Softs Report 11/20/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher last week as ideas of good demand continue. The US Dollar has been weaker and economic data has been positive. The weekly export sales report was strong. The monthly USDA reports were mostly ignored as market factors. USDA increased yields and production to 13.090 million bales. Ending stocks levels increased to 320 million bales from 280 million last month. World ending stocks levels were also increased. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 76.23 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 86,868 bales, from 86,868 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8140 and 8480 December. Support is at 77.90, 76.90, and 74.80 December, with resistance of 79.70, 80.80 and 81.50 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 235,893
: Positions :
: 36,386 47,936 47,830 67,624 111,924 70,284 14,330 222,124 222,020: 13,769 13,872
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 (Change in open interest: -48,106) :
: 4,547 10,830 -32,887 -17,114 -23,143 -2,199 -2,757 -47,653 -47,956: -453 -150
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.4 20.3 20.3 28.7 47.4 29.8 6.1 94.2 94.1: 5.8 5.9
: Total Traders: 284 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 77 100 55 59 45 22 231 219:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher last week, and the trends on the daily and weekly charts are up. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 405.00, 391.00, and 382.00 January, with resistance at 424.00, 430.00, and 436.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,775 :
: Positions :
: 2,039 6,253 991 0 6 3,331 683 352 734 660 1,987 :
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 :
: -324 -47 -28 0 6 162 71 220 87 90 188 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.3 53.1 8.4 0.0 0.1 28.3 5.8 3.0 6.2 5.6 16.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 9 11 4 0 . 19 4 . 8 15 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed lower last week on forecasts for Brazil weather that has been hot and dry in central and northern areas and too wet in the south. The forecasts now call for drier conditions in the south and wet conditions in the north for this week before returning to the dominant pattern the following week. Traders will wonder if this is a pattern change or just a blip in the longer term weather patterns but for now the forecasts indicate that the change should be for next week only with drier conditions returning to the north and wetter conditions to the south during the following week. Cecafe said that Brazil Coffee exports were 4.4 million bags in October, up 22% from the previous year. There was some buying on the low certified stocks seen in New York. The stocks are at 24 year lows according to Reuters. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.289 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 160.39 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 169.00 and 162.00 December. Support is at 169.00, 166.00, and 163.00 December, and resistance is at 176.00, 179.00 and 182.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2480, 2440, and 2400 January, with resistance at 2570, 2600, and 2620 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 217,417
: Positions :
: 36,705 25,498 57,543 48,891 117,558 62,912 6,126 206,051 206,724: 11,366 10,693
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 (Change in open interest: -26,368) :
: 6,188 809 -18,989 -11,435 -3,630 -2,308 -3,505 -26,544 -25,316: 176 -1,053
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.9 11.7 26.5 22.5 54.1 28.9 2.8 94.8 95.1: 5.2 4.9
: Total Traders: 358 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 86 110 97 105 46 21 302 268:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/14/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
141,737 59,053 73,975 3,366 7,407 1,377
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 41.7% 52.2% 2.4% 5.2% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
161 47 39 5 12 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
39,751 14,927 10,545 2,109 10,960 18,477
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
28.0% 10.5% 7.4% 1.5% 7.7% 13.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
48 16 20 10 11 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,059 4,069
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 2.9%

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed a little lower last week. Brazil weather forecasts now call for drier conditions in the south and wet conditions in the north for this week before a return to wet in the south and hot and dry in central and northern areas next week. Traders will wonder if this is a pattern change or just a blip in the longer term weather patterns but for now the forecasts indicate that the change should be for next week only. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2630 and 2550 March. Support is at 2700, 2670, and 2650 March and resistance is at 2740, 2760, and 2790 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 718.00 and 704.00 March. Support is at 729.00, 719.00, and 714.00 January, with resistance at 743.00, 750.00, and 760.00 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,114,866
: Positions :
: 199,986 61,287 276,819 314,718 658,014 226,692 73,982 1,018,215 1,070,102: 96,651 44,764
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 (Change in open interest: -22,142) :
: -7,482 -10,521 -6,405 11,544 -6,501 -16,567 3,363 -18,909 -20,064: -3,233 -2,078
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.9 5.5 24.8 28.2 59.0 20.3 6.6 91.3 96.0: 8.7 4.0
: Total Traders: 241 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 37 74 68 69 38 19 217 174:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/14/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
85,550 29,708 61,075 7,227 7,522 1,952
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 34.7% 71.4% 8.4% 8.8% 2.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
123 32 40 7 7 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
31,487 3,206 3,896 1,612 2,481 3,162
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
36.8% 3.7% 4.6% 1.9% 2.9% 3.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 7 15 5 6 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,506 2,256
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.6% 2.6%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week after making new highs for the move. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production. Port arrivals in top grower Ivory Coast in the marketing year to date totaled 350,000 metric tons down 25% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.457 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 4220 December. Support is at 3970, 3870, and 3820 December, with resistance at 4110, 4140, and 4170 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3430, 3370, and 3290 December, with resistance at 3630, 3660, and 3690 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 416,317
: Positions :
: 95,488 43,374 152,218 103,623 190,667 50,919 18,114 402,247 404,372: 14,069 11,945
: Changes from: November 7, 2023 (Change in open interest: -4,657) :
: 5,083 -422 -2,932 -2,024 -726 -2,972 489 -2,845 -3,590: -1,812 -1,067
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.9 10.4 36.6 24.9 45.8 12.2 4.4 96.6 97.1: 3.4 2.9
: Total Traders: 270 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 69 84 41 45 34 16 213 187:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/14/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
594,944 306,584 341,837 30,511 73,295 52,120
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 51.5% 57.5% 5.1% 12.3% 8.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
168 50 40 15 10 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
71,466 3,910 34,375 13,707 6,375 81,585
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.0% 0.7% 5.8% 2.3% 1.1% 13.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
54 4 24 18 10 25
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,596 1,447
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.8% 0.2%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322