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Phil Flynn

Phil Flynn is writer of The Energy Report, a daily market commentary discussing oil, the Middle East, American government, economics, and their effects on the world's energies markets, as well as other commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (888) 264-5665

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Free Fallin’. The Energy Report 11/09/2026

By On November 9, 2026 - 9:48 AM · In Market Commentaries, Phil Flynn Energy Report
And I’m free, I’m free fallin’ Oil has found its Tom Petty soundtrack, and drivers are hoping the pump keeps playing it as prices are free fallin. After the biggest weekly drop since April 2020, WTI is trading around $88 and Brent near $94.90. Last week Brent lost more than 16%, and a slide like that takes more than hope. The fear premium is coming out, and the supply picture is looking better. Midwest refinery outages have been resolved, putting refiners back in the game. President Trump’s comment that further major U.S. attacks on Iran are “highly unlikely” gives the market another reason to let go of fear. But keep your seat belt on. Ships were attacked again over the weekend, and geopolitical risk has not left the building.
If you think this is just a peace-talk trade, look at the barrels. It’s a supply story too. Refiners are coming back online, and crude is finding ways through or around the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq says it has a deal with Washington to ship crude through a lane near Oman. Less fear plus more supply is the combination oil bulls don’t want to hear. The market is pricing in improvement, not a miracle.
Even Wall Street is starting to talk about the G-word again: glut. JPMorgan said in a Friday report that recovering Middle Eastern flows, rising production elsewhere and weak demand have pushed global supply above consumption, estimating a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October.
Not everyone in Washington is celebrating yet. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Iran’s demands “unacceptable” and, in some cases, “outrageous.” The risks keep coming. Houthi forces claimed an attack on Saudi Aramco’s Riyadh office, though the damage was limited to windows, and Iranian media reported that no ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
The headlines say one thing, but the loading data say another. Bloomberg’s Javier Blas reports that preliminary November 1–5 loading data show no sign of a decline in Middle East oil flows outside Iran, despite continuing Iranian attacks on tankers. Crude loadings are tracking near October levels, which were close to pre-war levels, and early figures point to a big increase in refined-product loadings.
 The numbers are preliminary, not an all-clear. They do suggest supply is holding up better than the headlines would have you believe, and that gives this falling market another reason to keep the pressure on.
Natural gas traders have spent weeks waiting for winter to show up, and it may finally be on the way. December natural gas futures are trading right around $3.03 this morning after LNG feedgas flows, lower production and modestly cooler forecasts pushed the contract back above $3.000 on Friday. The weather is the real story.
According to FOX Weather’s November 8 forecast, more than 160 million Americans could see below-average temperatures by Saturday, November 14, a dramatic turnaround from Tuesday, when more than 300 million are expected to enjoy above-average warmth.
There’s a chill in the air and natural gas prices are popping as temperatures start to drop. Front-month Henry Hub futures are trading around $3.01 to $3.03 this morning, firming up after the weather models shifted and started flashing colder risks into the middle of the month.
FOX Weather is flagging a potential nor’easter later this week that could deliver the season’s first real cold shot across the East. A wave of low pressure is expected to organize over the Ohio Valley mid-week before tracking toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, spreading rain and pulling colder Canadian air in behind it. Highs are forecast to drop into the 30s and 40s across the Northeast, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by late Friday into the weekend, with lows plunging into the 20s for more than 110 million people. Accumulating snow looks most likely in the higher elevations of New England and the interior Northeast while the coast stays more on the rainy side.
This setup is being helped by an unusually early polar vortex disruption, potentially the earliest on record. The FOX Forecast Center notes the coldest air is still pooling overseas for now and the Super El Niño is expected to keep much of the northern U.S. warmer than average through most of November. Any broader Arctic impacts from the vortex would more likely show up later in the month or into December. Models remain divergent, so volatility stays high.
El Niño is already putting its stamp on the pattern. It typically favors a more active southern storm track and that is showing up with atmospheric rivers targeting the Pacific Northwest with rounds of soaking rain and an El Niño-fueled system bringing a dangerous flood threat across South Texas and the Texas Hill Country.
The Super El Niño points to a wetter South and West this winter, which can help ease drought in places like the Southwest and Southern Plains, while the northern tier stays milder on average. That southern wetness and northern warmth is a classic El Niño signature and generally limits sustained heating demand, though short-term cold snaps like the one arriving mid-week can still give the market a pop.
U.S. LNG exports remain robust and continue to provide a strong demand floor. Feedgas demand has been running near record levels, recently topping 18 to 19 Bcf/d at times, with Europe taking the majority of cargoes as it builds winter stocks. Cooler Gulf Coast temperatures also support higher plant efficiency.
This export strength has helped offset softer domestic heating demand so far this shoulder season. Storage is comfortable with EIA data for the week ended October 30 showing 3,801 Bcf in the Lower 48, about 1.4 percent above the five-year average. Production is running strong near record territory, which continues to cap upside absent a sustained cold pattern.
The mid-week cold shot and model noise are supporting a price bounce off recent lows, but the overarching El Niño signal of a warmer North and wetter South along with healthy supply and LNG balance keep the longer-term bias more cautious. Watch the nor’easter track and whether the polar vortex disruption delivers more than a brief chill. Weather remains the key swing factor into late November.
Make sure you download the Fox Weather app To keep up with the latest market moving weather news also stay tuned to the fox business network because they’re the only network in america that’s invested in you..
Call me to open your account at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Get my insights on the Fox Business Network and follow me on X and Truth Social @energyphilflynn.
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