Grains Report 11/06/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 07, 2023 50 Oct 12, 2023
SOYBEAN November Nov 07, 2023 133 Nov 02, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed last week and trends are mixed in all three markets. Ukraine is still exporting through the Black Sea. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that it is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia, with production losses now expected. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to averages. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 565, 558, and 552 December, with resistance at 583, 584, and 604 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 624, 612, and 606 December, with resistance at 683, 684, and 692 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 696, 693, and 686 December, and resistance is at 730, 746, and 752 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 534,771
: Positions :
: 60,655 153,418 193,502 103,001 79,882 136,738 70,631 493,896 497,433: 40,875 37,338
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: 14,558) :
: 1,450 9,935 11,055 -554 -6,370 3,872 -500 15,823 14,120: -1,265 439
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 28.7 36.2 19.3 14.9 25.6 13.2 92.4 93.0: 7.6 7.0
: Total Traders: 404 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 111 110 134 106 88 47 35 335 307:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 246,478
: Positions :
: 30,441 69,782 69,534 49,589 57,511 76,033 27,192 225,596 224,019: 20,882 22,459
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: -779) :
: 267 1,737 1,147 -2,864 -4,770 278 792 -1,173 -1,094: 394 315
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.4 28.3 28.2 20.1 23.3 30.8 11.0 91.5 90.9: 8.5 9.1
: Total Traders: 220 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 54 64 56 65 37 23 171 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 81,928 :
: Positions :
: 52,427 25,595 2,488 734 499 3,857 32,739 4,672 1,938 1,728 5,432 :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 :
: 4,049 -652 32 -28 284 -1,080 2,721 -743 -227 671 762 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 64.0 31.2 3.0 0.9 0.6 4.7 40.0 5.7 2.4 2.1 6.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 122 :
: 57 47 4 . 4 9 24 10 8 8 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower again Friday but was unchanged on the weekly charts as January moved lower to trade in the November range. Near term cash market strength is going against bearish attitudes seen in later months. The harvest is almost over and less Rice is on offer from producers. The export sales report last week was solid but not spectacular. The USDA reports showed little to get excited about either up or down in price. The quality has been uneven with strong field yields but weak milling yields.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1338 January. Support is at 1560, 1553, and 1525 January and resistance is at 1592, 1600, and 1620 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 11,614 :
: Positions :
: 5,675 9,670 90 0 0 2,069 356 0 1,313 401 376 :
: :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 :
: -117 -271 2 0 0 253 -67 -5 -67 166 -310 :
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.9 83.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 17.8 3.1 0.0 11.3 3.4 3.2 :
: :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58 :
: 18 19 . 0 0 11 . 0 9 5 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower last week and trends are now mixed on the daily charts on clear weather in the US to promote active harvest progress against weather problems in Brazil. The dry weather in the central Midwest of the US is expected to return after some snow showers yesterday. It has turned very cold and the growing season is over for almost everyone in the Midwest. Trends are mixed in the market now on the daily charts. Oats closed lower. The US Corn harvest is continuing with good weather and yield reports showing good and bad results with no real trend evident. Farmers report no real sales of Corn as they wait for higher prices. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. Demand is increasing now. It is already hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is too wet. Conditions are expected to continue to improve over the next couple of weeks as a few showers are expected for Argentina and central and northern Brazil. These will not be enough to save crops but could buy the crops a little time until better rains arrive, hopefully in the near future.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 289.575 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 468, 465, and 458 December, and resistance is at 485, 507, and 509 December. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 370, 369, and 367 December, and resistance is at 389, 396, and 406 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,775,914
: Positions :
: 138,230 320,607 527,833 567,582 592,312 354,975 117,545 1,588,621 1,558,297: 187,293 217,617
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: -12,700) :
: -9,465 24,295 -10,163 -444 -31,420 4,052 8,428 -16,018 -8,859: 3,318 -3,841
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.8 18.1 29.7 32.0 33.4 20.0 6.6 89.5 87.7: 10.5 12.3
: Total Traders: 762 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 171 204 358 344 51 33 652 632:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 3,932 :
: Positions :
: 1,307 2,300 109 0 18 355 215 0 258 108 192 :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 :
: 8 66 -2 -61 -1 6 44 0 80 -76 -19 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 33.2 58.5 2.8 0.0 0.5 9.0 5.5 0.0 6.6 2.7 4.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 20 :
: 9 6 . 0 . . . 0 . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher last week, but Soybean Meal was slightly lower and Soybean Oil was lower. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Some showers are in the forecast for northern Bazil. Argentina is also dry but has started to get some showers and rains. Yield results for the US new crop show that production and yields are above and below APH data. The data has been called disappointing to traders as production appears to be less than expected so far this crop 6,000 tyons of US Soybeans.ear. Showers and rains are in the forecast for the rest of the week so harvest progress will be slower. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone, and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries and reports indicate that the availability of Brazil Soybeans might be ramping down. The US sales to China have ramped up in the last month but have been quiet for the last week or so.
Overnight News: China bought 125
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1366 and 1402 January. Support is at 1330, 1319, and 1298 January, and resistance is at 1363, 1383, and 1388 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 450.00 and 467.00 December. Support is at 433.00, 422.00, and 420.00 December, and resistance is at 452.00, 455.00, and 458.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 4870 and 4600 December. Support is at 4630, 4590, and 4430 December, with resistance at 5080, 5130, and 5210 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 813,932
: Positions :
: 70,086 62,252 208,736 309,270 427,858 168,535 44,402 756,626 743,248: 57,306 70,684
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: -191,150) :
: 4,896 -9,886 -94,819 -77,201 -65,955 -14,965 -13,488 -182,090 -184,149: -9,060 -7,002
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.6 7.6 25.6 38.0 52.6 20.7 5.5 93.0 91.3: 7.0 8.7
: Total Traders: 545 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 123 162 204 230 47 29 447 461:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 542,089
: Positions :
: 52,953 69,577 142,279 168,773 268,572 143,719 33,912 507,725 514,341: 34,364 27,749
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: 16,393) :
: 3,333 9,425 -5,791 12,274 11,894 5,195 2,368 15,011 17,897: 1,381 -1,504
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 12.8 26.2 31.1 49.5 26.5 6.3 93.7 94.9: 6.3 5.1
: Total Traders: 305 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 72 97 87 86 44 24 255 233:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 588,359
: Positions :
: 89,963 24,295 163,972 134,780 353,232 143,049 12,079 531,764 553,578: 56,594 34,780
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: 19,765) :
: 12,429 3,009 -241 1,754 15,385 5,379 -363 19,321 17,790: 444 1,975
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.3 4.1 27.9 22.9 60.0 24.3 2.1 90.4 94.1: 9.6 5.9
: Total Traders: 308 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 44 93 108 105 43 18 278 227:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on news of reduced Indian imports and ideas of increasing Malaysian supplies. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Canola closed higher last week. Trends are down on the weekly charts but mixed on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 672.00, 666.00, and 660.00 January, with resistance at 690.00, 704.00, and 711.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3730, 3650, and 3610 January, with resistance at 3810, 3820, and 3880 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 44,917 :
: Positions :
: 35,947 19,656 750 4,800 520 0 1,280 80 669 11,630 6,951 :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 :
: 380 260 50 90 0 0 0 0 -40 40 40 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 80.0 43.8 1.7 10.7 1.2 0.0 2.8 0.2 1.5 25.9 15.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 34 :
: 10 12 . . . 0 . . . 10 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 281,797 :
: Positions :
: 228,359 124,952 8,557 2,720 1,465 3,201 109,370 23,321 6,557 9,795 8,440 :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 :
: 5,667 -3,607 594 391 -104 -1,568 9,013 1,103 -706 -1,457 -5,550 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.0 44.3 3.0 1.0 0.5 1.1 38.8 8.3 2.3 3.5 3.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 298 :
: 51 54 . 6 4 9 94 21 57 51 39 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry today but some snow tomorrow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 85 Dec 140 Dec
115 Dec
75 Nov

Secember
70 Dec 140 Dec
115 Dec 75 Jan

January
71 Mar 145 Mar 90 Mae 74 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian pworts
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 817.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 827.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 840.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 845.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 825.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 835.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 847.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 852.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 780.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 760.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3660.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 232.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6405)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 136,144 lots, or 6.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,919 4,945 4,919 4,945 4,929 4,942 13 400 1,728
Jan-24 4,929 4,955 4,899 4,942 4,912 4,932 20 111,185 174,899
Mar-24 4,854 4,876 4,834 4,874 4,844 4,859 15 20,119 26,574
May-24 4,900 4,924 4,881 4,920 4,891 4,907 16 3,584 11,381
Jul-24 4,873 4,894 4,854 4,893 4,863 4,876 13 438 5,082
Sep-24 4,844 4,871 4,832 4,866 4,838 4,858 20 418 3,004
Corn
Turnover: 749,559 lots, or 19.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 2,557 2,565 2,557 2,565 2,550 2,560 10 979 9,826
Jan-24 2,553 2,575 2,550 2,568 2,547 2,563 16 471,589 765,320
Mar-24 2,560 2,580 2,557 2,569 2,555 2,568 13 144,745 261,525
May-24 2,585 2,602 2,583 2,591 2,581 2,592 11 51,675 223,467
Jul-24 2,584 2,599 2,583 2,588 2,582 2,589 7 58,695 123,228
Sep-24 2,580 2,594 2,579 2,587 2,575 2,585 10 21,876 16,740
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,772,239 lots, or 69.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,185 4,185 4,185 4,185 4,185 4,185 0 166 13,176
Dec-23 4,128 4,188 4,105 4,182 4,089 4,149 60 42,445 38,404
Jan-24 4,051 4,124 4,035 4,118 4,016 4,082 66 1,193,756 1,470,005
Mar-24 3,875 3,928 3,850 3,928 3,829 3,894 65 37,750 82,138
May-24 3,486 3,552 3,483 3,547 3,463 3,517 54 316,826 815,586
Jul-24 3,471 3,540 3,471 3,536 3,452 3,504 52 87,736 484,324
Aug-24 3,550 3,597 3,536 3,592 3,517 3,562 45 36,942 68,743
Sep-24 3,516 3,571 3,513 3,568 3,492 3,542 50 56,618 174,786
Palm Oil
Turnover: 799,197 lots, or 5.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,246 7,200 -46 72 16
Dec-23 7,338 7,338 7,236 7,318 7,294 7,288 -6 14,116 15,636
Jan-24 7,360 7,382 7,266 7,350 7,332 7,318 -14 675,246 429,494
Feb-24 7,420 7,420 7,318 7,406 7,376 7,366 -10 11,116 30,564
Mar-24 7,428 7,452 7,344 7,438 7,390 7,392 2 6,881 22,221
Apr-24 7,414 7,448 7,342 7,434 7,382 7,394 12 4,765 11,462
May-24 7,418 7,436 7,328 7,428 7,366 7,382 16 80,979 120,594
Jun-24 7,372 7,404 7,304 7,398 7,334 7,352 18 2,949 3,877
Jul-24 7,312 7,352 7,258 7,350 7,284 7,308 24 133 1,144
Aug-24 7,262 7,278 7,198 7,270 7,212 7,218 6 201 1,868
Sep-24 7,192 7,220 7,146 7,202 7,154 7,176 22 2,678 4,005
Oct-24 7,168 7,178 7,110 7,118 7,128 7,148 20 61 87
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,028,883 lots, or 83.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 8,256 8,256 8,256 8,256 8,248 8,256 8 31 5,090
Dec-23 8,296 8,354 8,238 8,340 8,268 8,290 22 11,587 22,190
Jan-24 8,200 8,228 8,126 8,208 8,156 8,172 16 858,601 583,202
Mar-24 8,016 8,036 7,950 8,026 7,976 7,986 10 7,973 37,409
May-24 7,736 7,804 7,700 7,794 7,686 7,746 60 124,140 202,010
Jul-24 7,658 7,748 7,630 7,730 7,610 7,678 68 17,234 129,552
Aug-24 7,632 7,716 7,612 7,710 7,600 7,650 50 5,454 30,095
Sep-24 7,570 7,646 7,548 7,638 7,524 7,582 58 3,863 8,610
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322