Grains Report 1/11/2024

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production
(Production in million bushels)
(Yield in bushels per acre)
(Harvested area in million acres)
USDA USDA
Average Range December 2022-2023
Corn Production 15,221 15,068-15,330 15,234 13,715
Corn Yield 174.9 174.0-176.0 174.9 173.4
Harvested Acres 87.0 86.6-87.2 87.1 79.1
Soybean Production 4,123 4,074-4,162 4,129 4,270
Soybean Yield 49.8 49.5-50.3 49.9 49.6
Harvested Acres 82.8 82.3-83.0 82.8 86.2
****
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (millions)
USDA USDA
Average Range December 2022-23
Corn 2,105 1,961-2,253 2,131 1,361
Soybeans 239 215-270 245 268
Wheat 658 630-681 659 582
****
World 2023-24 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24 USDA
Average Range December
Corn 313.9 310.0-318.0 315.2
Soybeans 112.2 110.0-115.0 114.2
Wheat 258.3 257.0-261.1 258.2
****
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2023 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Sept. 2023 Dec. 2022
Corn 12,010 11,070-12,380 1,361 10,821
Soybeans 2,982 2,950-3,039 268 3,021
Wheat 1,383 1,272-1,459 1,780 1,312
****
U.S. 2024 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
Average Range USDA 2023
All Winter Wheat 35.9 34.5-39.4 36.7
Hard Red Winter 25.2 24.0-27.3 25.7
Soft Red Winter 7.1 6.2-8.6 7.4
White Winter 3.6 3.4-3.8 3.6

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 11
For the week ended Jan 4, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 128.1 0.0 15393.2 15060.7 5450.4 200.4
hrw 11.4 0.0 2684.0 4148.2 839.1 25.6
srw 0.9 0.0 4324.7 2390.5 2379.6 90.8
hrs 88.1 0.0 4976.0 4523.0 1375.4 45.0
white 27.7 0.0 3047.3 3709.4 786.4 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 361.1 289.6 69.8 39.0
corn 487.6 0.0 30276.3 21996.2 16849.1 1072.7
soybeans 280.4 0.0 36826.0 44335.1 13048.7 153.6
soymeal 65.4 0.8 7213.4 6203.2 3684.4 6.6
soyoil -1.5 0.0 32.0 37.7 24.1 0.6
upland cotton 262.5 22.0 8885.9 8859.0 5386.3 665.7
pima cotton 2.0 0.0 191.3 123.2 58.7 2.7
sorghum 133.0 0.0 4066.1 360.9 1895.8 177.6
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.6 13.4 0.0
rice 52.7 0.0 1895.3 1102.3 776.7 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan 12, 2024 100 Jan 10, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan 12, 2024 31 Jan 10, 2024
ROUGH RICE January Jan 12, 2024 41 Jan 10, 2024
SOYBEAN January Jan 12, 2024 218 Jan 02, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on buying before the USDA reports on Friday and the advent of very cold weather into the central US. There should be snow cover to protect the crops so little if any damage ius expected.. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be about 260.00 per tons FOB with Ukrainian prices about the same. News that Argentina will restructure its economy with a shock devaluation of the peso and structural changes inside the country created ideas that farmers would sell, but it is unlikely they will sell right away and might be better off to wait and see a calmer situation. EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 592, 568, and 562 March, with resistance at 632, 640, and 643 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 584, 572, and 560 March, with resistance at 637, 647, and 658 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 698 and 689 March. Support is at 699, 697, and 686 March, and resistance is at 720, 729, and 734 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday in consolidation trading before the USDA reports on Friday. The trends are turning down on the daily charts. The Asian market remains strong with little on offer from India. Farmers appear quiet in the market and basis levels are reported to be steady, but industry and speculators have been busy. Most farmers are hunting and getting ready for the holidays and are not interested in Rice markets. Demand reports have been weaker lately and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1721, 1710, and 1707 March and resistance is at 1766, 1774, and 1785 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading and before the USDA reports on Friday. The rally also found some support from the CONAB Brail production estimate that was reduced for the coming year due to reduced Winter Corn planted area. Oats were higher. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many havee sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. There are also forecasts for a lot of snow for the Midwest to keep farmers inside and not opening the bins. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. Showers have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. Significant rains are forecast for central and northern areas. Up to one to three inches of rain are in the forecast for this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 445 March. Support is at 450, 447, and 444 March, and resistance is at 464, 469, and 472 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 351, 338, and 330 March, and resistance is at 392, 402, and 405 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday on the Brazjl CONAB reports. CONAB estimated production down at just over 155 million tons, but this would still be a new record production. Most private analysts are below this estimate, but USDA is likely to be at or above this estimate in its data on Friday. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil is expected to continue through this weekendSoybean Meal was weaker on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. There are some forecasts for significant rains and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and less wet conditions in the south. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. Our source suggests that production in Brazil could be much less due to the extreme weather seen already. Brazil has been mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1234, 1224, and 1212 March, and resistance is at 1265, 1281, and 1296 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 360.00 March. Support is at 362.00, 359.00, 3nd 356.00 March, and resistance is at 376.00, 381.00, and 386.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4700, 4660, a6nd 4620 March, with resistance at 4900, 5020, and 5170 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday in reaction to weaker than expected December production and stocks data posted by MPOB. There had been concerns about too dry weather caused by El Nino. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola was lower yesterday and closed at new lows for the move in response to the CONAB estimates and as the Brazil weather forecasts continue to call for rains and showers. Current forecasts call for drier weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 610.00, 604.00, and 598.00 March, with resistance at 646.00, 656.00, and 665.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3600, 3570, and 3540 March, with resistance at 3790, 3850, and 3890 March.

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Fell 9.8% on Month to 349,075 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the January 1-10 period are estimated down 9.8% on month at 349,075 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
January 1-10 December 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 77,955 90,340
RBD Palm Oil 18,300 25,521
RBD Palm Stearin 18,860 28,720
Crude Palm Oil 84,220 115,220
Total* 349,075 386,986
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Malaysia’s December Palm Oil Exports 1.33M Tons, Down 5.1%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 5.1% on month at 1.33 million metric tons in December, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the December crop data and revised numbers for November, issued by MPOB:
December November Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,550,797 1,788,870 Dn 13.31%
Palm Oil Exports 1,334,441 1,406,462 Dn 5.12%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 88,261 99,768 Dn 11.53%
Palm Oil Imports 36,573 39,696 Dn 7.87%
Closing Stocks 2,291,167 2,402,611 Dn 4.64%
Crude Palm Oil 1,197,939 1,322,662 Dn 9.43%
Processed Palm Oil 1,093,228 1,079,949 Up 1.23%

Midwest Weather Forecast Mixed precipitation. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 59 Mar 155 Mar
100 Mar
90 Mar

February
61 Mar 155 Mar 100 Mar 85 Mar

March
64 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 847.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 847.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 847.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 837.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 820.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 855.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 855.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 855.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 845.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 827.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 840.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 722.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,820.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 243.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6396)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 93,233 lots, or 4.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 – – – 4,757 4,757 4,757 0 0 510
Mar-24 4,790 4,813 4,767 4,806 4,796 4,788 -8 72,877 168,651
May-24 4,782 4,788 4,750 4,779 4,769 4,767 -2 15,502 42,069
Jul-24 4,729 4,750 4,712 4,730 4,732 4,726 -6 3,259 8,874
Sep-24 4,718 4,738 4,700 4,719 4,722 4,714 -8 1,535 7,171
Nov-24 4,682 4,713 4,677 4,695 4,696 4,694 -2 60 183
Corn
Turnover: 1,272,787 lots, or 30.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,255 2,340 2,255 2,340 2,398 2,335 -63 53 1,050
Mar-24 2,331 2,401 2,315 2,375 2,348 2,358 10 158,410 238,916
May-24 2,350 2,431 2,340 2,406 2,372 2,387 15 959,521 733,688
Jul-24 2,373 2,449 2,360 2,421 2,388 2,401 13 105,560 207,807
Sep-24 2,371 2,444 2,357 2,417 2,384 2,402 18 40,662 89,664
Nov-24 2,331 2,398 2,318 2,360 2,340 2,357 17 8,581 14,990
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,232,001 lots, or 38.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 – – – 3,634 3,634 3,634 0 0 90
Mar-24 3,460 3,460 3,377 3,419 3,488 3,414 -74 125,966 153,281
May-24 3,140 3,145 3,108 3,135 3,152 3,125 -27 925,690 1,488,605
Jul-24 3,131 3,136 3,100 3,128 3,144 3,118 -26 50,990 265,243
Aug-24 3,227 3,227 3,190 3,219 3,228 3,204 -24 5,228 55,307
Sep-24 3,200 3,210 3,174 3,204 3,211 3,189 -22 119,162 477,586
Nov-24 3,170 3,189 3,154 3,184 3,187 3,172 -15 3,969 34,726
Dec-24 3,154 3,176 3,146 3,172 3,173 3,159 -14 996 6,723
Palm Oil
Turnover: 609,277 lots, or 44.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 7,100 7,132 7,100 7,132 7,080 7,128 48 498 702
Feb-24 7,228 7,280 7,190 7,238 7,146 7,230 84 2,751 4,358
Mar-24 7,246 7,334 7,246 7,310 7,218 7,290 72 5,471 14,941
Apr-24 7,216 7,310 7,216 7,280 7,166 7,250 84 1,522 4,772
May-24 7,206 7,292 7,188 7,256 7,158 7,234 76 570,833 412,375
Jun-24 7,130 7,232 7,130 7,196 7,096 7,178 82 1,051 2,623
Jul-24 7,092 7,146 7,086 7,130 7,048 7,110 62 265 1,191
Aug-24 7,044 7,080 7,018 7,070 6,986 7,042 56 312 1,444
Sep-24 7,000 7,040 6,960 7,018 6,960 6,998 38 26,184 37,809
Oct-24 6,970 6,988 6,938 6,972 6,932 6,966 34 211 310
Nov-24 6,950 6,950 6,920 6,932 6,924 6,940 16 160 506
Dec-24 6,940 6,940 6,900 6,930 6,900 6,926 26 19 46
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 466,213 lots, or 35.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 – – – 7,796 7,796 7,796 0 0 933
Mar-24 7,820 7,830 7,760 7,806 7,776 7,804 28 7,176 22,680
May-24 7,532 7,566 7,486 7,536 7,498 7,530 32 427,284 575,492
Jul-24 7,456 7,478 7,410 7,458 7,416 7,444 28 5,835 32,586
Aug-24 7,430 7,460 7,394 7,444 7,406 7,430 24 1,199 12,494
Sep-24 7,396 7,422 7,354 7,414 7,358 7,392 34 24,139 66,775
Nov-24 7,368 7,392 7,330 7,386 7,334 7,366 32 468 4,106
Dec-24 7,384 7,414 7,358 7,392 7,372 7,390 18 112 1,190
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322