Grains Report 12/14/2023

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 14
For the week ended Dec 7, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 1490.5 18.0 14534.4 14110.3 6142.5 151.3
hrw 36.8 0.0 2506.3 3860.1 985.4 21.3
srw 1182.3 0.0 4145.9 2291.4 2359.2 87.6
hrs 163.8 18.0 4640.9 4298.8 1605.6 39.4
white 107.0 0.0 2913.5 3439.3 1068.1 0.0
durum 0.5 0.0 327.9 220.8 124.3 3.0
corn 1418.6 0.0 27166.0 20002.9 17607.7 1060.7
soybeans 1084.0 0.0 33370.7 41668.6 14001.3 9.0
soymeal 325.8 0.5 6650.3 5544.9 4138.0 5.7
soyoil 0.3 0.0 28.3 30.4 22.2 0.6
upland cotton 57.8 13.6 7975.9 8752.3 5370.9 639.7
pima cotton 7.7 1.2 177.9 113.6 85.2 2.7
sorghum 78.1 60.0 3665.5 360.5 2290.3 240.0
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.6 16.3 0.0
rice 121.1 0.0 1700.5 850.0 850.0 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
CORN December Dec 15, 2023 314 Dec 13, 2023
WHEAT December Dec 15, 2023 213 Dec 13, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday and trends are turning down again. News that Argentina will restructure its economy with a shock devaluation of the peso and structural changes inside the country created ideas that farmers would sell, but it is unlikely they will sell right away and might be better off to wait and see a more calm situation. China has been a big buyer of US Wheat in the last couple of weeks and helped produce a big rally in the market. China has stopped buying for now and the market gave back about half the rally before finding its footing yesterday. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that the crop is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are starting to increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 618 and 591 March. Support is at 591, 568, and 562 March, with resistance at 629, 653, and 670 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 627 and 596 March. Support is at 620, 612, and 596 March, with resistance at 658, 670, and 677 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 709, 699, and 692 March, and resistance is at 749, 763, and 768 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday in range trading. Farmers appear quiet in the market and basis levels are reported to be steady. Short term trends are mixed in this market. Demand reports have been solid to strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1667, and 1640 January and resistance is at 1717, 1730, and 1746 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on news of drastic changes in the Argentine economy. The government plans to devalue the peso and cut its value in half and to cut government spending. It also plans to raise taxes on Wheat and Corn and maybe cut taxes on Soybeans. Th market anticipates increased selling from producers ther, but many may wit until the situation calms and that could take a while. Oats were higher. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some showers have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is still much too wet.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 477, 471, and 468 March, and resistance is at 489, 493, and 496 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 336, 330, and 324 March, and resistance is at 370, 382, and 398 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower on some profit taking and despite less than expected rains in central and northern Brazil over the weekend and forecasts for reduced rains this week. Too much rain was reported for southern Brazil again. There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week. The market also heard that Argentina has devalued the Peso in a drastic way and plans to cut government spending in a major change for the economy there. Soybeans export taxes could be cut but Corn and Wheat taxes raised. The market anticipates an uptick in selling but might have to wait until the economy becomes more stable.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 400,000 tons of US Soybeans
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1292, 1270, and 1250 January, and resistance is at 1321, 1344, and 1352 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 394.00, 384.00, and 379.00. Support is at 398.00, 388.00, and 387.00 January, and resistance is at 414.00, 418.00, and 422.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4980, 4900, and 4820 January, with resistance at 5200, 5360, and 5420 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil held was higher today in response to the outside market strength. .Palm Oil was lower along with weakness in Soybean Oil and on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported improved demand for the month so far. Production was high in the MPOB reports but is expected to drop seasonally in future reports. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola closed lower with Chicago Soybeans and the Argentine news. Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 646.00, 642.00, and 636.00 January, with resistance at 678.00, 682.00, and 693.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3680 February. Support is at 3640, 3580, and 3490 February, with resistance at 3780, 3860, and 3920 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

December 50 Mar 150 Mar
125 Dec
54 Jan

January
60 Mar 150 Mar 95 Mar 78 Jan

February
66 Mar 150 Mar 90 Mar 66 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 815.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 820.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 827.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 822.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 827.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 835.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 820.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 720.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,650.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Taded
Dec 239.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6689)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 184,147 lots, or 8.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 4,872 4,878 4,840 4,858 4,907 4,857 -50 81,656 71,420
Mar-24 4,841 4,855 4,819 4,827 4,879 4,832 -47 85,790 134,547
May-24 4,866 4,866 4,828 4,829 4,881 4,839 -42 14,852 32,677
Jul-24 4,847 4,847 4,812 4,813 4,868 4,824 -44 928 7,181
Sep-24 4,832 4,832 4,800 4,803 4,847 4,807 -40 878 6,146
Nov-24 4,808 4,808 4,787 4,788 4,836 4,796 -40 43 196
Corn
Turnover: 580,904 lots, or 14.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,451 2,464 2,441 2,452 2,459 2,451 -8 195,412 302,458
Mar-24 2,427 2,434 2,420 2,424 2,432 2,426 -6 132,023 423,055
May-24 2,455 2,462 2,446 2,450 2,462 2,452 -10 192,125 603,319
Jul-24 2,460 2,465 2,452 2,456 2,467 2,457 -10 52,400 204,193
Sep-24 2,458 2,462 2,450 2,453 2,465 2,454 -11 8,376 54,420
Nov-24 2,452 2,460 2,443 2,447 2,461 2,449 -12 568 2,449
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,390,356 lots, or 49.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 – – – 3,873 3,945 3,873 -72 0 0
Jan-24 3,940 3,942 3,892 3,909 3,969 3,915 -54 271,861 387,672
Mar-24 3,837 3,837 3,784 3,798 3,851 3,811 -40 100,007 174,878
May-24 3,455 3,459 3,404 3,409 3,458 3,430 -28 876,100 1,333,459
Jul-24 3,432 3,434 3,386 3,391 3,436 3,408 -28 50,150 488,955
Aug-24 3,493 3,504 3,459 3,464 3,505 3,481 -24 15,039 74,946
Sep-24 3,471 3,474 3,430 3,434 3,474 3,450 -24 62,259 299,053
Nov-24 3,438 3,442 3,400 3,402 3,441 3,420 -21 14,940 37,807
Palm Oil
Turnover: 560,358 lots, or 39.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 7,050 7,050 7,050 7,050 7,050 7,048 -2 275 0
Jan-24 7,030 7,076 7,002 7,020 7,072 7,040 -32 86,146 120,330
Feb-24 7,044 7,102 7,044 7,060 7,098 7,070 -28 13,190 31,286
Mar-24 7,106 7,160 7,096 7,110 7,146 7,126 -20 7,557 29,234
Apr-24 7,096 7,138 7,078 7,090 7,142 7,112 -30 3,364 15,831
May-24 7,080 7,132 7,056 7,070 7,124 7,094 -30 441,602 402,942
Jun-24 7,058 7,110 7,042 7,056 7,106 7,074 -32 1,619 7,711
Jul-24 7,030 7,070 7,016 7,022 7,072 7,038 -34 22 1,199
Aug-24 7,000 7,042 6,990 6,992 7,038 7,008 -30 32 3,518
Sep-24 6,952 7,018 6,952 6,968 7,014 6,984 -30 6,409 18,315
Oct-24 6,968 7,002 6,960 6,974 7,018 6,974 -44 67 282
Nov-24 7,014 7,014 6,974 6,980 7,008 6,984 -24 75 405
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 499,795 lots, or 38.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 – – – 8,204 8,100 8,204 104 0 0
Jan-24 7,966 8,024 7,950 7,952 8,038 7,980 -58 112,983 163,183
Mar-24 7,868 7,902 7,840 7,846 7,930 7,866 -64 13,430 52,491
May-24 7,616 7,650 7,570 7,580 7,670 7,610 -60 348,356 503,156
Jul-24 7,520 7,570 7,498 7,500 7,588 7,530 -58 6,441 142,296
Aug-24 7,548 7,582 7,510 7,514 7,590 7,538 -52 2,094 33,908
Sep-24 7,512 7,546 7,470 7,476 7,556 7,506 -50 12,997 42,419
Nov-24 7,500 7,530 7,460 7,462 7,534 7,488 -46 3,494 17,043
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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