Softs Report 12/19/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little lower yesterday in follow through selling. Daily chart trends turned down with the price action on Friday. The weekly export sales report showed diminished sales. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand has been down. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see big rains again and below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 75.03 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 5,141 bales, from 5,268 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 78.20, 75.80, and 75.70 Marh. Support is at 78.60, 77.70, and 77.00 March, with resistance of 80.70, 83.10 and 83.70 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday but remain in a trading range. The short term trends are still mixed in this market. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 361.00, 352.00, and 346.00 January, with resistance at 398.00, 405.00, and 408.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher yesterday on less than expected rainfall for Brazil production areas. London closed lower on an uptick on offers from Asia. Arabica and Robusta areas are affected by drought and forecasts call for reduced rainfall totals this week to keep ideas of stress alive. Espiritu Santo is the most affected state, but all states are being hurt to some degree. Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production, but there are reports of increasing Coffee availability from Vietnam although not enough to meet all of the demand yet. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia have been a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.242 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 178.13 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that there were 7 contracts tendered for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 233 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 200.00 and 213.00 March. Support is at 185.00, 183.00, and 179.00 March, and resistance is at 194.00, 197.00 and 200.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2800, 2700, and 2660 January, with resistance at 2880, 2910, and 2940 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on reports of greatly increased availability of Ukrainian Sugar in the EU. Less than expected rains fell in Brazil last week and Brazil weather forecasts now call for wet in the south and continued scattered showers in central and northern areas this week. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas but has noted that India has changed its Ethanol policy to make more Sugar available to the market. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south but has been lacking in the north. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2120, 2090, and 2060 March and resistance is at 2250, 2310, and 2390 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 616.00 March. Support is at 606.00, 600.00, and 594.00 March, with resistance at 623.00, 639.00, and 6748.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday and held to a trading range. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.248 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 4190, 4150, and 4100 March, with resistance at 4310, 4340, and 4370 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3480, 3440, and 3400 March, with resistance at 3600, 3630, and 3660 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322