William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
Last week, the mkt was ostensibly “under wraps” – anticipating the Dec WASDE on Friday 12-8-23 at 11am! But that report turned out to be a ho-hum, non-event with #’s little changed from November! The real news -surprise, surprise – was of course the weather in Brazil – which moderated all week as forecasters ended up taking rain “out of the forecast”! This resulted in a short-covering rally from just under $13.00 of over 30 cents! Aiding this upsurge was a steady flow of exports all week in terms of flash sales, Mon Inspections & Thursday sales! The mkt was apparently not convinced that the rains had markedly improved the extreme dryness in N Brazil! The stocks started the year tight were not augmented by a 4.1 BB crop – roughly unchanged from last year! And exports should continue to flourish!
As is evident from the above chart, Mar Corn has been confined to a tight trading range for several months – even with fundamentals suggesting an uptrend! US Corn is the cheapest anywhere, the US dollar is on a 4 month low, the US farmer is not selling, the crude is sharply higher, the short open interest is sizeable & prices are $1.50 under the summer highs! We feel the 15.2 BB crop is dialed into prices & that adverse South American weather will lower their bean & corn crops – tightening global stocks! It’s only a matter of time before active exports rally corn out of its current range!
8 consecutive higher closes in Mar Wht spawning a 90 cent rally – signified a trend change in the woebegone wheat mkt to the upside! Fueling the fire were 4 flash sales of wht to China 2 weeks ago! But the mkt got ahead of itself – correcting 40% of that rally last week! Now the mkt is awaiting global crop updates from Argentina & Australia & hopefully more export interest from China!
In 3 short months, Feb Cat relinquished its entire $33 dollar rally (196 -163) which had taken 12 months to accumulate! Sticker shock & much cheaper alternatives ultimately created demand destruction for the once high-flying market! But we feel the down was overdone – as it often is in commodity mkts, and that the lows last week just under 163 will be seasonal lows! Supporting that contention is the fact predicted production for the first 3 quarters of 2024 is slated to be 5-10% under this year! Plus holiday beef demand should support the mkt thru year-end!
Feb Hog’s direction of late has been inextricably linked to China’s Hog Mkt – which since their seminal announcement several weeks ago of hog excess, has been ravaged by mass hog herd liquidation & declining cash prices! It’s been a “double jeopardy” for the US hog producer – as not only is China not buying our pork but they are liquidating part of their supply! However, the “bleeding stopped” yesterday & today, when the mkt challenged the contract lows but was unable breach them – leading to a $4.00 rally today! This seems to confirm the 65.80 low on 11-28-23 is indeed the seasonal low! The mkt has also been aided by positive “outsides” with a record DJI, a sharply lower US $ & a $2.00 higher crude!
Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337