Grains Report 11/20/2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower last week as the market remains pessimistic about demand potential for US Wheat. The weekly export sales report was bad once again this week and reports indicate that Ukraine is determined to use Black Sea ports to load export Wheat. Ukraine is still exporting through the Black Sea. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that it is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia, with production losses now expected. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to average. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 504 December. Support is at 546, 537, and 530 December, with resistance at 573, 585, and 590 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed ro down with objectives of 570 and 414 December. Support is at 612, 606, and 600 December, with resistance at 632, 649, and 663 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 708 and 691 December . Support is at 703, 696, and 693 December, and resistance is at 731, 739, and 746 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 514,218
: Positions :
: 63,999 151,486 184,196 89,147 79,048 136,779 61,947 474,120 476,678: 40,097 37,540
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 (Change in open interest: -11,754) :
: -6,457 -2,722 -7,685 -1,550 1,537 3,578 -2,058 -12,114 -10,928: 360 -826
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.4 29.5 35.8 17.3 15.4 26.6 12.0 92.2 92.7: 7.8 7.3
: Total Traders: 387 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 109 132 102 96 44 31 319 306:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 245,968
: Positions :
: 29,755 71,302 69,334 50,756 58,218 74,846 26,060 224,692 224,915: 21,276 21,053
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 (Change in open interest: 497) :
: -681 2,263 -1,082 543 2,699 1,618 -1,179 398 2,701: 99 -2,204
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.1 29.0 28.2 20.6 23.7 30.4 10.6 91.4 91.4: 8.6 8.6
: Total Traders: 219 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 58 61 54 67 36 18 162 178:
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 78,154 :
: Positions :
: 48,887 25,824 2,269 532 187 3,572 31,298 3,745 2,245 1,774 4,660 :
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 :
: -1,270 2,543 -20 8 -404 -118 -3,390 -777 -298 383 -1,544 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 62.6 33.0 2.9 0.7 0.2 4.6 40.0 4.8 2.9 2.3 6.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 120 :
: 55 48 . . . 8 25 10 9 8 12 :
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RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed sharply higher and at new highs for the move last week and pries are still in an uptrend. Futures had been consolidating the gains made the previously in early week trading, then exploded higher once again. Demand reports have been strong for the last couple of week and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia ad some nontraditional buyers as well The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand from Latin America and Asia. The daily and weekly chart trends are still up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1684, 1664, and 1658 January and resistance is at 1748, 1760, and 1772 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,796 :
: Positions :
: 4,572 9,190 96 0 0 2,093 294 1 1,381 248 392 :
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 :
: -1,615 465 96 0 0 740 -378 1 -27 -220 -60 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 42.3 85.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 19.4 2.7 0.0 12.8 2.3 3.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58 :
: 18 20 . 0 0 12 . . 11 . 6 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher last week as the weekly export sales report showed very strong demand and despite some forecasts for showers and rains in central and northern Brazil. Oats closed a little lower in consolidation trading. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is much too wet. These patterns could change this week as forecasts call for significant precipitation in central and northern Brazl and drier conditions to the south. The patterns could shift again the following week to hot and dry in the north and too much rain in the south, but the second week forecast is a long way off and very subject to change.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 104,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 461, 458, and 452 December, and resistance is at 480, 506, and 507 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 333, 325, and 322 December, and resistance is at 363, 371, and 374 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,837,197
: Positions :
: 125,917 322,629 564,330 591,691 602,447 353,355 123,216 1,635,294 1,612,623: 201,904 224,575
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 (Change in open interest: 6,809) :
: -44 1,055 -5,012 1,965 7,418 2,083 138 -1,008 3,599: 7,817 3,210
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.9 17.6 30.7 32.2 32.8 19.2 6.7 89.0 87.8: 11.0 12.2
: Total Traders: 769 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 102 169 199 358 351 54 37 649 643:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,045 :
: Positions :
: 2,371 2,695 124 119 8 191 313 0 294 266 146 :
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 :
: . . . . . . . . . . . :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 47.0 53.4 2.5 2.4 0.2 3.8 6.2 0.0 5.8 5.3 2.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 21 :
: 9 7 . . . . . 0 . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher last week, but Soybean Meal was lower as drought continued in central and northern Brazil and too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. There are some forecasts for scattered showers this week in central and northern Brazil and drier conditions in the south. It could be a pattern change but current forecasts call for rains to move south again and dry conditions to return to the north the following week. That is a long way off and no one dan br sure as to what will happen. Soybean Oil was higher as disappearance was very high in the NOPA reports issued in the middle of last week. Soybean Oil appears to be completing a bottom on the daily charts. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans was very strong and strong sales have been reported to China. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1334 and 1294 January. Support is at 1336, 1331, and 1319 January, and resistance is at 1360, 1369, and 1394 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 454.00, 451.00, and 439.00 December, and resistance is at 464.00, 475.00, and 479.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5400, 5620 and 5690 December. Support is at 4980, 4900, and 4630 December, with resistance at 5360, 5430, and 5510 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 878,980
: Positions :
: 111,330 52,253 230,118 287,486 478,221 186,399 40,360 815,333 800,952: 63,647 78,027
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 (Change in open interest: 33,429) :
: 14,659 -4,637 11,317 1,017 20,380 3,751 2,186 30,744 29,246: 2,685 4,183
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.7 5.9 26.2 32.7 54.4 21.2 4.6 92.8 91.1: 7.2 8.9
: Total Traders: 582 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 117 124 162 209 256 53 28 474 484:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 577,788
: Positions :
: 56,758 83,375 163,680 173,997 268,848 147,049 33,676 541,485 549,579: 36,303 28,210
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 (Change in open interest: 14,176) :
: 4,342 2,205 2,077 1,967 10,560 3,543 -1,369 11,928 13,474: 2,248 703
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 14.4 28.3 30.1 46.5 25.5 5.8 93.7 95.1: 6.3 4.9
: Total Traders: 318 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 68 107 94 85 44 24 269 244:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 646,145
: Positions :
: 109,844 21,730 196,745 137,610 374,006 141,978 15,822 586,176 608,303: 59,969 37,842
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 (Change in open interest: 36,505) :
: 16,622 -1,123 20,701 -1,015 12,934 -990 2,471 35,317 34,983: 1,188 1,522
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.0 3.4 30.4 21.3 57.9 22.0 2.4 90.7 94.1: 9.3 5.9
: Total Traders: 323 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 45 92 114 121 41 19 287 246:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and on ideas of stronger demand for Palm. Futures also closed higher today despite weker export data. Production was high in the MPOB reports released over a week ago but this was expected. The strong demand was not expected and came from China and other buyers. Private surveyors showed that the strong demand continues for the month to date. Trends are mixed on the daily charts but are quietly turning up on the weekly charts. Canola closed higher last week on the weather in Brazil. It gave back the best gains of the week on forecasts for drier weather ion southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas. The crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mostly up on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 743.00 and 775.00 January. Support is at 681.00, 672.00, and 666.00 January, with resistance at 707.00, 713.00, and 725.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4070 and 4290 February. Support is at 3900, 3880, and 3820 February, with resistance at 4040, 4070, and 4130 February.

DJ Malaysia Nov. 1-20 Palm-Oil Exports Fell 1.9%, AmSpec Says
By Jiahui Huang
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the Nov. 1-20 period are estimated to have fallen 1.9% on month to 869,143 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Nov. 1-20 Oct. 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 291,108 320,575
RBD Palm Oil 54,010 58,005
RBD Palm Stearin 66,043 73,293
Crude Palm Oil 239,462 237,530
Total* 869,143 885,888
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 41,556 :
: Positions :
: 32,475 18,486 790 10,310 760 0 880 80 931 4,520 6,520 :
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 :
: 690 610 0 320 0 0 -80 0 240 80 269 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 78.1 44.5 1.9 24.8 1.8 0.0 2.1 0.2 2.2 10.9 15.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 34 :
: 11 11 . 4 . 0 . . . 10 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 284,917 :
: Positions :
: 213,666 127,863 15,528 2,707 4,505 4,593 103,518 27,521 5,348 5,397 9,557 :
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 :
: 127 6,383 -979 167 55 499 -4,264 1,450 -589 -3,099 272 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 75.0 44.9 5.4 1.0 1.6 1.6 36.3 9.7 1.9 1.9 3.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 298 :
: 57 54 5 6 5 16 83 21 63 42 41 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 74 Dec 165 Dec
116 Dec
84 Nov

Secember
74 Dec 165 Dec
122 Dec 84 Jan

January
63 Mar 145 Mar 90 Mae 84 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Dec 857.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 870.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 880.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Dec 865.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 877.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 887.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 835.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 785.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,820.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 248.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6682)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 113,708 lots, or 5.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 5,060 5,085 5,044 5,080 5,048 5,065 17 87,675 143,205
Mar-24 4,960 5,023 4,960 5,020 4,982 5,001 19 21,355 25,806
May-24 5,020 5,048 5,010 5,046 5,015 5,029 14 4,010 11,056
Jul-24 4,991 5,006 4,973 5,006 4,980 4,994 14 407 4,125
Sep-24 4,959 4,970 4,938 4,965 4,948 4,959 11 254 2,296
Nov-24 4,925 4,928 4,921 4,928 4,925 4,925 0 7 43
Corn
Turnover: 718,488 lots, or 18.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,546 2,578 2,543 2,572 2,546 2,565 19 473,227 717,054
Mar-24 2,545 2,566 2,542 2,562 2,546 2,557 11 123,523 307,998
May-24 2,564 2,595 2,564 2,588 2,573 2,586 13 60,358 261,992
Jul-24 2,568 2,593 2,568 2,586 2,573 2,582 9 55,122 135,960
Sep-24 2,567 2,594 2,567 2,583 2,573 2,581 8 6,042 19,893
Nov-24 2,539 2,543 2,537 2,542 2,543 2,540 -3 216 537
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,042,192 lots, or 78.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 4,053 4,053 3,966 4,000 4,098 3,998 -100 5,101 13,590
Jan-24 4,036 4,036 3,952 3,987 4,058 3,987 -71 1,388,508 1,170,488
Mar-24 3,907 3,907 3,830 3,862 3,907 3,861 -46 71,373 101,448
May-24 3,531 3,531 3,476 3,493 3,526 3,498 -28 412,888 984,818
Jul-24 3,529 3,529 3,468 3,485 3,511 3,489 -22 63,255 486,886
Aug-24 3,570 3,571 3,525 3,544 3,565 3,543 -22 31,461 75,549
Sep-24 3,533 3,533 3,487 3,505 3,532 3,504 -28 52,190 211,076
Nov-24 3,497 3,504 3,461 3,480 3,504 3,477 -27 17,416 19,072
Palm Oil
Turnover: 749,485 lots, or 56.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 7,458 7,458 7,338 7,370 7,496 7,392 -104 488 3,650
Jan-24 7,508 7,514 7,406 7,452 7,508 7,466 -42 597,048 404,438
Feb-24 7,578 7,588 7,488 7,528 7,578 7,544 -34 13,521 34,316
Mar-24 7,628 7,656 7,550 7,594 7,630 7,612 -18 8,795 25,971
Apr-24 7,652 7,682 7,582 7,628 7,658 7,638 -20 6,847 15,040
May-24 7,666 7,678 7,580 7,626 7,666 7,636 -30 116,084 183,750
Jun-24 7,616 7,644 7,550 7,592 7,616 7,606 -10 4,395 6,489
Jul-24 7,544 7,564 7,494 7,520 7,558 7,532 -26 121 1,425
Aug-24 7,464 7,482 7,420 7,446 7,472 7,450 -22 28 3,626
Sep-24 7,388 7,448 7,326 7,378 7,394 7,384 -10 2,132 6,688
Oct-24 7,298 7,338 7,294 7,318 7,346 7,312 -34 11 84
Nov-24 7,268 7,274 7,246 7,266 7,296 7,264 -32 15 74
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 834,044 lots, or 68.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 8,398 8,398 8,302 8,348 8,442 8,352 -90 368 1,221
Jan-24 8,326 8,364 8,262 8,324 8,346 8,314 -32 658,140 543,008
Mar-24 8,230 8,252 8,152 8,210 8,244 8,206 -38 17,175 41,195
May-24 7,974 8,014 7,912 7,980 7,998 7,974 -24 139,402 258,775
Jul-24 7,832 7,852 7,764 7,824 7,858 7,814 -44 6,740 137,459
Aug-24 7,804 7,824 7,740 7,800 7,828 7,782 -46 2,603 32,965
Sep-24 7,740 7,756 7,672 7,728 7,766 7,718 -48 5,070 12,062
Nov-24 7,688 7,706 7,626 7,680 7,722 7,674 -48 4,546 6,483
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322