Grains Report 1/12/2024

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DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production
(Production in million bushels)
(Yield in bushels per acre)
(Harvested area in million acres)
USDA USDA
Average Range December 2022-2023
Corn Production 15,221 15,068-15,330 15,234 13,715
Corn Yield 174.9 174.0-176.0 174.9 173.4
Harvested Acres 87.0 86.6-87.2 87.1 79.1
Soybean Production 4,123 4,074-4,162 4,129 4,270
Soybean Yield 49.8 49.5-50.3 49.9 49.6
Harvested Acres 82.8 82.3-83.0 82.8 86.2
****
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (millions)
USDA USDA
Average Range December 2022-23
Corn 2,105 1,961-2,253 2,131 1,361
Soybeans 239 215-270 245 268
Wheat 658 630-681 659 582
****
World 2023-24 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24 USDA
Average Range December
Corn 313.9 310.0-318.0 315.2
Soybeans 112.2 110.0-115.0 114.2
Wheat 258.3 257.0-261.1 258.2
****
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2023 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Sept. 2023 Dec. 2022
Corn 12,010 11,070-12,380 1,361 10,821
Soybeans 2,982 2,950-3,039 268 3,021
Wheat 1,383 1,272-1,459 1,780 1,312
****
U.S. 2024 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
Average Range USDA 2023
All Winter Wheat 35.9 34.5-39.4 36.7
Hard Red Winter 25.2 24.0-27.3 25.7
Soft Red Winter 7.1 6.2-8.6 7.4
White Winter 3.6 3.4-3.8 3.6

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan 16, 2024 34 Jan 10, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan 16, 2024 10 Jan 11, 2024
ROUGH RICE January Jan 16, 2024 90 Jan 11, 2024
SOYBEAN January Jan 16, 2024 60 Jan 04, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday before the USDA reports that will be released today and the advent of very cold weather into the central US. There should be snow cover to protect the crops so little if any damage ius expected.. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be about 260.00 per tons FOB with Ukrainian prices about the same. News that Argentina will restructure its economy with a shock devaluation of the peso and structural changes inside the country created ideas that farmers would sell, but it is unlikely they will sell right away and might be better off to wait and see a calmer situation. EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 592, 568, and 562 March, with resistance at 632, 640, and 643 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 584, 572, and 560 March, with resistance at 637, 647, and 658 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 698 and 689 March. Support is at 699, 697, and 686 March, and resistance is at 720, 729, and 734 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mixed yesterday in consolidation trading before the USDA reports today. The trends are turning down on the daily charts. The Asian market remains strong with little on offer from India. Farmers appear quiet in the market and basis levels are reported to be steady, but industry and speculators have been busy. Most farmers are hunting and getting ready for the holidays and are not interested in Rice markets. Demand reports have been weaker lately and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1721, 1710, and 1707 March and resistance is at 1766, 1774, and 1785 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading and before the USDA reports coming later today. The rally also found some support from the CONAB Brail production estimate that was reduced for the coming year due to reduced Winter Corn planted area. Oats were higher. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. There are also forecasts for a lot of snow for the Midwest to keep farmers inside and not opening the bins. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. Showers have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. Significant rains are forecast for central and northern areas. Up to one to three inches of rain are in the forecast for this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 445 March. Support is at 450, 447, and 444 March, and resistance is at 464, 469, and 472 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 351, 338, and 330 March, and resistance is at 392, 402, and 405 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday on the Brazjl CONAB reports. CONAB estimated production down at just over 155 million tons, but this would still be a new record production. Most private analysts are below this estimate, but USDA is likely to be at or above this estimate in its data on Friday. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil is expected to continue through this weekendSoybean Meal was weaker on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. There are some forecasts for significant rains and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and less wet conditions in the south. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. Our source suggests that production in Brazil could be much less due to the extreme weather seen already. Brazil has been mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1234, 1224, and 1212 March, and resistance is at 1265, 1281, and 1296 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 360.00 March. Support is at 362.00, 359.00, 3nd 356.00 March, and resistance is at 376.00, 381.00, and 386.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4700, 4660, a6nd 4620 March, with resistance at 4900, 5020, and 5170 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday in reaction to weaker than expected December production and stocks data posted by MPOB. There had been concerns about too dry weather caused by El Nino. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola was higher yesterday before the release of the USDA reports today and as the Brazil weather forecasts continue to call for rains and showers. Current forecasts call for drier weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 610.00, 604.00, and 598.00 March, with resistance at 646.00, 656.00, and 665.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3600, 3570, and 3540 March, with resistance at 3850, 3890, and 3820 March.

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Fell 9.8% on Month to 349,075 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the January 1-10 period are estimated down 9.8% on month at 349,075 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
January 1-10 December 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 77,955 90,340
RBD Palm Oil 18,300 25,521
RBD Palm Stearin 18,860 28,720
Crude Palm Oil 84,220 115,220
Total* 349,075 386,986
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Malaysia’s December Palm Oil Exports 1.33M Tons, Down 5.1%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 5.1% on month at 1.33 million metric tons in December, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the December crop data and revised numbers for November, issued by MPOB:
December November Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,550,797 1,788,870 Dn 13.31%
Palm Oil Exports 1,334,441 1,406,462 Dn 5.12%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 88,261 99,768 Dn 11.53%
Palm Oil Imports 36,573 39,696 Dn 7.87%
Closing Stocks 2,291,167 2,402,611 Dn 4.64%
Crude Palm Oil 1,197,939 1,322,662 Dn 9.43%
Processed Palm Oil 1,093,228 1,079,949 Up 1.23%

Midwest Weather Forecast Mixed precipitation. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 59 Mar 155 Mar
100 Mar
90 Mar

February
61 Mar 155 Mar 100 Mar 85 Mar

March
64 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 857.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 857.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 857.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 850.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 827.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 865.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 865.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 865.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 850.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 835.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 847.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 725.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,850.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 244.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6457)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 76,645 lots, or .37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 – – – 4,757 4,757 4,757 0 0 10
Mar-24 4,805 4,806 4,768 4,776 4,788 4,783 -5 57,151 173,122
May-24 4,777 4,778 4,751 4,754 4,767 4,758 -9 13,972 44,183
Jul-24 4,726 4,734 4,703 4,703 4,726 4,713 -13 3,358 10,330
Sep-24 4,716 4,720 4,693 4,693 4,714 4,702 -12 2,127 7,609
Nov-24 4,695 4,702 4,672 4,672 4,694 4,679 -15 37 198
Corn
Turnover: 670,890 lots, or 16.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 – – – 2,335 2,335 2,335 0 0 1,000
Mar-24 2,370 2,376 2,348 2,349 2,358 2,359 1 68,245 234,277
May-24 2,401 2,407 2,374 2,375 2,387 2,389 2 521,090 741,385
Jul-24 2,420 2,422 2,394 2,395 2,401 2,406 5 58,446 209,801
Sep-24 2,418 2,418 2,393 2,394 2,402 2,404 2 18,828 90,584
Nov-24 2,356 2,370 2,343 2,348 2,357 2,353 -4 4,281 15,043
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,493,541 lots, or 4.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 – – – 3,634 3,634 3,634 0 0 90
Mar-24 3,410 3,414 3,313 3,327 3,414 3,354 -60 133,552 149,503
May-24 3,127 3,131 3,075 3,078 3,125 3,098 -27 1,126,347 1,591,570
Jul-24 3,121 3,124 3,076 3,077 3,118 3,097 -21 71,296 256,039
Aug-24 3,222 3,222 3,171 3,174 3,204 3,192 -12 10,255 56,500
Sep-24 3,195 3,202 3,158 3,160 3,189 3,176 -13 144,800 505,610
Nov-24 3,172 3,181 3,144 3,145 3,172 3,160 -12 5,865 36,071
Dec-24 3,166 3,173 3,137 3,139 3,159 3,157 -2 1,426 7,049
Palm Oil
Turnover: 664,034 lots, or 48.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 – – – 7,128 7,128 7,128 0 0 702
Feb-24 7,238 7,346 7,220 7,336 7,230 7,296 66 1,787 4,210
Mar-24 7,276 7,412 7,276 7,402 7,290 7,350 60 5,489 14,975
Apr-24 7,250 7,382 7,248 7,374 7,250 7,304 54 2,352 3,842
May-24 7,260 7,344 7,222 7,338 7,234 7,278 44 605,577 411,379
Jun-24 7,196 7,252 7,162 7,248 7,178 7,214 36 1,440 3,035
Jul-24 7,122 7,164 7,098 7,150 7,110 7,138 28 302 1,241
Aug-24 7,068 7,080 7,028 7,064 7,042 7,054 12 187 1,450
Sep-24 7,020 7,028 6,972 6,992 6,998 6,992 -6 46,809 42,325
Oct-24 6,970 6,970 6,932 6,946 6,966 6,946 -20 36 309
Nov-24 6,928 6,932 6,900 6,922 6,940 6,914 -26 29 512
Dec-24 6,914 6,914 6,886 6,904 6,926 6,900 -26 26 49
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 553,194 lots, or 41.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 – – – 7,796 7,796 7,796 0 0 933
Mar-24 7,772 7,802 7,730 7,752 7,804 7,758 -46 7,786 22,983
May-24 7,526 7,538 7,462 7,508 7,530 7,494 -36 501,146 585,982
Jul-24 7,452 7,464 7,398 7,430 7,444 7,440 -4 8,577 27,724
Aug-24 7,446 7,450 7,382 7,418 7,430 7,404 -26 1,013 12,682
Sep-24 7,422 7,422 7,352 7,388 7,392 7,376 -16 34,239 74,422
Nov-24 7,376 7,382 7,328 7,362 7,366 7,354 -12 349 4,113
Dec-24 7,394 7,402 7,360 7,380 7,390 7,372 -18 84 1,191
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322