Softs Report 11/06/2023

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower last week despite a week of very strong weekly export sales. Macro-economic data for the US was strong as well but demand ideas overall remain weak. Prices are supported by ideas of tight supplies here in the US and around the world. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 74.73 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 81,605 bales, from 79,594 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 79.00, 78.50, and 77.60 December, with resistance of 81.50, 82.70 and 83.80 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 284,742
: Positions :
: 37,343 29,787 78,281 83,460 151,220 71,080 12,782 270,165 272,071: 14,577 12,671
: :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: -208) :
: -720 431 3,990 -2,539 -5,304 -716 -633 16 -1,515: -224 1,307
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 10.5 27.5 29.3 53.1 25.0 4.5 94.9 95.5: 5.1 4.5
: :
: Total Traders: 300 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 95 114 57 64 47 22 255 230:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower last week, and the trends on the daily charts are down. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 335.00, 323.00, and 316.00 January, with resistance at 350.00, 370.00, and 375.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,889 :
: Positions :
: 1,703 6,488 1,037 0 6 3,826 468 310 927 885 1,722 :
: :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 :
: -252 -286 -8 -50 6 55 2 14 55 -16 209 :
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.3 54.6 8.7 0.0 0.1 32.2 3.9 2.6 7.8 7.4 14.5 :
: :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 67 :
: 8 9 4 0 . 21 . 5 9 17 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher and New York closed at new highs for the move on reports of logistical problems in Brazil ports. London finished the week with small losses. Showers and rains are now being reported in central and southern growing areas of Brazil and conditions are called good, but many areas have had too much rain, mostly in the south. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas remains strong. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve with the Vietnam harvest progressing. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.368 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 155.03 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 155.00, 153.00, and 150.00 December, and resistance is at 167.00, 170.00 and 173.00 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 2300, 2250, and 2220 January, with resistance at 2370, 2390, and 2430 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 241,991
: Positions :
: 30,930 28,603 77,100 58,923 115,429 64,985 10,162 231,938 231,295: 10,053 10,696
: :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: 4,669) :
: -345 -4,824 6,043 -1,783 3,862 1,427 -31 5,343 5,050: -674 -381
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.8 11.8 31.9 24.3 47.7 26.9 4.2 95.8 95.6: 4.2 4.4
: :
: Total Traders: 368 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 96 124 102 104 47 30 319 285:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/31/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
135,548 60,529 75,850 3,124 5,424 2,563
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 44.7% 56.0% 2.3% 4.0% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 50 42 7 12 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
37,440 14,833 9,963 1,766 10,706 14,559
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
27.6% 10.9% 7.3% 1.3% 7.9% 10.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
47 13 22 11 8 13
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,604 1,650
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.1% 1.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and at new highs for the move on port delays in Brazil and too much rain in central areas of the country. The market is still short of Sugar. There are still forecasts for and reports of rain in Brazil. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2710, 2670, and 2650 March and resistance is at 2810, 2840, and 2870 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 730.00, 719.00, and 714.00 January, with resistance at 753.00, 760.00, and 766.00 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,112,667
: Positions :
: 188,051 73,071 277,161 307,411 646,350 247,554 69,030 1,020,177 1,065,613: 92,490 47,054
: :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: 6,325) :
: -15,308 271 14,060 8,655 -7,319 5,181 3,440 12,589 10,452: -6,264 -4,127
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.9 6.6 24.9 27.6 58.1 22.2 6.2 91.7 95.8: 8.3 4.2
: :
: Total Traders: 240 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 37 71 67 68 40 20 216 170:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/31/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
93,573 34,235 65,411 7,399 7,473 1,992
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 36.6% 69.9% 7.9% 8.0% 2.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
130 35 41 7 8 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
30,832 3,724 6,736 2,631 1,989 3,070
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
32.9% 4.0% 7.2% 2.8% 2.1% 3.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 6 17 8 5 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,678 3,178
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.1% 3.4%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher Friday but slightly lower for the week. The trends are still up in New York. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports dropped 16.2% for the marketing year when compared to last year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.595 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3910 and 3950 December. Support is at 3820, 3800, and 3770 December, with resistance at 3910, 3940, and 3970 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3330, 3260, and 3200 December, with resistance at 3420, 3440, and 3470 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 465,679
: Positions :
: 85,718 43,874 186,380 122,960 205,015 55,727 17,875 450,785 453,144: 14,894 12,535
: :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: -1,153) :
: -2,974 5,940 2,003 963 -7,219 -795 -1,857 -802 -1,132: -351 -21
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.4 9.4 40.0 26.4 44.0 12.0 3.8 96.8 97.3: 3.2 2.7
: :
: Total Traders: 266 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 82 88 44 44 35 19 209 195:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/31/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
561,568 292,565 323,134 27,204 73,311 48,733
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 52.1% 57.5% 4.8% 13.1% 8.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
160 49 40 15 8 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
71,152 3,850 30,468 10,696 5,550 74,968
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.7% 0.7% 5.4% 1.9% 1.0% 13.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
48 5 25 15 12 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,782 1,554
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 0.3%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322