Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Softs Report 01/02/2024
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher last week in sideways trading. USDA released its weekly export sales report and the volumes sold were big and included some significant sales to China. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand has been down. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall, but Brazil production prospects are said to be very strong.
Overnight News: The Delta will get a few showers and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see s fee showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have a few showeers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 76.96 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 3,267 bales, from 3,267 bales yesterday.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 26, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 225,710
: Positions :
: 34,178 43,888 49,814 53,677 98,612 74,948 20,694 212,617 213,008: 13,093 12,701
: Changes from: December 19, 2023 (Change in open interest: 2,237) :
: -2,425 -280 3,589 110 -3,154 1,302 1,968 2,576 2,123: -339 115
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.1 19.4 22.1 23.8 43.7 33.2 9.2 94.2 94.4: 5.8 5.6
: Total Traders: 271 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 79 90 49 58 46 24 213 210:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed mostly lower last week and the market continues to correct from the huge rally now completed. January closed higher before deliveries start next week. The moves imply that supply is finally getting bigger than demand and implies that consumer demand has dropped significantly in recent weeks. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 309.00, 304.00, and 301.00 March, with resistance at 322.00, 330.00, and 340.00 March.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 26, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,520 :
: Positions :
: 3,635 5,254 911 130 54 2,514 1,298 449 580 744 2,483 :
: Changes from: December 19, 2023 :
: 1,130 -656 -10 68 -37 -360 490 266 24 3 808 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.0 42.0 7.3 1.0 0.4 20.1 10.4 3.6 4.6 5.9 19.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 62 :
: 12 7 4 . . 15 6 5 7 15 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets absorbed some significant selling late last week to close the week lower. Brazil production areas are now expected to see some very beneficial rainfall over the coming week. Arabica and Robusta areas are affected by drought but the current forecasts call for a lot of help in affected areas. Espiritu Santo is the most affected state, but all states are being hurt to some degree. Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production, but there are reports of increasing Coffee availability from Vietnam. The weekly continuation chart for New York shows a gap that would be filed by trading down to 183.75 basis March futures.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.251 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 179.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 185.00, 183.00, and 179.00 March, and resistance is at 203.00, 206.00 and 209.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2820, 2770, and 2700 March, with resistance at 2950, 2970, and 3020 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 26, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 269,951
: Positions :
: 48,079 25,941 84,382 52,040 141,194 73,661 8,463 258,161 259,980: 11,790 9,971
: Changes from: December 19, 2023 (Change in open interest: -701) :
: -670 996 372 249 -1,379 -53 28 -103 17: -599 -719
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.8 9.6 31.3 19.3 52.3 27.3 3.1 95.6 96.3: 4.4 3.7
: Total Traders: 376 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 104 85 106 98 120 51 24 311 284:
SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed slightly lower last week and London closed a little higher. There are problems with Sugar availability at this time. Brazil weather forecasts now call for wet in the south and continued isolated to scattered showers in central and northern areas this week. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas but has noted that India has changed its Ethanol policy to make more Sugar available to the market. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1930 March and resistance is at 2190, 2250, and 2310 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 590.00, 585.00, and 576.00 March, with resistance at 625.00, 633.00, and 639.00 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 26, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,082,449
: Positions :
: 75,347 76,654 291,351 420,309 577,382 215,453 78,292 1,002,460 1,023,679: 79,989 58,771
: Changes from: December 19, 2023 (Change in open interest: 38,927) :
: -2,917 8,257 12,790 24,798 12,415 4,295 4,103 38,965 37,565: -38 1,363
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.0 7.1 26.9 38.8 53.3 19.9 7.2 92.6 94.6: 7.4 5.4
: Total Traders: 224 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 49 76 72 70 36 23 200 182:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower and near the lows of the week as funds and other trade interests sold to square up positions before the end of the year. Trends have been up but tops could finally be forming. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest is starting in parts of West Africa so the losses will become minor for now. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.167 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 4190, 4150, and 4100 March, with resistance at 4280, 4340, and 4370 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3480, 3440, and 3400 March, with resistance at 3600, 3630, and 3660 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 26, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 443,406
: Positions :
: 86,868 43,815 187,748 109,971 183,220 42,895 14,333 427,481 429,115: 15,925 14,291
: Changes from: December 19, 2023 (Change in open interest: 11,100) :
: -3,008 2,505 9,468 4,923 -115 -399 -438 10,984 11,420: 116 -320
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.6 9.9 42.3 24.8 41.3 9.7 3.2 96.4 96.8: 3.6 3.2
: Total Traders: 268 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 95 73 87 37 45 33 15 213 184:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322