Softs Report 1/12/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed er yesterday as the market prepared for the USDA reports thst will be released later todaay. Demand for US Cotton in the export market has improved over the last couple of months and was very strong last week. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand has been down. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall, but Brazil production prospects are said to be very strong.
Overnight News: The Delta will get showers and storms and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and storms and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have storms and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 77.54 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 2,213 bales, from 3,267 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 79.60, 78.90, and 78.30 March, with resistance of 81.70, 83.10 and 83.40 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jan 11
As of Jan 5. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Dec 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mar 24 25,592 26,159 -567 21,700 21,368 332
May 24 13,766 13,113 653 3,457 3,270 187
Jul 24 18,068 17,571 497 3,133 3,135 -2
Oct 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 24 8,077 7,854 223 31,499 31,662 -163
Mar 25 608 502 106 1,026 56 970
May 25 613 525 88 370 17 353
Jul 25 431 431 0 4 4 0
Dec 25 542 498 44 3,550 3,436 114
Mar 25 88 0 88 0 0 0
Total 67,785 66,653 1,132 64,739 62,948 1,791
Open Open Change
Int Int
Dec 23 0 0 0
Mar 24 93,917 92,771 1,146
May 24 44,020 42,509 1,511
Jul 24 35,358 31,802 3,556
Oct 24 121 36 85
Dec 24 26,242 25,145 1,097
Mar 25 2,798 2,735 63
May 25 64 39 25
Jul 25 59 27 32
Dec 25 43 43 0
Dec 25 0 0 0
Total 202,622 195,107 7,515

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower once again yesterday again on what appeared to be long liquidation and new selling from speculators as the downside price action continued. The moves imply that supply is finally getting bigger than demand and imply that consumer demand has dropped significantly in recent weeks. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 292.00, 289.00, and 286.00 March, with resistance at 320.00, 327.00, and 341.00 March.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower yesterday on index fund buying in New York and as traders looked to balance the spread between the two markets. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas and Vietnamese and Brazilian producers remain reluctant sellers. Brazil production areas are seeing some very beneficial rainfall this current week. Arabica and Robusta areas were affected by drought, but the current forecasts call for a lot of help in affected areas. Brazil weather remains uneven but is improving for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.258 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 175.14 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 179.00, 168.00, and 165.00 March, and resistance is at 195.00, 200.00 and 204.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2820, 2780, and 2750 March, with resistance at 3020, 3050, and 3080 March.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and held support areas on the daily charts. So far, the markets have failed to confirm a new up trend this week but prices have been firming. Brazil weather forecasts call for dryness in the south and continued scattered showers in central and northern areas this week. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas but has noted that India has changed its Ethanol policy to make more Sugar available to the market. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested, so shipment of Sugar has been slower. UNICA said that the Brazil Sugarcane crush was 4.87 million tons in the second half of December, up 80% from last year. Sugar production was 235,800 tons, up 36% from last year. Ethanol production was 526.1 million liters, up 63% from last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2300 and 2480 March. Support is at 2120, 2060, and 2040 March and resistance is at 2190, 2250, and 2310 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 651.00 and 692.00 March. Support is at 610.00, 597.00, and 595.00 March, with resistance at 633.00, 639.00, and 645.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher again yesterday and trends are mixed on the daily charts. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing.. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest is starting in parts of West Africa so the losses will become minor for now. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.109 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 3950 March. Support is at 4040, 3980, and 3970 March, with resistance at 4280, 4340, and 4400 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 3330, 3290, and 3220 March, with resistance at 3600, 3650, and 3680 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322