About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

DEC CORN

Dec Corn is in the process of carving out harvest lows – with the corn crop 60% in & trading $1.00 lower than Labor Day! The surprise Brazilian Election dropped the Real – its currency – pressuring all CBOT commodities! However demand has been solid -both for Mon Inspections & Thur sales & final yield #’s may be 2-3bpa lower than the USDA has projected! Look for the mkt to consolidate – as its seeks further demand to energize its post-harvest rally!

 

NOV BEANS

President Lula’s surprise victory in Brazil dropped the Real 7% – making Brazilian exports cheaper on the global mkt – & in turn forcing Nov Beans sharply lower in early Mon trade! However, the mkt recovered for a mid-range close & traded higher earlier today! The mkt is sniffing out harvest lows with 79% of the crop in & the mkt $1.00 higher off its Labor Day highs! Flash sales have been plentiful – as China continues buying our beans!  Two more critical elections are ahead – today in Israel for Prime Minister Netanyahu as he seeks re-election & next Tues in the USA for control of Congress! Much like corn, Beans are seeking harvest lows – congesting with the 7 closes within a 10 cent range!

 

DEC WHT

Dec Wht has been pressured by the proposed Russian peace talks – targeted for Mid-Nov, rains in the S/W & the Brazilian election! Winter Wht planting is 76% done! But after a nearly $2.00 break since early Sept, the mkt is extremely oversold & due to crater out- in conjunction with the harvest lows being made in corn & beans! Also, this sizeable break should attract additional foreign demand!

 

DEC CAT

Dec Cat has rallied over $20 since Labor Day off tight cattle supplies, strong cash & solid demand in the grocery store! The latest Cattle-on-Feed issued last Friday at 2pm – validated the slim #’s as placements were 12% under last year – & the lowest # since 1996! The mkt is currently overbought & due for a correction! However, the mkt should grind higher thru year-end off friendly supply/demand fundamentals!

 

DEC HOGS

In sharp contract to Dec Cat, Dec Hogs have broken $10 since early Sept as the mkt has been undermined by a weak fundamental/technical condition! National cash dropped $8.00 last week, last Friday the Cold Storage Report was bearish & the funds are record short! The saving grace is the mkt is near long-term support! It’s a real head-scratcher that cattle & hogs are on such divergent paths – it seems the consumer would eventually opt for the much cheaper pork – especially now with gas/diesel prices thru the roof!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337