Grains Report 11/16/2023

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 16
For the week ended Nov 9, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 176.3 0.0 11893.0 12784.3 4628.6 105.4
hrw 22.7 0.0 2214.3 3531.2 866.3 14.2
srw 21.2 0.0 2708.0 2200.3 1022.9 82.0
hrs 97.4 0.0 4140.8 3769.0 1595.7 9.2
white 12.3 0.0 2517.4 3144.5 1016.8 0.0
durum 22.7 0.0 312.6 139.4 127.0 0.0
corn 1807.5 0.0 21098.3 15899.4 14600.7 1037.9
soybeans 3918.4 0.0 28159.4 35843.8 14176.2 0.0
soymeal 144.8 0.0 5946.3 4407.3 4686.4 4.7
soyoil 3.4 -0.4 28.7 32.6 25.3 0.2
upland cotton 328.3 30.4 7261.8 8800.9 5111.4 575.4
pima cotton 13.9 0.0 163.1 104.8 105.4 1.5
sorghum 76.4 0.0 3142.3 353.9 2630.8 180.0
barley 0.0 0.0 16.1 14.0 15.9 0.0
rice 207.9 0.0 1297.0 654.3 691.1 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower as the market remains pessimistic about demand potential for US Wheat. Ukraine is still exporting through the Black Sea. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that it is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia, with production losses now expected. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to average. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 555, 552, and 546 December, with resistance at 585, 590, and 599 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 630, 624, and 612 December, with resistance at 668, 688, and 697 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 721, 703, and 696 December, and resistance is at 740, 746, and 752 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday and resumed the uptrend. Futures had been consolidating the gains made last week for the last couple of days. The USDA reports showed that production was cut back and demand was left unchanged for an ending stocks estimate of 40.9 million cwt, from 41.8 million last month. Ending stocks levels for long grain are now 22.2 million cwt and are 15.4 million cwt for medium/short grain. The daily and weekly chart trends are still up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1684, 1664, and 1658 January and resistance is at 1702, 1712, and 1724 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on some forecasts for scattered showers in central and northern Brazil. Oats closed lower. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is much too wet. The weather patterns seem stuck in South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 461, 458, and 452 December, and resistance is at 480, 506, and 507 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 333, 325, and 322 December, and resistance is at 363, 371, and 374 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed ixed yesterday as drought continued in central and northern Brazil and too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. There are some forecasts for scattered showers next week in central and northern Brazil. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil were higher. The weekly export sales report was strong and strong sales have been reported to China and unknown destinations on the daily reporting system. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. These weather trends are expected to continue.
Overnight News: Unknown destiunations bought 220,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1380, 1361, and 1350 January, and resistance is at 1398, 1406, and 1420 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 464.00, 451.00, and 493.00 December, and resistance is at 479.00, 482.00, and 488.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 5400, 5620 and 5690 December. Support is at 5180, 4980, and 4900 December, with resistance at 5350, 5430, and 5510 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Production was high but this was expected. The strong demand was not expected. Private surveyors showed that the strong demand continues for the month to date. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Canola closed higher on the weather in Brazil. The crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are bottoming on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 743.00 and 775.00 January. Support is at 706.00, 698.00, and 681.00 January, with resistance at 725.00, 731.00, and 737.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4070 and 4290 February. Support is at 3950, 3900, and 3880 February, with resistance at 4070, 4130, and 4220 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 74 Dec 165 Dec
116 Dec
84 Nov

Secember
74 Dec 165 Dec
122 Dec 84 Jan

January
63 Mar 145 Mar 90 Mae 84 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 862.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 862.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 875.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 880.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 870.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 870.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 882.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 887.50 -15.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 822.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 775.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,860.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 249.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6859)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 119,118 lots, or 5.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 5,017 5,042 4,986 5,041 4,981 5,009 28 98,982 145,964
Mar-24 4,950 4,979 4,935 4,976 4,919 4,951 32 15,995 25,997
May-24 4,987 5,014 4,975 5,013 4,964 4,991 27 3,705 10,982
Jul-24 4,953 4,979 4,939 4,979 4,930 4,963 33 198 4,548
Sep-24 4,950 4,950 4,909 4,944 4,897 4,928 31 224 2,628
Nov-24 4,913 4,920 4,888 4,920 4,891 4,900 9 14 45
Corn
Turnover: 473,204 lots, or 12.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,544 2,558 2,540 2,553 2,543 2,550 7 298,023 722,164
Mar-24 2,545 2,559 2,544 2,553 2,545 2,552 7 81,066 292,982
May-24 2,570 2,586 2,570 2,579 2,573 2,579 6 48,970 256,789
Jul-24 2,574 2,586 2,572 2,579 2,575 2,579 4 40,923 134,124
Sep-24 2,575 2,584 2,573 2,578 2,576 2,579 3 4,006 21,357
Nov-24 2,558 2,561 2,546 2,551 2,563 2,553 -10 216 225
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,191,903 lots, or 47.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 4,172 4,173 4,126 4,153 4,146 4,146 0 19,495 17,368
Jan-24 4,146 4,149 4,095 4,126 4,118 4,118 0 808,972 1,288,557
Mar-24 3,985 3,987 3,941 3,975 3,957 3,963 6 55,729 107,190
May-24 3,583 3,587 3,555 3,572 3,569 3,566 -3 211,447 946,349
Jul-24 3,565 3,565 3,534 3,551 3,546 3,545 -1 39,003 475,357
Aug-24 3,615 3,615 3,589 3,606 3,597 3,597 0 16,986 75,035
Sep-24 3,576 3,580 3,557 3,570 3,569 3,564 -5 35,615 203,455
Nov-24 3,547 3,549 3,526 3,532 3,540 3,537 -3 4,656 8,575
Palm Oil
Turnover: 806,223 lots, or 61.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 7,558 7,582 7,476 7,518 7,502 7,534 32 5,550 5,396
Jan-24 7,638 7,664 7,550 7,600 7,582 7,612 30 672,004 445,526
Feb-24 7,700 7,740 7,632 7,676 7,668 7,692 24 8,726 34,213
Mar-24 7,754 7,788 7,682 7,722 7,718 7,742 24 5,467 24,945
Apr-24 7,774 7,804 7,706 7,742 7,728 7,758 30 4,795 15,065
May-24 7,780 7,808 7,704 7,744 7,728 7,758 30 104,222 170,558
Jun-24 7,750 7,768 7,674 7,704 7,700 7,724 24 1,973 6,481
Jul-24 7,686 7,692 7,606 7,622 7,638 7,658 20 94 1,345
Aug-24 7,600 7,616 7,518 7,546 7,570 7,572 2 1,152 3,652
Sep-24 7,522 7,540 7,450 7,478 7,494 7,504 10 2,191 5,780
Oct-24 7,452 7,454 7,400 7,402 7,416 7,438 22 17 82
Nov-24 7,408 7,410 7,328 7,366 7,392 7,382 -10 32 34
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 969,698 lots, or 81.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 8,478 8,536 8,442 8,478 8,456 8,482 26 7,107 5,656
Jan-24 8,474 8,526 8,412 8,454 8,440 8,470 30 788,616 595,994
Mar-24 8,352 8,406 8,298 8,348 8,314 8,354 40 11,900 41,415
May-24 8,120 8,150 8,032 8,086 8,048 8,094 46 142,132 259,602
Jul-24 7,974 8,002 7,900 7,936 7,946 7,956 10 7,572 135,765
Aug-24 7,956 7,970 7,874 7,904 7,926 7,928 2 4,157 33,004
Sep-24 7,852 7,904 7,808 7,834 7,856 7,862 6 5,196 11,939
Nov-24 7,830 7,854 7,760 7,794 7,798 7,820 22 3,018 3,727
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322