Grains Report 01/08/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan 09, 2024 20 Jan 02, 2024
ROUGH RICE January Jan 09, 2024 76 Jan 05, 2024
SOYBEAN January Jan 09, 2024 138 Dec 28, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher last week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be about 260.00 per tons FOB. News that Argentina will restructure its economy with a shock devaluation of the peso and structural changes inside the country created ideas that farmers would sell, but it is unlikely they will sell right away and might be better off to wait and see a calmer situation. EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are starting to increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 591 March. Support is at 591, 568, and 562 March, with resistance at 622, 630, and 640 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 586 March. Support is at 612, 596, and 584 March, with resistance at 637, 647, and 658 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 698 and 689 March. Support is at 699, 697, and 686 March, and resistance is at 720, 729, and 734 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 416,057
: Positions :
: 49,279 114,193 121,592 78,341 91,876 137,438 52,887 386,650 380,548: 29,406 35,508
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: 3,510) :
: 5,788 6,243 -934 2,493 1,312 -2,078 -1,244 5,269 5,376: -1,759 -1,866
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 27.4 29.2 18.8 22.1 33.0 12.7 92.9 91.5: 7.1 8.5
: Total Traders: 359 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 106 129 90 90 46 32 301 290:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 221,600
: Positions :
: 26,106 65,901 58,773 41,746 52,877 75,685 23,970 202,310 201,520: 19,290 20,080
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: 5,490) :
: -7,079 -1,739 5,245 4,257 3,260 3,796 -1,330 6,220 5,436: -730 54
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 29.7 26.5 18.8 23.9 34.2 10.8 91.3 90.9: 8.7 9.1
: Total Traders: 215 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 33 60 56 55 66 37 17 161 168:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 2, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 59,580 :
: Positions :
: 36,104 10,117 1,921 194 169 616 27,348 6,242 1,822 1,708 3,385 :
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 :
: -862 -335 133 -14 -105 -356 -881 338 41 320 54 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 60.6 17.0 3.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 45.9 10.5 3.1 2.9 5.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 107 :
: 44 34 5 . . 5 26 9 9 6 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower last week after making wild moves higher and lower during the week. The trends are turning down on the daily charts after turning up the previous day. It has been extremely violent in this market to start the year and no one is sure why. The Asian market remains strong with little on offer from India. Farmers appear quiet in the market and basis levels are reported to be steady, but industry and speculators have been busy. Most farmers are hunting and getting ready for the holidays and are not interested in Rice markets. Demand reports have been solid to strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1721, 1710, and 1707 March and resistance is at 1752, 1761, and 1774 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 2, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 11,955 :
: Positions :
: 3,098 10,440 117 0 58 4,212 213 163 1,345 109 224 :
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 :
: -138 -97 4 0 58 123 10 72 -39 106 -212 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.9 87.3 1.0 0.0 0.5 35.2 1.8 1.4 11.3 0.9 1.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 64 :
: 18 19 . 0 . 13 . . 14 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower last week and trends started to turn down on the weekly charts. Oats were lower as well. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low overall, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some showers have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. These conditions could change this week as significant rains are forecast for central and northern areas. Up to one to three inches of rain are in the forecast for this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 463, 458, and 445 March. Support is at 459, 456, and 453 March, and resistance is at 472, 475, and 482 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 338, 332, and 326 March, and resistance is at 380, 392, and 402 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,601,347
: Positions :
: 147,875 352,190 441,337 486,083 465,207 346,640 128,672 1,421,934 1,387,405: 179,413 213,941
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: 68,024) :
: -6,276 14,140 40,623 19,866 -3,009 13,744 7,015 67,956 58,769: 68 9,255
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.2 22.0 27.6 30.4 29.1 21.6 8.0 88.8 86.6: 11.2 13.4
: Total Traders: 739 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 104 148 174 326 321 53 35 595 597:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower last week on reports of better rains in Brazil. The precipitation is expected to continue this week. Up to three inches are in the forecast for central and northern Brazil, Soybean Meal the weakest on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. There are some forecasts for significant rains and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and less wet conditions in the south. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. Our source suggests that production in Brazil could be much less due to the extreme weather seen already. Brazil has been mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1268 and 1239 March. Support is at 1255, 1244, and 1243 March, and resistance is at 1296, 1309, and 1327 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 372.00 and 360.00 March. Support is at 365.00, 362.00, 3nd 359.00 March, and resistance is at 386.00, 392.00, and 397.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4700, 4660, a6nd 4620 March, with resistance at 4920, 5020, and 5170 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 789,479
: Positions :
: 64,231 99,885 219,250 286,226 361,247 163,025 37,741 732,732 718,123: 56,747 71,356
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: 36,774) :
: 1,523 13,324 27,439 15,412 -2,947 371 763 44,745 38,579: -7,971 -1,805
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 12.7 27.8 36.3 45.8 20.6 4.8 92.8 91.0: 7.2 9.0
: Total Traders: 531 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97 136 158 188 204 50 29 427 446:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 521,118
: Positions :
: 39,756 110,463 131,163 174,433 218,440 143,884 32,274 489,236 492,341: 31,882 28,777
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: 16,891) :
: 3,508 3,167 4,805 4,764 3,264 5,084 4,283 18,161 15,519: -1,270 1,372
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.6 21.2 25.2 33.5 41.9 27.6 6.2 93.9 94.5: 6.1 5.5
: Total Traders: 307 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 83 95 87 85 42 18 242 235:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 489,873
: Positions :
: 65,012 68,671 120,521 133,438 243,641 123,689 22,473 442,660 455,306: 47,213 34,566
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: -18,387) :
: -5,746 13,153 -17,241 5,444 -13,855 3,437 1,148 -14,106 -16,795: -4,281 -1,592
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 14.0 24.6 27.2 49.7 25.2 4.6 90.4 92.9: 9.6 7.1
: Total Traders: 317 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 70 90 107 104 42 21 266 242:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was slightly higher last week despite ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil and as the weather situation is good for production. There had been concerns about too dry weather caused by El Nino. Production was high in the MPOB reports but is expected to drop seasonally in future reports. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola was lower last week and closed at new lows for the move on a change in the Brazil weather forecasts. Current forecasts call for drier weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 634.00 March. Support is at 634.00, 628.00, and 622.00 March, with resistance at 656.00, 665.00, and 677.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3660, 3580, and 3530 March. Support is at 3600, 3570, and 3540 March, with resistance at 3690, 3750, and 3790 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 2, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 38,439 :
: Positions :
: 25,490 19,980 860 7,478 1,640 0 400 200 2,060 552 8,189 :
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 :
: -3,720 -390 80 -1,430 -80 0 -380 0 300 -1,140 149 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 66.3 52.0 2.2 19.5 4.3 0.0 1.0 0.5 5.4 1.4 21.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 8 9 . . . 0 . . 5 5 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 2, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 237,557 :
: Positions :
: 195,650 84,976 3,446 2,707 4,385 6,005 114,726 16,550 3,034 5,264 7,117 :
: Changes from: December 26, 2023 :
: -7,135 -4,383 270 115 344 173 -2,410 -834 152 -106 309 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 82.4 35.8 1.5 1.1 1.8 2.5 48.3 7.0 1.3 2.2 3.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 288 :
: 51 52 4 5 5 8 95 18 46 52 39 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

\Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 59 Mar 155 Mar
100 Mar
90 Mar

February
61 Mar 155 Mar 100 Mar 85 Mar

March
64 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 825.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 822.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 822.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 817.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 805.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 832.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 830.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 830.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 825.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 812.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 825.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 710.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,720.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 240.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6483)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322