Grains Report 12/19/2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Dec 18
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Dec 18, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 14, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 12/14/2023 12/07/2023 12/15/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,614 1,855
CORN 947,418 725,330 826,955 10,140,845 7,995,105
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 200
MIXED 0 0 0 24 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,794 6,486
RYE 0 72 0 72 0
SORGHUM 269,751 340,384 3,953 1,695,782 360,974
SOYBEANS 1,411,567 999,790 1,967,068 21,168,555 25,515,016
SUNFLOWER 144 576 0 4,109 2,160
WHEAT 284,792 317,156 304,108 8,926,243 11,440,600
Total 2,913,672 2,383,308 3,102,084 41,941,038 45,322,396
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as no new big export sales have been reported for a week now. News that Argentina will restructure its economy with a shock devaluation of the peso and structural changes inside the country created ideas that farmers would sell, but it is unlikely they will sell right away and might be better off to wait and see a more calm situation. China has been a big buyer of US Wheat in the last couple of weeks and helped produce a big rally in the market. China has stopped buying for now and the market gave back about half the rally before finding its footing yesterday. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that the crop is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are starting to increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 603, 591, and 568 March, with resistance at 632, 653, and 670 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 620, 612, and 590 March, with resistance at 644, 658, and 670 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 709, 699, and 692 March, and resistance is at 749, 763, and 768 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday and trends turned up on the daily charts again. Farmers appear quiet in the market and basis levels are reported to be steady. Most farmers are hunting and getting ready for the holidays and are not interested in Rice markets. Demand reports have been solid to strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia. The sales were very good last week again.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1761 and 1784 January. Support is at 1704, 1680, and 1667 January and resistance is at 1730, 1746, and 1757 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on ideas of big US production. The market anticipates increased selling from producers, but many have sold enough and elevators and [processors are reported to be full. Oats were higher. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some showers have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is still much too wet.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 471, 468, and 4685 March, and resistance is at 489, 493, and 496 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 375, 353, and 338 March, and resistance is at 392, 402, and 405 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher on less than expected rains in central and northern Brazil last week and forecasts for reduced rains this week. Too much rain was reported for southern Brazil again. There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week. The market also heard that Argentina has devalued the Peso in a drastic way and plans to cut government spending in a major change for the economy there. Soybeans export taxes could be cut but Corn and Wheat taxes raised. The market anticipates an uptick in selling but might have to wait until the economy becomes more stable. Over a million tons of Soybeans were sold in two days late last week.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed o up with objectives of 1361 January. Support is at 1302, 1292, and 1270 January, and resistance is at 1344, 1352, and 1365 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 406.00, 398.00, and 388.00 January, and resistance is at 414.00, 418.00, and 422.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4860, 4820, and 4590 January, with resistance at 5280, 5360, and 5470 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher along with strength in Soybean Oil and despite ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported improved demand for Palm Oil. Production was high in the MPOB reports but is expected to drop seasonally in future reports. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola closed higher with Chicago Soybeans and the Argentine news. Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 640.00, 636.00, and 630.00 January, with resistance at 663.00, 678.00, and 682.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3670, 3650, and 3600 March, with resistance at 3810, 3850, and 3890 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should averagebelow normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

December 50 Mar 150 Mar
125 Dec
54 Jan

January
60 Mar 150 Mar 95 Mar 78 Jan

February
66 Mar 150 Mar 90 Mar 66 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 820.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 822.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 827.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 830.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 820.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 827.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 830.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 835.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 837.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 827.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 825.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 710.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,720.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 241.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6848)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 139,096 lots, or 6.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 4,843 4,859 4,809 4,832 4,875 4,835 -40 20,014 26,124
Mar-24 4,805 4,829 4,800 4,819 4,840 4,815 -25 104,796 189,838
May-24 4,791 4,818 4,786 4,796 4,827 4,799 -28 12,437 39,475
Jul-24 4,804 4,804 4,768 4,774 4,809 4,783 -26 887 7,588
Sep-24 4,751 4,784 4,751 4,765 4,799 4,765 -34 901 6,648
Nov-24 4,793 4,793 4,745 4,760 4,793 4,768 -25 61 248
Corn
Turnover: 968,341 lots, or 2.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,412 2,413 2,365 2,367 2,420 2,390 -30 110,526 154,553
Mar-24 2,382 2,386 2,353 2,359 2,386 2,363 -23 166,911 410,655
May-24 2,407 2,407 2,371 2,379 2,409 2,383 -26 536,923 769,031
Jul-24 2,408 2,415 2,381 2,387 2,416 2,392 -24 129,185 218,444
Sep-24 2,412 2,414 2,382 2,389 2,415 2,394 -21 22,098 73,874
Nov-24 2,407 2,407 2,376 2,382 2,407 2,387 -20 2,698 5,471
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,057,318 lots, or 36.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 3,905 3,939 3,894 3,902 3,902 3,910 8 101,568 267,359
Mar-24 3,778 3,809 3,766 3,779 3,782 3,788 6 97,213 184,285
May-24 3,379 3,417 3,372 3,380 3,386 3,393 7 725,813 1,330,169
Jul-24 3,364 3,396 3,355 3,359 3,369 3,373 4 34,276 486,075
Aug-24 3,431 3,467 3,425 3,430 3,441 3,441 0 11,752 73,567
Sep-24 3,408 3,437 3,400 3,406 3,411 3,417 6 62,922 325,429
Nov-24 3,373 3,412 3,373 3,381 3,387 3,392 5 22,713 42,320
Dec-24 3,366 3,399 3,366 3,370 3,378 3,379 1 1,061 5,757
Palm Oil
Turnover: 616,028 lots, or 4.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 7,114 7,160 7,080 7,114 7,034 7,126 92 53,848 66,916
Feb-24 7,154 7,190 7,112 7,146 7,074 7,154 80 14,639 30,547
Mar-24 7,196 7,240 7,158 7,192 7,124 7,202 78 9,831 30,469
Apr-24 7,180 7,220 7,140 7,178 7,102 7,184 82 3,705 16,246
May-24 7,158 7,200 7,112 7,152 7,068 7,162 94 523,900 424,589
Jun-24 7,136 7,164 7,084 7,120 7,042 7,124 82 3,343 7,866
Jul-24 7,092 7,108 7,038 7,078 7,020 7,070 50 220 1,230
Aug-24 7,054 7,074 7,026 7,042 6,972 7,048 76 65 3,514
Sep-24 7,010 7,040 6,974 7,006 6,944 7,012 68 6,393 19,373
Oct-24 7,000 7,030 6,980 7,004 6,924 7,006 82 43 291
Nov-24 7,034 7,034 6,988 7,008 6,930 7,018 88 39 433
Dec-24 7,016 7,020 7,016 7,020 6,938 7,018 80 2 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 501,021 lots, or 38.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 7,986 8,030 7,964 7,972 7,962 7,994 32 62,319 127,571
Mar-24 7,906 7,922 7,858 7,878 7,838 7,890 52 14,825 50,822
May-24 7,630 7,658 7,592 7,612 7,564 7,624 60 395,652 535,792
Jul-24 7,566 7,568 7,508 7,528 7,482 7,538 56 7,690 139,013
Aug-24 7,532 7,576 7,516 7,540 7,500 7,544 44 2,831 31,984
Sep-24 7,524 7,542 7,480 7,504 7,468 7,508 40 10,865 46,934
Nov-24 7,490 7,514 7,454 7,468 7,450 7,480 30 3,194 15,798
Dec-24 7,504 7,528 7,464 7,484 7,458 7,494 36 3,645 5,445
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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