Well, the streak lives on, and it’s one I just wish would stop. My beloved Cornhuskers have lost their 30 something straight game to ranked teams. The media has gotten their fair share of print and air on the talking point (yes, it’s getting annoying). At some point they’ll get their monkey off the back, but they’re not the only ones on a losing streak. Wheat has been the leader to the downside over the last several weeks, with a 7-week streak of losses. Corn has been right on their heels with 5 of 6 weeks seeing red. Prices are mean reverting, so at one point they’ll turn around. Its just determining where that mean is! As for the Huskers, let’s just hope I can stay awake for a 10:00 pm CDT kickoff this week in Oregon. And of course, what would normally be a ranked match-up, is not, so the streak will live for a couple more weeks. We’ll just have to wait for, (checks schedule) Ohio State…
Corn weakness extended to this week as December was down another 5 ½ cents. The weekly Crop Progress data had the US corn harvest at just 33% complete as of October 11, now lagging average by 6 points. Condition ratings were back up 2% this week at 56% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index 4 points higher to 346. CONAB came out with their initial projection for Brazil’s 2026/27 corn crop this week, tallying the production at 148 MMT, up 2.4% from last year and well above the USDA at 139 MMT. EIA showed ethanol production increasing another 12,000 barrels in the week of 10/9 at 1.065 million barrels per day. Stocks were back up 199,000 barrels in that week 23.942 million barrels. Export Sales data from showed a total of 1.122 MMT of 2026/27 sales in the week of 10/8, a marketing year high. Friday’s CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 86,482 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options, as of October 13, to 230,877 contracts.
The wheat complex fell again across the three exchanges this week. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 10 1/2 cents, with KC hard red winter futures falling 15 1/4 cents in the December contract. HRS futures led the losses, down 18 ¾ cents. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed the winter wheat planting progress at 51% complete as of last Sunday, 7 percentage points behind last year. Export Sales data from the week of October 8 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 319,901 MT, back down from last week’s total, as buyers have yet to come to the US to supplement lost Black Sea shipments. Commitments of Traders data showed spec funds adding 3,495 contracts to their net short in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday, to 33,038 contracts. Managed money in KC wheat trimmed back 6,649 contracts from their net long to 24,040 contracts as of October 13.
Soybeans found some pressure this week with November down 30 ¾ cents. December soybean meal was back down $8.50 on the week, with December bean oil posting a 89 point loss. Buyers were back in action this week, with over 1.877 MMT sold via daily announcements to China and unknown destinations. Bulls didn’t seem to notice. Weekly Crop Progress data tallied 46% of the US soybean harvest complete by 10/11, now 4% behind the average. Crop ratings were steady at 57% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition and Brugler500 index at 350 for the final rating. NOPA data indicated just 196.3 mbu of soybeans crushed in September, down 0.8% from last year and 4.46% below the August total. Brazil’s CONAB estimates the country’s bean crop at 181.6 MMT, a 0.7% increase yr/yr but shy of USDA’s 186 MMT. The 1.43% increase in acreage projected is the smallest expansion since the 2011/12 crop year. Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at just 574,878 MT in the week ending on October 8. This week’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting back their net long in soybean futures and options by 14,169 contracts in the week ending last Tuesday to 237,491 contracts.
Cattle firmed up this week, with December up $1.30. Cash trade was reported at $222-227 in the North and up to $228 in the South this week, strengthening from the week prior. November feeders was just a nickel lower this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $6.47 week/week to $343.54. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $19.26. Choice boxes was down $1.04/cwt on the week to $372.31, as Select was down $1.25 to $353.05. Weekly beef production was back up 3.5% from the week prior at 492.2 million lbs, which was also 3.5% below the same week last year. Production year to date is now down 5.1% above last year on a 7.3% drop in slaughter. CFTC data indicated managed money trimming 2,172 contracts from their net long position in the week of October 13, taking the net long in live cattle to 47,748 contracts. In feeders, speculators were adding 65 contracts to a net long of 8,852 contracts.
Hogs continued their weaker trend, with December falling another 90 cents, despite finding some late week footing. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $3.32 this week at $75.09 as of October 14. Despite hitting a 3-year low, USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up a nickel to $80.55/cwt. The loin, picnic and belly primals were all reported higher. Weekly pork production was down 2.4% from the week prior at 547.3 million lbs, which was 1.8% lower than the same week last year. Year to date production is down 0.1% on a 1% drop in slaughter. Weekly CFTC data tallied managed money as adding back to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 10/13 by 8,914 contracts, taking the net short to 42,088 contracts.
Cotton slipped back in the December contract this week down 54 points. Crop Progress data showed 31% of the US cotton crop harvested, 2 percentage points ahead of normal. Condition ratings were back up 2 percentage points at 35% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index up 2 points to 292. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/8 saw sales slip to 146,892 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 140,561 RB. The Adjusted World Price was up 80 points to 64.61 cents/lb on Thursday. Managed money added back to their net long in the week of October 13 by 1,862 contracts, taking the position to 65,699 contracts net long.
Market Watch
We start next week with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, as the weekly Crop Progress report in the afternoon. The weekly EIA report will be released on Wednesday, with the Export Sales report out on Thursday. Friday rounds things out with the monthly Cattle on Feed report, as well as the expiration of November grain/soy complex options.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
The selling spilled over the beans this week. November saw losses each of the 5 sessions. That came as Monday failed support at the 40-day moving average support at $12.94. Tuesday followed that up with an outside day lower. Wednesday broke below the 2/3 speedline off the August low. Thursday failed to hold a retest of the 38.2% Fib retracement support at $12.70 ¼. That leaves us with Friday, which despite fading early, found some buying of the low into the close. That low tested the July high of $12.56 ½, a form of old lateral resistance is now support. Beyond that, support comes via the 50% Fib retracement at $12.50 ¼, with the 61.8% at $12.30. ADX at 17 says to shy away from the bearish MACD and look towards stochastics which are in neural and shifting back to bearish. A declining regression channel has formed, with the lower boundary support at $12.53 and resistance at $13.02.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Stop the Streak. Ag Marketing Report 10/19/2026
Well, the streak lives on, and it’s one I just wish would stop. My beloved Cornhuskers have lost their 30 something straight game to ranked teams. The media has gotten their fair share of print and air on the talking point (yes, it’s getting annoying). At some point they’ll get their monkey off the back, but they’re not the only ones on a losing streak. Wheat has been the leader to the downside over the last several weeks, with a 7-week streak of losses. Corn has been right on their heels with 5 of 6 weeks seeing red. Prices are mean reverting, so at one point they’ll turn around. Its just determining where that mean is! As for the Huskers, let’s just hope I can stay awake for a 10:00 pm CDT kickoff this week in Oregon. And of course, what would normally be a ranked match-up, is not, so the streak will live for a couple more weeks. We’ll just have to wait for, (checks schedule) Ohio State…
Corn weakness extended to this week as December was down another 5 ½ cents. The weekly Crop Progress data had the US corn harvest at just 33% complete as of October 11, now lagging average by 6 points. Condition ratings were back up 2% this week at 56% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index 4 points higher to 346. CONAB came out with their initial projection for Brazil’s 2026/27 corn crop this week, tallying the production at 148 MMT, up 2.4% from last year and well above the USDA at 139 MMT. EIA showed ethanol production increasing another 12,000 barrels in the week of 10/9 at 1.065 million barrels per day. Stocks were back up 199,000 barrels in that week 23.942 million barrels. Export Sales data from showed a total of 1.122 MMT of 2026/27 sales in the week of 10/8, a marketing year high. Friday’s CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 86,482 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options, as of October 13, to 230,877 contracts.
The wheat complex fell again across the three exchanges this week. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 10 1/2 cents, with KC hard red winter futures falling 15 1/4 cents in the December contract. HRS futures led the losses, down 18 ¾ cents. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed the winter wheat planting progress at 51% complete as of last Sunday, 7 percentage points behind last year. Export Sales data from the week of October 8 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 319,901 MT, back down from last week’s total, as buyers have yet to come to the US to supplement lost Black Sea shipments. Commitments of Traders data showed spec funds adding 3,495 contracts to their net short in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday, to 33,038 contracts. Managed money in KC wheat trimmed back 6,649 contracts from their net long to 24,040 contracts as of October 13.
Soybeans found some pressure this week with November down 30 ¾ cents. December soybean meal was back down $8.50 on the week, with December bean oil posting a 89 point loss. Buyers were back in action this week, with over 1.877 MMT sold via daily announcements to China and unknown destinations. Bulls didn’t seem to notice. Weekly Crop Progress data tallied 46% of the US soybean harvest complete by 10/11, now 4% behind the average. Crop ratings were steady at 57% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition and Brugler500 index at 350 for the final rating. NOPA data indicated just 196.3 mbu of soybeans crushed in September, down 0.8% from last year and 4.46% below the August total. Brazil’s CONAB estimates the country’s bean crop at 181.6 MMT, a 0.7% increase yr/yr but shy of USDA’s 186 MMT. The 1.43% increase in acreage projected is the smallest expansion since the 2011/12 crop year. Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at just 574,878 MT in the week ending on October 8. This week’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting back their net long in soybean futures and options by 14,169 contracts in the week ending last Tuesday to 237,491 contracts.
Cattle firmed up this week, with December up $1.30. Cash trade was reported at $222-227 in the North and up to $228 in the South this week, strengthening from the week prior. November feeders was just a nickel lower this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $6.47 week/week to $343.54. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $19.26. Choice boxes was down $1.04/cwt on the week to $372.31, as Select was down $1.25 to $353.05. Weekly beef production was back up 3.5% from the week prior at 492.2 million lbs, which was also 3.5% below the same week last year. Production year to date is now down 5.1% above last year on a 7.3% drop in slaughter. CFTC data indicated managed money trimming 2,172 contracts from their net long position in the week of October 13, taking the net long in live cattle to 47,748 contracts. In feeders, speculators were adding 65 contracts to a net long of 8,852 contracts.
Hogs continued their weaker trend, with December falling another 90 cents, despite finding some late week footing. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $3.32 this week at $75.09 as of October 14. Despite hitting a 3-year low, USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up a nickel to $80.55/cwt. The loin, picnic and belly primals were all reported higher. Weekly pork production was down 2.4% from the week prior at 547.3 million lbs, which was 1.8% lower than the same week last year. Year to date production is down 0.1% on a 1% drop in slaughter. Weekly CFTC data tallied managed money as adding back to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 10/13 by 8,914 contracts, taking the net short to 42,088 contracts.
Cotton slipped back in the December contract this week down 54 points. Crop Progress data showed 31% of the US cotton crop harvested, 2 percentage points ahead of normal. Condition ratings were back up 2 percentage points at 35% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index up 2 points to 292. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/8 saw sales slip to 146,892 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 140,561 RB. The Adjusted World Price was up 80 points to 64.61 cents/lb on Thursday. Managed money added back to their net long in the week of October 13 by 1,862 contracts, taking the position to 65,699 contracts net long.
Market Watch
We start next week with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, as the weekly Crop Progress report in the afternoon. The weekly EIA report will be released on Wednesday, with the Export Sales report out on Thursday. Friday rounds things out with the monthly Cattle on Feed report, as well as the expiration of November grain/soy complex options.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
The selling spilled over the beans this week. November saw losses each of the 5 sessions. That came as Monday failed support at the 40-day moving average support at $12.94. Tuesday followed that up with an outside day lower. Wednesday broke below the 2/3 speedline off the August low. Thursday failed to hold a retest of the 38.2% Fib retracement support at $12.70 ¼. That leaves us with Friday, which despite fading early, found some buying of the low into the close. That low tested the July high of $12.56 ½, a form of old lateral resistance is now support. Beyond that, support comes via the 50% Fib retracement at $12.50 ¼, with the 61.8% at $12.30. ADX at 17 says to shy away from the bearish MACD and look towards stochastics which are in neural and shifting back to bearish. A declining regression channel has formed, with the lower boundary support at $12.53 and resistance at $13.02.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.