 days, Feb Hogs did not follow their sister mkt – Feb Cat higher today – instead closing $1.00 lower off lower Chinese demand & an export-discouraging higher US Dollar! Better retail demand is needed – going forward – for the contract to extend it’s $8.00 rally – which commenced after contract lows were scored on the first Tuesday of January!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337