Softs Report 01/08/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little lower last week in sideways trading. Demand for US Cotton in the export market has improved over the last couple of months and was very strong last week.. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand has been down. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall, but Brazil production prospects are said to be very strong.
Overnight News: The Delta will get a few showers and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see s fee showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have a few showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 76.23 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 3,232 bales, from 3,267 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 79.60, 78.90, and 78.30 March, with resistance of 81.70, 83.10 and 83.40 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 228,039
: Positions :
: 33,096 40,600 53,758 53,000 98,769 75,168 21,583 215,023 214,710: 13,016 13,328
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: 2,329) :
: -1,082 -3,288 3,944 -677 157 221 890 2,406 1,702: -77 627
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.5 17.8 23.6 23.2 43.3 33.0 9.5 94.3 94.2: 5.7 5.8
: Total Traders: 270 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 82 87 48 59 47 24 211 209:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week after a few weeks of downside price action. It was a price recovery week for futures as new demand was found. The moves imply that supply is finally getting bigger than demand and imply that consumer demand has dropped significantly in recent weeks. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 346.00 March. Support is at 317.00, 310.00, and 304.00 March, with resistance at 340.00, 353.00, and 363.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 2, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,817 :
: Positions :
: 3,261 4,670 900 173 54 2,043 1,171 484 753 696 2,552 :
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 :
: -374 -584 -11 43 0 -471 -127 34 173 -48 69 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.6 39.5 7.6 1.5 0.5 17.3 9.9 4.1 6.4 5.9 21.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 63 :
: 11 7 4 . . 15 6 . 10 14 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London closed a little higher on Friday. Both markets were lower for the week. Brazil production areas are seeing some very beneficial rainfall this current week with up to one to three inches of rain in the forecast for some of the driest areas. Arabica and Robusta areas are affected by drought, but the current forecasts call for a lot of help in affected areas. Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production, but there are reports of increasing Coffee availability from Vietnam.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.253 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 173.51 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 182.00, 179.00, and 176.00 March, and resistance is at 195.00, 200.00 and 203.00 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2600 and 2400 March. Support is at 2700, 2590, and 2520 March, with resistance at 2850, 2880, and 2950 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 273,788
: Positions :
: 48,768 26,212 87,527 53,672 141,528 73,322 9,290 263,289 264,557: 10,499 9,231
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: 3,837) :
: 690 271 3,145 1,633 334 -339 828 5,128 4,577: -1,291 -740
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.8 9.6 32.0 19.6 51.7 26.8 3.4 96.2 96.6: 3.8 3.4
: Total Traders: 389 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 110 89 119 98 118 52 26 327 295:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week in consolidation trading, and trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts. There are problems with Sugar availability at this time. Brazil weather forecasts now call for dryness in the south and continued scattered showers in central and northern areas this week. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas but has noted that India has changed its Ethanol policy to make more Sugar available to the market. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2040, 2010, and 1990 March and resistance is at 2190, 2250, and 2310 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 590.00, 585.00, and 576.00 March, with resistance at 625.00, 633.00, and 639.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,116,902
: Positions :
: 75,706 77,171 293,678 448,243 599,846 218,931 84,671 1,036,558 1,055,366: 80,343 61,535
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: 34,452) :
: 359 517 2,328 27,934 22,464 3,478 6,379 34,098 31,688: 354 2,764
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.8 6.9 26.3 40.1 53.7 19.6 7.6 92.8 94.5: 7.2 5.5
: Total Traders: 219 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 44 73 71 70 37 23 197 177:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower last week and at the bottom of the weekly trading range. Tops on the charts could finally be forming. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest is starting in parts of West Africa so the losses will become minor for now. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.139 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 4190, 4150, and 4100 March, with resistance at 4340, 4370, and 4400 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3480, 3440, and 3410 March, with resistance at 3600, 3630, and 3660 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 455,299
: Positions :
: 87,167 44,148 195,453 113,004 184,219 44,021 15,918 439,644 439,737: 15,655 15,562
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: 11,893) :
: 299 333 7,705 3,033 999 1,126 1,585 12,163 10,622: -270 1,271
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.1 9.7 42.9 24.8 40.5 9.7 3.5 96.6 96.6: 3.4 3.4
: Total Traders: 270 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 102 69 96 37 46 34 17 220 191:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322