About The Author

Phil Flynn

Phil Flynn is writer of The Energy Report, a daily market commentary discussing oil, the Middle East, American government, economics, and their effects on the world's energies markets, as well as other commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (888) 264-5665

Visit Website →

The Odd Couple. Manic Metals Report 11/12/2026

By On November 12, 2026 - 9:26 AM · In Manic Metals Report, Market Commentaries
On November 13, gold was asked to remove itself from its place in the world’s central bank vaults. That request came from the Federal Reserve. Deep down, gold knew the Fed was right, with rate hikes coming and the 10-year yield near 5%. But gold also knew it would be back someday, because it always comes back.
With nowhere else to go, gold moved in with its old friend, the US dollar. Years earlier, the dollar had been thrown out by China, Poland, the Czech Republic and half the world’s central banks, which went off and bought gold instead.
Now one of them buys at every dip and the other shows up with every hot CPI number. One loves a crisis and the other loves a rate hike. One gets dumped every time the inflation numbers come in hot, and the other gets kicked to the curb every time the Fed blinks.
Can two divorced markets share a trading screen without driving each other crazy?
I guess you could call it gold’s odd relationship with the dollar. While I was looking up the famous opening to The Odd Couple, I realized that tomorrow, for all you TV trivia buffs, Tomorrow is the day Felix Unger’s wife asked him to remove himself from their place of residence. So I guess you could say happy anniversary to those who celebrate.
What’s been really odd is the historical is the relationship between gold and the dollar.
 A strong dollar often weighs on gold, and recent dollar strength has kept gold from mounting a rally. Yet physical demand is heating up. According to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends report for the third quarter of 2026, central banks bought 321 tons of gold in the quarter, their biggest quarterly purchase since the fourth quarter of 2024. That was up 8% from 296 tons in the second quarter and up 42% from a year earlier, well above the five-year quarterly average of 227 tons. China led the buying with 63 ttons, followed by Poland with 40, and year-to-date purchases now total 675 tons. As the World Gold Council’s John Reade put it, central banks may have used the recent dollar strength to move money from maturing short-term US Treasuries into gold.
So I thought it might be a good time to step back and look at some of the times gold and the dollar moved in the same direction. Could we be on the verge of a surge in the dollar as the Fed looks to raise rates? Either way, with PPI coming out on Friday the 13th, the anniversary of Felix Unger’s dark day, could this episode get ugly? Or is this the time to buy gold and fade the dollar?
Gold and the dollar are supposed to be like Felix and Oscar: when one’s up, the other’s down. But every so often, these two end up on the same side of the couch. It tends to happen when fear, a crisis or central bank buying matters more than what the currency is doing.
Take 2005. The Dollar Index rose about 12% to 13% for the year, helped by Fed rate hikes and the Homeland Investment Act bringing money home. You’d think gold would’ve been crushed. Instead it gained about 18%, from roughly $438 to $517, and broke $500 for the first time since the late ’80s.
Then came the first half of 2010 and the euro crisis. The Greek debt crisis pushed the Dollar Index from the high 70s to about 88 by June, and gold hit a then-record of about $1,250 that same month. Scared money ran to the dollar and gold at the same time, because both are safe havens.
In the summer of 2019, the Dollar Index was near two-year highs around 98 to 99. Gold didn’t care. It broke out of a six-year range, from about $1,280 to $1,550, as the Fed turned to rate cuts and the pile of negative-yielding debt around the world kept growing.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February and March of 2022, the Dollar Index firmed toward 99, and gold still spiked from about $1,800 to about $2,070 on March 8. The same thing happened in October 2023 after Hamas attacked Israel. The Dollar Index was around 106, near its cycle highs, and gold still jumped from about $1,820 to above $2,000 within weeks.
But 2024 was the clearest case of these two getting along. The Dollar Index gained about 7% for the year, and gold gained about 27%. In October 2024, the dollar rallied from about 100.5 to 104 while gold set records near $2,790. Felix and Oscar were practically finishing each other’s sentences.
So why does the odd couple sometimes get along?
 First, safe-haven demand: in a crisis, money pours into both the dollar and gold, and the usual relationship goes out the window.
 Second, and this is the big one, central bank buying. Since 2022, central banks led by China, Poland, Turkey and India have been buying gold to reduce their reliance on the dollar and protect themselves against sanctions.
They’re not buying because of where the dollar is trading. That’s the main reason the old relationship has weakened.
 Third, falling real yields and expected rate cuts have at times outweighed a strong dollar, as they did in 2019 and 2024.
And fourth, when the dollar is strong, gold priced in yen, euros, rupees and yuan rises even faster, which pulls in buyers in those countries.
Of course, every sitcom has its dark episode. In the second half of 2008, the dollar surged from about 72 to 88, and gold fell from about $1,000 to $700 as investors sold everything for cash. Gold only recovered once the Fed started its emergency easing. It was QE that saved gold as well as other commodities.
So here’s the bottom line: the dollar-gold inverse is a tendency, not a law. When fear or central bank demand takes over, these two can rally together. Felix and Oscar may drive each other crazy, but they never really move out.
Another odd thing in this odd couple is the gold-silver ratio. Remember, silver lagged gold for most of last year. On April 22, 2025, Kitco had the ratio at a whopping 105.8, with gold at $3,460 and silver at just $32.70. Then silver broke out. Silver was in the high $40s a year ago, then rose 33.5% in December alone and another 64.5% in January, hitting an all-time high of about $121.60 on January 29, 2026. That’s when it played catch-up with a vengeance. From that April day to the January peaks, gold gained about 62% and silver gained about 272%, according to an analysis on Investing.com. The ratio collapsed to its low for the year, around 44 to 46, which means one ounce of gold bought only about 45 ounces of silver.
Then, like Oscar after a weekend poker game, silver crashed hard. It fell much further than gold, briefly broke below $50 in late October, and pushed the ratio back up to about 79 in early November. This morning December gold is trading at $3,949.20, down $51.30 and back below that big $4,000 level, after trading as high as $4,005.90 and as low as $3,929.50. December silver is at $50.975, down $1.027, after a range of $50.725 to $51.945. That puts the ratio near 77.5, which means silver is still historically cheap compared with gold.
Silver had been pulling ahead lately. On Wednesday gold fell while silver rose 1.5%, and the ratio eased from above 79 earlier this month to about 77. This morning silver is giving a little of that back, down about 2% against gold’s 1.3%. Just like Felix and Oscar, these two can’t stay on the same page for more than a day.
History says gold tends to lead and silver tends to follow, and when silver gets going it usually moves a lot faster. A Silver Institute study puts the long-run equilibrium for the ratio around 60, and at 77 we’re about 30% above that. Big gaps like this tend to shrink by half in about 17 months. Just remember that when the ratio gets really narrow, like it did in January, that’s usually been the top, not the start.
So can gold and silver share a trading screen without driving each other crazy? If silver gets back to pulling ahead, the odd couple’s little brother may be getting ready for another run. With PPI coming Friday the 13th, though, this episode could still have a plot twist.
The rest of the metals family isn’t getting along much better this morning. December copper is at $6.2150, down 7.5 cents, as the stronger dollar and fears of a Fed rate hike take a little of the shine off Dr. Copper. Still, with AI data centers, the power grid and electrification all hungry for the red metal, every dip in copper has been finding buyers.
January platinum is at $1,527.40, down $11.10, but the long-term story is still bullish. The World Platinum Investment Council expects a deficit of 283,000 ounces in the second half of 2026 and a deficit from 2027 on. China has already imported a net 1.85 million ounces through August.
December palladium is taking the biggest hit, down $32.10 at $1,014. But Heraeus forecasts a 345,000-ounce deficit, with supply expected to fall about 4% as Nornickel output slips, so the bulls may get the last laugh. Johnson Matthey sees a surplus instead, so not everybody agrees.
Like Felix and Oscar, these markets may drive each other crazy, but there’s opportunity in every episode. Sign up for the wildly popular Phil Flynn Daily Trade Levels, and get my Manic Metals Report and my Energy Report. Stay tuned to the Fox Business Network and follow me on X at @EnergyPhilFlynn. Then call me at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com to open an account at Price Futures Group today. Don’t wait for the next episode to start without you!
Thanks,

Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report and Manic Metals Report

Contributor to FOX Business Network

2918 S. Wentworth Ave., FL 1, Chicago, Illinois 60616

312 264 4364 (Direct)  |  888 264 5665 (Direct)  |  800 769 7021 (Main)  |  312 264 4303 (Fax)

www.pricegroup.com

Please do not leave any instructions for orders in your message, as we cannot execute instructions left through email or voicemail. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner.  PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

 

Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364        
Tagged with: • • • •