Find Positioning + Global Economy + War & Weather. The Corn & Ethanol Report 11/16/2023

We kickoff the day with Fed Cook Speech at 5:00 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 6:10 A.M., Exports Sales, Export Prices MoM & YoY, Import Prices MoM & YoY, Fed Mester Speech, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Ded Manufacturing Index, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philly Fed Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, and Philly Fed Prices Paid at 7:30 A.M., Industrial Production MoM & YoY, Capacity Utilization, and Manufacturing Production MoM & YoY at 8:15 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 8:15 A.M., NAHB Housing Market Index at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage and Fed Waller Speech at 9:30 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 9:35 A.M., Kansas Fed Composite Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate, Fed Cook Speech, and Fed Mester Speech at 11:00 A.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M.

ARC reports, Soybean producers : Sell 20% of your 2023 soybean crop at 14.19 basis March to push sales to 60%. Following a lower-than-expected CPI Inflation print for October on Tuesday, The Producer Price Index also reflected price inflation that was just below expectations. Compared to a year ago, producer prices were 1.#%, which was below estimates of 1.9% and the lowest in 3 months. Last week, China reported that its PPI in October was down 2.6%, marking the 13^th consecutive month of declining producer prices, as measured by the CRB Index. The CRB Index bottomed in May at -20% and recovered into October to mark 2 consecutive months of positive raw material and price inflation. But at present, the CRB was down 1% from 2022 as energy prices have weakened. Long-term support for crude oil is $70 a barrel and spot crude is last at 7621. Unfortunately, for South America, The only change in the weather is the forecast for the prospects of showers in the Northern 2/3rds. of Brazil that is expected to start late Sunday and persists through Thursday. If the rain dries up in the atmosphere and there is little to no coverage we will most likely see volume escalate with short covering a very real. Also in South America, traders will be watching the results of Sunday’s Argentine election amid its dire inflation rate and talk of dollarization that would add further pressure to the peso as we start the shortened Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US. Getting back to weather and funds with Argentina, Australia, and Brazil to turn the corner and all bet’s off on the Black Sea Corridor Deal the weather may force the funds hands that are massively long soybeans, long soybean meal, Heavily short corn and wheat and mildly short soybean oil. These stories and fresh new breaking headlines could change the Psychology of the grain complex. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 469 which is 1 ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 474 to 468.