Grains Report 11/02/2023

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 2
For the week ended Oct 26, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 275.6 0.0 11362.4 12171.5 4542.8 105.4
hrw 57.5 0.0 2069.0 3352.8 785.1 14.2
srw 24.1 0.0 2668.0 2165.0 1051.0 82.0
hrs 136.9 0.0 3922.9 3617.5 1522.0 9.2
white 55.1 0.0 2415.7 2896.7 1061.3 0.0
durum 2.1 0.0 286.8 139.4 123.4 0.0
corn 748.1 12.7 18275.4 14464.4 13285.8 897.9
soybeans 1010.0 0.0 23269.1 32228.3 13406.2 0.0
soymeal 86.4 0.2 5608.0 3970.1 4858.3 4.7
soyoil 1.9 0.0 22.7 29.6 20.6 0.6
upland cotton 457.1 87.8 6538.3 8630.1 4591.5 500.5
pima cotton 25.8 0.0 128.9 103.9 79.7 1.5
sorghum 379.5 0.0 2926.9 323.9 2492.8 180.0
barley 0.0 0.0 16.1 14.0 15.9 0.0
rice 93.5 0.0 1053.1 600.9 572.1 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 03, 2023 124 Oct 11, 2023
SOYBEAN November Nov 03, 2023 437 Oct 30, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher yesterday in correction trading. Trends are still turning down in all three markets. Ukraine is still exporting through the Black Sea. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that it is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to averages. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 524 December. Support is at 552, 546, and 537 December, with resistance at 571, 583, and 594 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 524 December. Support is at 624, 612, and 606 December, with resistance at 649, 668, and 688 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 696, 693, and 686 December, and resistance is at 730, 746, and 752 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed mostly lower again yesterday with only November able to close higher. Near term cash market strength is going against bearish attitudes seen in later months. The harvest is almost over and less Rice is on offer from producers. The export sales report last week was solid but not spectacular. The USDA reports showed little to get excited about either up or down in price. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas as the harvest moves forward. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat seen during the growing season.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1590 and 1578 January. Support is at 1594, 1592, and 1575 January and resistance is at 1620, 1637, and 1653 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday and trends started to turn down on the daily charts on clear weather in the US to promote active harvest progress. The dry weather in the central Midwest of the US is expected to return after some snow showers yesterday. It has turned very cold and the growing season is over for almost everyone in the Midwest. Trends are mixed in the market now on the daily charts. Oats closed lower. The US Corn harvest is continuing with good weather and yield reports showing good and bad results with no real trend evident. Farmers report no real sales of Corn as they wait for higher prices. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. Demand is increasing now. It is already hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is too wet. Conditions are expected to continue to improve over the next couple of weeks as a few showers are expected for Argentina and central and northern Brazil. These will not be enough to save crops but could buy the crops a little time until better rains arrive, hopefully in the near future.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 467, 456, and 443 December. Support is at 465, 458, and 452 December, and resistance is at 484, 495, and 507 December. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 370, 369, and 367 December, and resistance is at 389, 396, and 406 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher again yesterday, but Soybean Oil was loweragain. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Some showers are in the forecast for northern Bazil. Argentina is also dry but has started to get some showers and rains. Yield results for the US new crop show that production and yields are above and below APH data with no real trend showing just yet. The data has been called disappointing to traders as production appears to be less than expected so far this crop year. Showers and rains are in the forecast for the rest of the week so harvest progress will be slower. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone, and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries and reports indicate that the availability of Brazil Soybeans might be ramping down. The US sales to China have ramped up in the last month but have been quiet for the last week or so.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1298, 1292, and 1270 January, and resistance is at 1321, 1331, and 1339 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 422.00, 420.00, and 417.00 December, and resistance is at 439.00, 448.00, and 452.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4980, 4900, and 4470 December, with resistance at 5210, 5300, and 5350 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today in sympathy with the rally in Crude Oil futures. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Canola closed lower yesterday. Trends are down on the weekly charts but mixed on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 653.00 and 628.00 January. Support is at 672.00, 666.00, and 660.00 January, with resistance at 685.00, 696.00, and 704.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3510 January. Support is at 3650, 3610, and 3570 January, with resistance at 3730, 3810, and 3880 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry today but some snow tomorrow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 85 Dec 140 Dec
115 Dec
75 Nov

Secember
70 Dec 140 Dec
115 Dec 75 Jan

January
71 Mar 145 Mar 90 Mae 74 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 810.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 820.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 835.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 837.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 817.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 827.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 842.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 845.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 777.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 757.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,690.00 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 232.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.747)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 131,203 lots, or 6.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,861 4,903 4,861 4,882 4,871 4,882 11 481 1,904
Jan-24 4,851 4,893 4,828 4,892 4,878 4,859 -19 107,637 191,803
Mar-24 4,815 4,828 4,791 4,827 4,832 4,809 -23 17,913 27,170
May-24 4,856 4,879 4,834 4,879 4,873 4,858 -15 3,947 11,503
Jul-24 4,831 4,852 4,811 4,850 4,846 4,833 -13 744 5,203
Sep-24 4,810 4,828 4,795 4,825 4,826 4,813 -13 481 2,809
Corn
Turnover: 383,505 lots, or 9.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 2,530 2,543 2,525 2,525 2,536 2,528 -8 167 11,061
Jan-24 2,546 2,550 2,538 2,548 2,541 2,544 3 232,596 773,326
Mar-24 2,546 2,557 2,545 2,555 2,547 2,551 4 69,386 259,853
May-24 2,574 2,585 2,574 2,583 2,574 2,579 5 30,633 216,639
Jul-24 2,576 2,588 2,576 2,585 2,578 2,582 4 39,686 121,450
Sep-24 2,575 2,583 2,570 2,580 2,575 2,576 1 11,037 13,729
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,316,500 lots, or 50.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,098 4,150 4,098 4,150 4,037 4,132 95 153 13,504
Dec-23 4,025 4,075 4,025 4,069 4,009 4,054 45 42,767 41,536
Jan-24 3,965 4,002 3,956 3,997 3,941 3,983 42 971,156 1,409,979
Mar-24 3,786 3,814 3,784 3,812 3,780 3,797 17 31,259 74,725
May-24 3,439 3,456 3,428 3,452 3,423 3,442 19 181,971 805,398
Jul-24 3,415 3,446 3,415 3,440 3,415 3,431 16 41,946 484,050
Aug-24 3,483 3,508 3,483 3,503 3,482 3,494 12 23,923 68,046
Sep-24 3,462 3,486 3,460 3,481 3,456 3,473 17 23,325 173,260
Palm Oil
Turnover: 964,384 lots, or 69.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 – – – 7,246 7,058 7,246 188 0 88
Dec-23 7,092 7,294 7,034 7,272 7,082 7,162 80 18,441 20,383
Jan-24 7,146 7,338 7,066 7,320 7,114 7,212 98 840,678 448,239
Feb-24 7,182 7,376 7,110 7,358 7,154 7,256 102 14,086 29,829
Mar-24 7,236 7,390 7,136 7,372 7,184 7,274 90 5,436 20,663
Apr-24 7,226 7,374 7,130 7,356 7,178 7,268 90 4,349 10,369
May-24 7,194 7,360 7,120 7,342 7,172 7,264 92 77,394 110,529
Jun-24 7,152 7,328 7,106 7,308 7,152 7,238 86 1,848 2,625
Jul-24 7,148 7,272 7,090 7,248 7,120 7,214 94 140 1,319
Aug-24 7,102 7,206 7,044 7,182 7,086 7,138 52 144 1,769
Sep-24 7,052 7,142 6,972 7,122 7,016 7,082 66 1,844 3,508
Oct-24 7,022 7,118 6,980 7,114 6,990 7,072 82 24 80
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,105,933 lots, or 88.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 8,190 8,190 8,150 8,180 8,112 8,172 60 311 4,996
Dec-23 8,102 8,252 8,020 8,240 8,064 8,152 88 17,689 26,296
Jan-24 7,998 8,146 7,920 8,124 7,966 8,048 82 959,992 554,539
Mar-24 7,862 7,952 7,770 7,936 7,822 7,884 62 5,712 36,445
May-24 7,558 7,664 7,480 7,650 7,542 7,596 54 103,558 200,929
Jul-24 7,484 7,578 7,424 7,572 7,484 7,520 36 10,910 126,767
Aug-24 7,498 7,564 7,426 7,554 7,476 7,512 36 3,970 29,552
Sep-24 7,430 7,498 7,366 7,492 7,408 7,444 36 3,791 8,342
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322