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Phil Flynn

Phil Flynn is writer of The Energy Report, a daily market commentary discussing oil, the Middle East, American government, economics, and their effects on the world's energies markets, as well as other commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (888) 264-5665

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Whiplash Wednesday: Metals Can’t Decide If They Love Us or Hate Us. Manic Metals Report 11/11/2026

By On November 11, 2026 - 9:26 AM · In Manic Metals Report, Market Commentaries
Every day is a new adventure in the metals, which seem to make big moves up one day and down the next, even though the fundamentals underneath stay bullish. Yesterday a hot CPI report shocked the metals by raising fears of a 50-basis-point rate hike in December. Silver plunged, gold fell hard, and copper and platinum went down with them. Palladium held its ground and finished almost unchanged. Today, as we remember, pray for and thank all the veterans who served our country, the metals are bouncing back like nothing happened.
The damage on the December futures yesterday was real. Gold settled near $4,030, down about $84. Silver dropped about $1.47 to roughly $51.23, copper lost about 11 cents to about $6.23, and January platinum fell about $23 to near $1,538. This morning, at 4:24 AM Central, December gold is at $4,057.40, up $27.20, and December silver is at $52.975, up $1.75, which wins back more than it lost yesterday. December copper is at $6.30, up 6.5 cents, and January platinum is at $1,567.50, up $29.10. December palladium is the star of the morning at $1,085.50, up $64.70. If you got whiplash, you’re not alone.
The headline that started it all was “Gold, silver plunge as hotter U.S. inflation raises prospect of larger Fed rate hike.” The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October against expectations of 0.3%, and core prices rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.
That’s the third straight month of 0.3% core inflation, which tells the Fed fears that higher energy costs are working their way into everything else. Shelter, food and auto insurance all chipped in. Because of last year’s shutdown, there’s still no official year-over-year number. Yet based on the midterm results voters are feeling inflation even as the economy is really humming along.  That should increase demand for metals unless he Fed really slows the economy.
Next came “Fed’s Waller and Logan signal readiness to hike higher and faster, with 50 basis points on the table for December.” Fed Governor Christopher Waller had already said that a 0.3% core reading would put a half-point hike in play, warning, “Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.”
Then Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed may need to “move more rapidly” and wants at least another half point of hikes before it pauses. Futures markets now price about an 88% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting and about a 12% chance of a half point. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed toward 4.94% and the dollar firmed, a tough combination for metals that don’t pay interest.
The good news is that the world’s central banks don’t seem to care much about the Fed’s next move, because “China buys gold for two straight years as central bank demand remains a key pillar of support.” According to Kitco News, the World Gold Council’s Krishan Gopaul said China bought 26 tonnes of gold in October, lifting its official holdings to 2,435 tonnes. As Gopaul put it, “This is now 2 tonnes behind France’s gold reserves.”
China isn’t buying alone, and the central bank shopping list keeps growing.
Gopaul noted that the Czech National Bank added 2.5 tonnes in October, bringing it to 90 tonnes and leaving it 10 tonnes short of its 100-tonne target. Uzbekistan’s central bank bought 7 tonnes, putting its net purchases this year at 63 tonnes and its total holdings at 453 tonnes. Poland’s central bank bought an estimated 27 tonnes and hit its 700-tonne target. Governor Adam Glapinski didn’t sound like a man ready to stop: “I see no reason why we should stop buying gold.” Should we be buying then too?
The summer was even busier, which tells you central banks treat lower prices as a sale.
As I have reported before The World Gold Council reported that central banks bought 321 tonnes of gold in the third quarter.
That’s up 42% from a year ago and well above the five-year quarterly average of 227 tonnes. The council expects demand to “remain firm in Q4.”
It also noted that the buying picks up when prices fall, which “could provide some price support and stability,” though it stopped short of calling it a firm floor. In other words, the dip buyers with the deepest pockets in the world are still out there.
For balance, there’s also the headline “Gold reserve repatriations don’t mean central banks are de-dollarizing.” That’s a Fed view that brings the gold bulls back down to earth a little. Bringing gold home doesn’t mean the dollar is being dumped. Still, the steady buying from central banks says plenty on its own.
Platinum has a quieter bullish case that’s building under the surface. The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a deficit of 283,000 ounces in the second half of 2026, after the first half’s surplus came mostly from ETF selling rather than any real drop in demand.
 It expects the market to swing back to a full-year deficit in 2027.
China’s net platinum imports reached 1.85 million ounces by August, matching last year’s pace even with weaker car production. The council also points to new demand from AI-related uses in glass, electronics and crucibles. It says the price pullback this year “offers an opportunity to build exposure.”  And the seasonals favor it as well . Moore Research has a trade in play Were you by April platinum November 24th and sell it on January 26th that’s coming up and that’s made money 13 out of the last 15 years for an average profit of $6827
  Palladium is the comeback kid this morning, and supply is the bullish story. Heraeus forecasts a palladium deficit of 345,000 ounces in 2026 and expects global mine supply to fall about 4%, partly because Russia’s Nornickel is processing lower-grade ore. Not everyone agrees: Johnson Matthey sees a surplus because car demand is soft. But a $64 jump in one morning shows how fast this market can move when the shorts get nervous.
So what’s next for these moody metals? Well they don’t have to worry about the PPI at least not today.   There’s no economic data today because of Veterans Day, and the bond market is closed, so the next inflation test is the Producer Price Index on Friday at 7:30 AM Central. If PPI comes in hot, the metals may need a therapist, a fainting couch and a very long weekend. If it comes in cool, the bulls will be back to acting like yesterday never happened. Either way, buckle up, because in this market Fundamentally wants to move higher but the macroeconomics are holding us back.
I want to take a moment and thank all the veterans for their service and pray for them and their families and thank them for keeping America safe I also want to invite you to stay tuned to the Fox Business Network because they’re the only network in America that is invested in you and believe it or not even the weather can impact the metals so make sure you download the fox weather app. Also if you haven’t signed up for the Phil Flynn wildly popular daily trade levels or the energy report you should do so by calling me at 888-264-5665 or e-mail me at pflynnn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,

Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report and Manic Metals Report

Contributor to FOX Business Network

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