Softs Report 11/28/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower and trends turned down in this market. The export sales report was positive for prices once again last week. The US Dollar has been weaker and economic data has been positive. The weekly export sales report was strong. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 74.08 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 87,769 bales, from 87,769 bales yesterday. ICE said that 25 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 787 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 79.00, 77.70, and 76.80 March, with resistance of 80.20, 81.00 and 82.00 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower, and the trends are mixed. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 391.00, 382.00, and 370.00 January, with resistance at 422.00, 430.00, and 436.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed mixed as Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production and London closed lower on reports of increasing Coffee availability from Vietnam. The forecasts now call for a return to the dominant pattern of a wet south and a dry north this week. Some northern areas will get a few showers and these areas might include some Coffee production regions. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia have been a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.290 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 160.85 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that there were 0 contracts tendered for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the moth are 94 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 165.00, 163.00, and 161.00 March, and resistance is at 171.00, 174.00 and 176.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2610 and 2700 January. Support is at 2510, 2470, and 2440 January, with resistance at 2570, 2600, and 2620 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 220,392
: Positions :
: 40,478 27,979 63,237 42,831 112,996 63,501 7,204 210,047 211,415: 10,345 8,977
: Changes from: November 14, 2023 (Change in open interest: 2,975) :
: 3,774 2,481 5,694 -6,060 -4,561 589 1,078 3,996 4,691: -1,021 -1,716
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.4 12.7 28.7 19.4 51.3 28.8 3.3 95.3 95.9: 4.7 4.1
: Total Traders: 367 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 103 79 114 101 109 47 23 317 271:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher in choppy trading on changes in the Brazil weather forecasts. Brazil weather forecasts now call for a return to wet in the south and hot and dry in central and northern areas this week after more moderate conditions were seen last week, although Sao Paulo should get moderate showers. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2640 and 2460 March. Support is at 2670, 2650, and 2630 March and resistance is at 2740, 2760, and 2790 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 730.00, 718.00, and 704.00 March. Support is at 735.00, 729.00, and 719.00 January, with resistance at 761.00, 766.00, and 772.00 January.

DJ Brazil Sugar Crush Up 32% in 1H November to 34.8M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the first half of November compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 34.8 million metric tons of cane in the period, an increase of 32% from the same period a year earlier, Unica said Monday. They produced 2.2 million tons of sugar, up 31%, and made 1.6 billion liters of ethanol, an increase of 29%.
The production mix for the first half of November was 50% sugar to 50% ethanol, compared with 49% sugar and 51% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
In the period from April 1 through Nov. 15, mills in the region crushed 595.4 million tons of cane, up 15% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 23% to 39.4 million tons, and ethanol output climbed 11% to 28.6 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through Nov. 15 was 49% sugar and 51% ethanol, compared with 46% sugar and 54% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,133,077
: Positions :
: 199,804 58,166 282,066 328,533 667,315 227,427 76,334 1,037,829 1,083,880: 95,248 49,197
: Changes from: November 14, 2023 (Change in open interest: 18,211) :
: -182 -3,121 5,246 13,815 9,301 735 2,352 19,614 13,778: -1,403 4,433
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.6 5.1 24.9 29.0 58.9 20.1 6.7 91.6 95.7: 8.4 4.3
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 38 78 66 68 38 19 222 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and it looks like US Dollar weakness was responsible for a large part of the move between markets. Price trends on the weekly charts for both markets are pointed higher. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 4.411 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 4040, 4020, and 3980 March, with resistance at 4150, 4180, and 4210 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3380, 3360, and 3290 March, with resistance at 3620, 3570, and 3600 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 402,379
: Positions :
: 95,583 43,688 151,487 90,583 176,285 49,193 17,780 386,846 389,240: 15,533 13,139
: Changes from: November 14, 2023 (Change in open interest: -13,938) :
: 95 314 -730 -13,040 -14,383 -1,726 -334 -15,402 -15,133: 1,463 1,195
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.8 10.9 37.6 22.5 43.8 12.2 4.4 96.1 96.7: 3.9 3.3
: Total Traders: 268 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 71 81 43 46 34 18 212 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322