The last week month has seen some relatively sharp pressure across the grains, with the livestock getting their fair share of liquidation on Friday. The Red October theme I used last week is taken so I can’t replicate the title, but that would have encapsulated the theme. As for this week or the last month even, the market has seemed to get a little bit spooked. What was once a record/near record net long in several grain markets has now been liquidated to a very small long if not short position. The longs were out for Halloween and when they knocked on the USDA’s door, there were no treats, only tricks.. That got the longs spooked and the ended October on a flocking away.
Corn continued to fall this week, as December was down 8 ¼ cents. Monday’s Crop Progress data had the US corn harvest at just 60% complete as of October 25, now lagging average by 6 points. Condition ratings closed the season at 56% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index at 345. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production increasing another 24,000 barrels in the week of 10/23 at 1.118 million barrels per day. Stocks saw a draw of 35,000 barrels in that week 24.523 million barrels. Export Sales data from the week of October 22 showed a total of 1.304 MMT of 2026/27, backing off the from the week prior. Friday’s CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 90,314 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options as of October 27, to 55,943 contracts.
The wheat complex extended the losses across the three exchanges this week, making the bear run for the 9th straight week. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 21 1/2 cents, with KC hard red winter futures falling 20 1/4 cents in the December contract. HRS futures saw a 17 3/4 cent loss for December this week. Pressure was from Russia opening up the Kerch Strait to grain vessels for the first time in 3 months. Reports late in the week that China was sniffing around for US SRW wheat helped to ease the selling, though no sales were announced. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed the winter wheat planting progress at 76% complete as of last Sunday, 1 percentage points behind last year. Export Sales data from the week of October 22 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 846,770 MT, a MY high. CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated managed money in Chicago wheat futures and options adding another 23,725 contracts to their net short position as of Tuesday, holding a net short of 74,859 contracts. As of October 27th, spec funds flipped to a net short of 1,865 contracts, a move of 8,260 contracts on that week.
Soybeans bulls failed to show up this week, down 34 ¼ cents in the November contract. December soybean meal fell $21.50 on the week, with December bean oil slipping 93 points. Early week pressure formed a gap lower on Monday with a surprising result in Brazil’s elections that sent the real down sharply. Crop Progress data tallied 79% of the US soybean harvest complete by 10/25, now 2% ahead of average. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at 2.576 MMT in the week ending on October 22, slightly below the week prior. This week’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting back their net long in soybean futures and options by 21,536 contracts in the week ending last Tuesday to 185.400 contracts.
Cattle were on the downtrend this week led by Friday’s losses, to close with a $10.17 loss in the December contracts. Cash trade was weaker this week, sales backed off to $224-225, with a few at $220. November feeders fell, hit hard by Friday’s weakness, with the contract down $10.35. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $6.17 week/week to $351.26. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker again this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $12.68. Choice boxes were down $1.13/cwt on the week to $364.66, as Select was down 71 cents to $351.98. Weekly beef production was steady this week prior at 487.3 million lbs, which was also 1.8% below the same week last year. Production year to date is now down 4.9% above last year on a 7.1% drop in slaughter. Managed money held a net long position of 56,017 contracts as of Tuesday in live cattle futures and options, an increase of 4,874 contracts. CFTC data showed speculators in feeder cattle futures and options adding 2,909 contracts to their net long position as of October 27th to 13,353 contracts.
Hogs extended their weak streak, with December falling back $6.70 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $4.85 this week at $67.30 as of October 28. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down another $3.99 to $70.10/cwt, the lowest price since December 2020. All primals were all reported lower, with exception to a 27 cent gain in the ham. Weekly pork production was up 0.2% from the week prior at 561.7 million lbs, which was 0.5% above the same week last year. Year to date production is down 0.1% on a 0.9% drop in slaughter. Weekly CFTC data tallied speculators adding 5,976 to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 10/27, taking it to a new record net short of 47,109 contracts.
Cotton fell 237 points in the December contract on the week. Weekly Crop Progress data showed 52% of the US cotton crop harvested, 4 percentage points ahead of normal. Condition ratings tallied at 33% gd/ex in the final rating, with the Brugler500 index at 289. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/22 saw sales build back up to 216,488 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 160,762 RB. The Adjusted World Price was back down 50 points to 64.51 cents/lb on Thursday. Managed money cut back 10,276 contracts from their net long in the week of October 27, taking the position to 56,190 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Export Inspections report will be released on Monday morning, with the weekly Crop Progress report out in the afternoon. NASS will also release their monthly Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils report on Monday, as well as the quarterly Flour Milling Products report. Census trade data will be out on Wednesday, with the weekly EIA report out that morning. Export Sales data will be released on Thursday.
Tech Talk: January Soybeans
January soybeans have been in a downtrend since the middle of September. That leaves a declining regression channel, with support at $12.24 and resistance at $12.65. That upper boundary is near the gap from Monday at $12.63 ½. MACD is bearish, as a rising ADX at 28 says to stick with the downtrend. Stochastics are in low neutral after crossing in oversold. Other support levels come via the 61.8% Fib retracement off the June low at $12.18, with the 38.2% off the LOC low/LOC high at $12.14 ¾. If bulls fail to show up there, the next best level is $12, with a 78.6% at $11.82.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Spooked. Ag Marketing Report 11/02/2026
The last week month has seen some relatively sharp pressure across the grains, with the livestock getting their fair share of liquidation on Friday. The Red October theme I used last week is taken so I can’t replicate the title, but that would have encapsulated the theme. As for this week or the last month even, the market has seemed to get a little bit spooked. What was once a record/near record net long in several grain markets has now been liquidated to a very small long if not short position. The longs were out for Halloween and when they knocked on the USDA’s door, there were no treats, only tricks.. That got the longs spooked and the ended October on a flocking away.
Corn continued to fall this week, as December was down 8 ¼ cents. Monday’s Crop Progress data had the US corn harvest at just 60% complete as of October 25, now lagging average by 6 points. Condition ratings closed the season at 56% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index at 345. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production increasing another 24,000 barrels in the week of 10/23 at 1.118 million barrels per day. Stocks saw a draw of 35,000 barrels in that week 24.523 million barrels. Export Sales data from the week of October 22 showed a total of 1.304 MMT of 2026/27, backing off the from the week prior. Friday’s CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 90,314 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options as of October 27, to 55,943 contracts.
The wheat complex extended the losses across the three exchanges this week, making the bear run for the 9th straight week. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 21 1/2 cents, with KC hard red winter futures falling 20 1/4 cents in the December contract. HRS futures saw a 17 3/4 cent loss for December this week. Pressure was from Russia opening up the Kerch Strait to grain vessels for the first time in 3 months. Reports late in the week that China was sniffing around for US SRW wheat helped to ease the selling, though no sales were announced. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed the winter wheat planting progress at 76% complete as of last Sunday, 1 percentage points behind last year. Export Sales data from the week of October 22 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 846,770 MT, a MY high. CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated managed money in Chicago wheat futures and options adding another 23,725 contracts to their net short position as of Tuesday, holding a net short of 74,859 contracts. As of October 27th, spec funds flipped to a net short of 1,865 contracts, a move of 8,260 contracts on that week.
Soybeans bulls failed to show up this week, down 34 ¼ cents in the November contract. December soybean meal fell $21.50 on the week, with December bean oil slipping 93 points. Early week pressure formed a gap lower on Monday with a surprising result in Brazil’s elections that sent the real down sharply. Crop Progress data tallied 79% of the US soybean harvest complete by 10/25, now 2% ahead of average. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at 2.576 MMT in the week ending on October 22, slightly below the week prior. This week’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting back their net long in soybean futures and options by 21,536 contracts in the week ending last Tuesday to 185.400 contracts.
Cattle were on the downtrend this week led by Friday’s losses, to close with a $10.17 loss in the December contracts. Cash trade was weaker this week, sales backed off to $224-225, with a few at $220. November feeders fell, hit hard by Friday’s weakness, with the contract down $10.35. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $6.17 week/week to $351.26. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker again this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $12.68. Choice boxes were down $1.13/cwt on the week to $364.66, as Select was down 71 cents to $351.98. Weekly beef production was steady this week prior at 487.3 million lbs, which was also 1.8% below the same week last year. Production year to date is now down 4.9% above last year on a 7.1% drop in slaughter. Managed money held a net long position of 56,017 contracts as of Tuesday in live cattle futures and options, an increase of 4,874 contracts. CFTC data showed speculators in feeder cattle futures and options adding 2,909 contracts to their net long position as of October 27th to 13,353 contracts.
Hogs extended their weak streak, with December falling back $6.70 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $4.85 this week at $67.30 as of October 28. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down another $3.99 to $70.10/cwt, the lowest price since December 2020. All primals were all reported lower, with exception to a 27 cent gain in the ham. Weekly pork production was up 0.2% from the week prior at 561.7 million lbs, which was 0.5% above the same week last year. Year to date production is down 0.1% on a 0.9% drop in slaughter. Weekly CFTC data tallied speculators adding 5,976 to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 10/27, taking it to a new record net short of 47,109 contracts.
Cotton fell 237 points in the December contract on the week. Weekly Crop Progress data showed 52% of the US cotton crop harvested, 4 percentage points ahead of normal. Condition ratings tallied at 33% gd/ex in the final rating, with the Brugler500 index at 289. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/22 saw sales build back up to 216,488 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 160,762 RB. The Adjusted World Price was back down 50 points to 64.51 cents/lb on Thursday. Managed money cut back 10,276 contracts from their net long in the week of October 27, taking the position to 56,190 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Export Inspections report will be released on Monday morning, with the weekly Crop Progress report out in the afternoon. NASS will also release their monthly Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils report on Monday, as well as the quarterly Flour Milling Products report. Census trade data will be out on Wednesday, with the weekly EIA report out that morning. Export Sales data will be released on Thursday.
Tech Talk: January Soybeans
January soybeans have been in a downtrend since the middle of September. That leaves a declining regression channel, with support at $12.24 and resistance at $12.65. That upper boundary is near the gap from Monday at $12.63 ½. MACD is bearish, as a rising ADX at 28 says to stick with the downtrend. Stochastics are in low neutral after crossing in oversold. Other support levels come via the 61.8% Fib retracement off the June low at $12.18, with the 38.2% off the LOC low/LOC high at $12.14 ¾. If bulls fail to show up there, the next best level is $12, with a 78.6% at $11.82.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.