Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed lower again yesterday and trends are down on the daily charts. Macro-economic data for the US was very strong as well. Ideas are that the US could be headed into a recession and cause demand to be soft. Prices are supported by ideas of tight supplies here in the US and around the world. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 74.62 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 76,780 bales, from 76,292 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 457,100 bales this year and 87,800 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 25,800 bales thius year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 79.00, 78.50, and 77.60 December, with resistance of 81.50, 82.70 and 83.80 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower yesterday, and the trends on the daily charts are turning down. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 369.00, 365.00, and 358.00 January, with resistance at 386.00, 393.00, and 401.00 January.
General Comments: New York closed sharply lower and gave back all the gains of the previous day, and London closed lower yesterday on r3eports of good rains in Brazil Coffee areas and despite port congestion in Brazil ports causing some shipping delays., Trends are mixed in New York but are down in London. Showers and rains are now being reported in central and southern growing areas of Brazil and conditions are called good, but many areas have had too much rain, mostly in the south. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas remains strong. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve with the Vietnam harvest progressing and the US Dollar moving higher. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high. These are moderating as the new harvest comes to the market.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.380 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 156.42 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 155.00, 153.00, and 150.00 December, and resistance is at 163.00, 165.00 and 167.00 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 2300, 2250, and 2220 January, with resistance at 2370, 2390, and 2430 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday on port delays in Brazil and too much rain in central areas of the country. The market is still short of Sugar. There are still forecasts for and reports of rain in Brazil. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2710, 2670, and 2650 March and resistance is at 2810, 2840, and 2870 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 730.00, 719.00, and 714.00 January, with resistance at 747.00, 753.00, and 760.00 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday in correction trading. The trends are still up in both markets, but a top could be forming in New York. Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports dropped 16.2% for the marketing year when compared to last year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.625 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 3720, 3640, and 3040 December. Support is at 3780, 3700, and 3600 December, with resistance at 3880, 3920, and 3980 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3330, 3260, and 3200 December, with resistance at 3420, 3440, and 3470 December.