Softs Report 1/11/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 11
For the week ended Jan 4, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 128.1 0.0 15393.2 15060.7 5450.4 200.4
hrw 11.4 0.0 2684.0 4148.2 839.1 25.6
srw 0.9 0.0 4324.7 2390.5 2379.6 90.8
hrs 88.1 0.0 4976.0 4523.0 1375.4 45.0
white 27.7 0.0 3047.3 3709.4 786.4 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 361.1 289.6 69.8 39.0
corn 487.6 0.0 30276.3 21996.2 16849.1 1072.7
soybeans 280.4 0.0 36826.0 44335.1 13048.7 153.6
soymeal 65.4 0.8 7213.4 6203.2 3684.4 6.6
soyoil -1.5 0.0 32.0 37.7 24.1 0.6
upland cotton 262.5 22.0 8885.9 8859.0 5386.3 665.7
pima cotton 2.0 0.0 191.3 123.2 58.7 2.7
sorghum 133.0 0.0 4066.1 360.9 1895.8 177.6
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.6 13.4 0.0
rice 52.7 0.0 1895.3 1102.3 776.7 0.0

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower yesterday as the market started to prepare for the Friday USDA reports. Demand for US Cotton in the export market has improved over the last couple of months and was very strong last week.. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand has been down. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall, but Brazil production prospects are said to be very strong.
Overnight News: The Delta will get showers and storms and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and storms and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have storms and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 76.60 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 3,232 bales, from 3,267 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 79.60, 78.90, and 78.30 March, with resistance of 81.70, 83.10 and 83.40 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday again on what appeared to be long liquidation and new selling from speculators as the downside price action continued. The moves imply that supply is finally getting bigger than demand and imply that consumer demand has dropped significantly in recent weeks. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 295.00, 292.00, and 289.00 March, with resistance at 320.00, 327.00, and 341.00 March.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher yesterday as rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas and as Vietnamese and Brazilian producers remain reluctant sellers. Brazil production areas are seeing some very beneficial rainfall this current week with up to one to three inches of rain in the forecast for some of the driest areas. Arabica and Robusta areas were affected by drought, but the current forecasts call for a lot of help in affected areas. Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.258 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 174.12 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 179.00, 168.00, and 165.00 March, and resistance is at 185.00, 187.00 and 192.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2820, 2780, and 2750 March, with resistance at 3020, 3050, and 3080 March.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday and so far the markets have failed to confirm a new up trend this week. Brazil weather forecasts call for dryness in the south and continued scattered showers in central and northern areas this week. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas but has noted that India has changed its Ethanol policy to make more Sugar available to the market. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2300 and 2480 March. Support is at 2120, 2060, and 2040 March and resistance is at 2190, 2250, and 2310 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 651.00 and 692.00 March. Support is at 610.00, 597.00, and 595.00 March, with resistance at 633.00, 639.00, and 645.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher again yesterday and trends are mixed on the daily charts. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest is starting in parts of West Africa so the losses will become minor for now. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.119 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 3950 March. Support is at 4040, 3980, and 3970 March, with resistance at 4200, 4280, and 4340 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 3330, 3290, and 3220 March, with resistance at 3520, 3600, and 3650 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322