There seems to be one thing that sums up the grain markets over the last few weeks, and that is best described by a title from the author Tom Clancy via the book The Hunt for Red October. If you’re not aware (spoiler) it’s based during the Cold War following a Soviet submarine captain that is attempting to defect to the US. The Soviets are attempting to chase the sub, named Red October, while the US is trying to determine its intention. There is a separate hunt for a Rec October going on at the moment, as that comes vis the bears chasing the longs out of the grains. This week was another round of selling, as bulls have yet to find much footing. We’ll have to see if Jack Ryan can come to save the bulls day.
Corn saw some midweek buying but failed to extend that, with a weekly losses of 18 ¼ cents in December. Monday’s Crop Progress data had the US corn harvest at just 44% complete as of October 18, now lagging average by 8 points. Condition ratings were steady at 56% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index 1 point higher to 347. The weekly EIA report indicated ethanol production increasing another 29,000 barrels in the week of 10/16 at 1.094 million barrels per day. Stocks were back up 616,000 barrels in that week 24.558 million barrels. Export Sales data from the week of October 15 showed a total of 1.527 MMT of 2026/27 sales in the week of 10/15, a marketing year high. Friday’s CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 84,620 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options, as of October 20, to 146,257 contracts.
The wheat complex extended the losses across the three exchanges this week. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 35 1/2 cents, with KC hard red winter futures falling 39 1/2 cents in the December contract. HRS futures saw a 35 cent loss for December this week. Pressure was from Russia’s President Putin agreeing to resume peace talks with the US and Ukraine. Grain exports out of the Black Sea have been severely restricted in the last 2 months. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed the winter wheat planting progress at 63% complete as of last Sunday, 6 percentage points behind last year. Export Sales data from the week of October 8 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 239,627 MT, a 6-week low, as buyers have yet to come to the US to supplement lost Black Sea shipments. Commitments of Traders data showed spec funds adding another 18,096 contracts to their net short in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday, to 51,134 contracts. Managed money in KC wheat trimmed back another 10,996 contracts from their net long to 6,395 contracts as of October 20.
Soybeans got some buyers to come in late in the week, December was down just 4 ¾ cents since last Friday. December soybean meal fell $11 on the week, with December bean oil slipping 30 points. Buyers continued their active streak this week, with another 1.323 MMT sold via daily announcements to China and unknown destinations and other 165,000 MT sold to Spain. Crop Progress data tallied 64% of the US soybean harvest complete by 10/18, now 1% behind average. Planting pace in Brazil has thus far ran mostly in line with average, as the crop was reported at 26% in the ground according to AgRural and ahead of the 24% pace from last year. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at 2.841 MMT in the week ending on October 15. This week’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting back their net long in soybean futures and options by 30,555 contracts in the week ending last Tuesday to 206,936 contracts.
Cattle were extending the recent strength, with December up $2.77 on the week. Cash trade was light this week, as the Fed Cattle Exchange online auction reported a $230 live and $355 dressed sale. November feeders saw a $6.22 gain this week, a 1.82% pop. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $1.55 week/week to $345.09. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker again this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $13.10. Choice boxes were down $6.52/cwt on the week to $365.79, as Select was down 36 cents to $352.69. Weekly beef production was back down 1% from the week prior at 487.3 million lbs, which was also 4.2% below the same week last year. Production year to date is now down 5% above last year on a 7.2% drop in slaughter. Friday’s NASS Cold Storage report indicated 400 million lbs of beef stocks at the end of September. That was a 1.25% draw from August and down 0.73% from a year ago. The monthly NASS Cattle on Feed report showed September placements 12.07% from a year ago at 1.777 million head. Marketings were down 6.62% at 1.52 million head. October 1 on feed inventory was 11.372 million, down 0.4% yr/yr. CFTC data indicated managed money trimming 2,395 contracts from their net long position in the week of October 20, taking the position in live cattle to 51,143 contracts. In feeders, speculators were adding 1,592 contracts to a net long of 10,444 contracts.
Hogs resumed their weak streak, with December falling back $1.35 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $2.94 this week at $72.15 as of October 21. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down another $6.46 to $74.09/cwt, the lowest price since December 2020. All primals were all reported lower. Weekly pork production was down 2.6% from the week prior at 561.7 million lbs, which was 0.6% above the same week last year. Year to date production is down 0.1% on a 0.9% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data showed 427.81 million lbs of pork stocks at the end of September, down 0.83% from the end of August, but still 8.77% above the same month last year. Weekly CFTC data tallied managed money as adding back to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 10/20 by 955 contracts, taking the net short to 41,133 contracts.
Cotton managed to see a 20 point gain in the December contract on the back and forth trade. Weekly Crop Progress data showed 41% of the US cotton crop harvested, 4 percentage points ahead of normal. Condition ratings were back up 1 percentage points at 36% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index steady at 292. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/158 saw sales build back up to 199,629 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 195,366 RB. The Adjusted World Price was up another 40 points to 65.01 cents/lb on Thursday. Managed money added to their net long in the week of October 20 by 767 contracts, taking the position to 66,466 contracts net long.
Market Watch
The weekly Export Inspections report kicks next week off on Monday morning, with the weekly Crop Progress report out in the afternoon. The Fed meeting will take place next week with the most looking for the Wednesday decision to hold rates steady. The weekly EIA report will be released on Wednesday, with the Export Sales report out on Thursday. October feeder cattle futures and options expire on Thursday, with live cattle futures expiring on Friday. Friday is also first notice day for November soybeans futures.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn continued the slide lower this week, though Wednesday printed the low. The grind has come in the form of a declining regression channel that has support down a $4.47 ¼ and resistance at $4.68 ½. The lower boundary found buyers on Wednesday, closing in the form of a hammer candlestick. That is a potential bullish reversal indicator, but only if there is upside follow-through. Thursday and Friday failed on that end. The August low at $4.57 ¼ was spiked but held for the most part. Futures also got within a penny of the 78.6% Fib retracement support at $4.52 1/4 on Wednesday. That is the main thing that is keeping the contract from retesting the LOC lows. Stochastics are overbought, but have not crossed for a buy signal. ADX at 39 says that doesn’t matter, as there is a trending market and MACD takes over with its bearish momentum. If bulls can manage show up, resistance is near the 18-day moving average at $4.83.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
A Red October. Ag Marketing Report 10/26/2026
There seems to be one thing that sums up the grain markets over the last few weeks, and that is best described by a title from the author Tom Clancy via the book The Hunt for Red October. If you’re not aware (spoiler) it’s based during the Cold War following a Soviet submarine captain that is attempting to defect to the US. The Soviets are attempting to chase the sub, named Red October, while the US is trying to determine its intention. There is a separate hunt for a Rec October going on at the moment, as that comes vis the bears chasing the longs out of the grains. This week was another round of selling, as bulls have yet to find much footing. We’ll have to see if Jack Ryan can come to save the bulls day.
Corn saw some midweek buying but failed to extend that, with a weekly losses of 18 ¼ cents in December. Monday’s Crop Progress data had the US corn harvest at just 44% complete as of October 18, now lagging average by 8 points. Condition ratings were steady at 56% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index 1 point higher to 347. The weekly EIA report indicated ethanol production increasing another 29,000 barrels in the week of 10/16 at 1.094 million barrels per day. Stocks were back up 616,000 barrels in that week 24.558 million barrels. Export Sales data from the week of October 15 showed a total of 1.527 MMT of 2026/27 sales in the week of 10/15, a marketing year high. Friday’s CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 84,620 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options, as of October 20, to 146,257 contracts.
The wheat complex extended the losses across the three exchanges this week. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 35 1/2 cents, with KC hard red winter futures falling 39 1/2 cents in the December contract. HRS futures saw a 35 cent loss for December this week. Pressure was from Russia’s President Putin agreeing to resume peace talks with the US and Ukraine. Grain exports out of the Black Sea have been severely restricted in the last 2 months. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed the winter wheat planting progress at 63% complete as of last Sunday, 6 percentage points behind last year. Export Sales data from the week of October 8 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 239,627 MT, a 6-week low, as buyers have yet to come to the US to supplement lost Black Sea shipments. Commitments of Traders data showed spec funds adding another 18,096 contracts to their net short in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday, to 51,134 contracts. Managed money in KC wheat trimmed back another 10,996 contracts from their net long to 6,395 contracts as of October 20.
Soybeans got some buyers to come in late in the week, December was down just 4 ¾ cents since last Friday. December soybean meal fell $11 on the week, with December bean oil slipping 30 points. Buyers continued their active streak this week, with another 1.323 MMT sold via daily announcements to China and unknown destinations and other 165,000 MT sold to Spain. Crop Progress data tallied 64% of the US soybean harvest complete by 10/18, now 1% behind average. Planting pace in Brazil has thus far ran mostly in line with average, as the crop was reported at 26% in the ground according to AgRural and ahead of the 24% pace from last year. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at 2.841 MMT in the week ending on October 15. This week’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting back their net long in soybean futures and options by 30,555 contracts in the week ending last Tuesday to 206,936 contracts.
Cattle were extending the recent strength, with December up $2.77 on the week. Cash trade was light this week, as the Fed Cattle Exchange online auction reported a $230 live and $355 dressed sale. November feeders saw a $6.22 gain this week, a 1.82% pop. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $1.55 week/week to $345.09. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker again this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $13.10. Choice boxes were down $6.52/cwt on the week to $365.79, as Select was down 36 cents to $352.69. Weekly beef production was back down 1% from the week prior at 487.3 million lbs, which was also 4.2% below the same week last year. Production year to date is now down 5% above last year on a 7.2% drop in slaughter. Friday’s NASS Cold Storage report indicated 400 million lbs of beef stocks at the end of September. That was a 1.25% draw from August and down 0.73% from a year ago. The monthly NASS Cattle on Feed report showed September placements 12.07% from a year ago at 1.777 million head. Marketings were down 6.62% at 1.52 million head. October 1 on feed inventory was 11.372 million, down 0.4% yr/yr. CFTC data indicated managed money trimming 2,395 contracts from their net long position in the week of October 20, taking the position in live cattle to 51,143 contracts. In feeders, speculators were adding 1,592 contracts to a net long of 10,444 contracts.
Hogs resumed their weak streak, with December falling back $1.35 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $2.94 this week at $72.15 as of October 21. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down another $6.46 to $74.09/cwt, the lowest price since December 2020. All primals were all reported lower. Weekly pork production was down 2.6% from the week prior at 561.7 million lbs, which was 0.6% above the same week last year. Year to date production is down 0.1% on a 0.9% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data showed 427.81 million lbs of pork stocks at the end of September, down 0.83% from the end of August, but still 8.77% above the same month last year. Weekly CFTC data tallied managed money as adding back to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 10/20 by 955 contracts, taking the net short to 41,133 contracts.
Cotton managed to see a 20 point gain in the December contract on the back and forth trade. Weekly Crop Progress data showed 41% of the US cotton crop harvested, 4 percentage points ahead of normal. Condition ratings were back up 1 percentage points at 36% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index steady at 292. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/158 saw sales build back up to 199,629 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 195,366 RB. The Adjusted World Price was up another 40 points to 65.01 cents/lb on Thursday. Managed money added to their net long in the week of October 20 by 767 contracts, taking the position to 66,466 contracts net long.
Market Watch
The weekly Export Inspections report kicks next week off on Monday morning, with the weekly Crop Progress report out in the afternoon. The Fed meeting will take place next week with the most looking for the Wednesday decision to hold rates steady. The weekly EIA report will be released on Wednesday, with the Export Sales report out on Thursday. October feeder cattle futures and options expire on Thursday, with live cattle futures expiring on Friday. Friday is also first notice day for November soybeans futures.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn continued the slide lower this week, though Wednesday printed the low. The grind has come in the form of a declining regression channel that has support down a $4.47 ¼ and resistance at $4.68 ½. The lower boundary found buyers on Wednesday, closing in the form of a hammer candlestick. That is a potential bullish reversal indicator, but only if there is upside follow-through. Thursday and Friday failed on that end. The August low at $4.57 ¼ was spiked but held for the most part. Futures also got within a penny of the 78.6% Fib retracement support at $4.52 1/4 on Wednesday. That is the main thing that is keeping the contract from retesting the LOC lows. Stochastics are overbought, but have not crossed for a buy signal. ADX at 39 says that doesn’t matter, as there is a trending market and MACD takes over with its bearish momentum. If bulls can manage show up, resistance is near the 18-day moving average at $4.83.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.