This last week there was an AI derived video floating around where a bear purportedly charged up on a momma bison and her calf. As you would expect, the bear went after the calf before the cow charge after the bear using her motherly instinct and threw the predator a solid 10 feet, sending him with this tail tucked. It should have been a sign for how Friday’s trade would turn out. After corn was down nearly as 14 cents early with falling 20 cents to the low to round out the week, momma bull (oxymoron, I know) showed up to defend her baby from the big bad bear. We’ll see how much fight she has left in her once we get those supposed US/China trade details on Monday. But the point remains, Don’t mess with the momma bull in these grains.
Corn bulls had the battle of the year this week, as December held up for a ¾ of a cent gain. The weekly Crop Progress data showed 58% of the US corn crop mature by 9/20 and harvest at 13% complete. Condition ratings were up 1% this week at 57% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index steady at 347. EIA showed ethanol production dropping 71,000 in the week of 9/11 at 1.028 million barrels per day. Stocks were back down 537,000 barrels in that week 25.683 million barrels. Export Sales data from showed a total of 838,328 MT of 2026/27 sales in the week of 9/17. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money trimming back 12,405 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options. As of September 22, their net long position was 414,437 contracts
The wheat complex bulls weren’t as lucky this week as all three exchanges fell lower. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 11 cents, with KC hard red winter futures slipping 21 ¾ cents in December contract. HRS futures were down 27 ¾ cents Friday/Friday to lead the bears. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed 96% of the US spring wheat crop was harvested as of September 20. Winter wheat was 17% planted as of last Sunday. Export Sales data from the week of September 17 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 267,553 MT. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money adding back their net short by 8,438 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of September 22, to 13,144 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat cutting back from their net long by 4,015 contracts, at 41,743 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans saw positive price movement this week with November ending for a 15 ½ cent gain. October soybean meal was $19.30 in the green on the week, with October bean oil posting a 44 point loss. Buyers were quieter this week, with just 120,000 MT sold via daily announcements to China. The two countries leaders met in DC over the week, though details on the meeting will be out on Monday. Monday’s Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 62% dropping leaves by September 20, with harvest at 12% finished. Crop ratings were steady at 58% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition and Brugler500 index slipping 1 to 351. Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at just 582,432 MT in the week ending on September 17. CFTC data from Friday showed managed money adding back to their previous record net long in soybean futures and options by 20,331 contracts in the week of 9/22 to 265,041 contracts.
Cattle found some strength following last week’s Friendly Cattle on Feed report, gapping higher and holding October was up $2.95 for the week. Cash trade was slow this week, holding at $222-223 on the week. October feeder cattle gapped higher and didn’t look back, up $11.425 for the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $3.71 week/week to $338.79. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widening to $23.07. Choice boxes was up $6.89/cwt on the week to $378.83, as Select was up $2.50 to $355.76. Weekly beef production was back down 8.4% from the week prior at 430.1 million lbs, which was also down 12.5% from last year as ICE raids in KS slowed slaughter this week. Production year to date is now down 5.3% above last year on a 7.7% drop in slaughter. Cold storage data from this week showed August 31 beef stocks at 407.12 million lbs, a 5.16% increase from a year ago and 2.22% above the end of July. CFTC data showed managed money adding back 1,721 contracts to their net long position in the week of 9/22, taking the net long in live cattle to 46,983 contracts.
Hogs were firmer this week, with October up 12 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $2.82 this week at $82.20 as of September 23. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continued to face pressure this week but held firmer with a 24 cent loss for the week at $86.74/cwt. The belly was the only primal reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 3% from the week prior at 542.9 million lbs, which was up 0.1% from the same week last year. Year to date production is down 0.1% on a 1% drop in slaughter. The monthly Cold Storage report indicated pork stocks at the end of August at 436.27 million lbs, a 12.03% increase from a year ago and 0.81% below last month. Hogs & Pigs data showed September 1 inventory of all hogs down 1.51% from a year ago at 74.302 million head. Market hogs were down 1.55% to 68.427 million head, with breeding inventory numbers down 1.03%. Farrowings during June to August dropped 2.66%, with intentions for September to November down 1.79%. CFTC data showed managed money taking their net short position in lean hog futures and options to a record in the week of 9/22, an increase of 4,147 contracts, taking the net short to 35,548 contracts.
Cotton firmed earlier in the week as Friday weakness parred back the weekly gains to just 156 points. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 65% of the US cotton with bolls opening as of Sunday, as the crop was 13% harvested. Condition ratings were down 2 percentage points at 34% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 1 to 295. USDA’s Cotton Ginnings report showed 429,250 RB of cotton ginned by September 15. That is an 8% decline from a year ago. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 9/17 saw sales improve to 230,517 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 164,704 RB. The Adjusted World Price was down 283 points to 66.09 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders trimmed back their net long in the week of September 22 by 16,293 contracts, taking the position to 81,610 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Monday morning Export Inspections, as NASS will release the weekly Crop Progress report in the afternoon. The EIA report will be released on Wednesday morning. Wednesday is also the quarterly Grain Stocks and annual Small Grains Summary reports from NASS. First notice day for October soybean meal and oil is on Wednesday. Thursday will see the Export Sales report in the morning, with Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils report out that afternoon. October live cattle options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn closed Friday a lot better than it finished if you’re a bull. The chart closed for a hammer candlestick, a potential bullish reversal indicator, that is if we get the upside follow through on Monday. Friday also ended up holding at the uptrend off the bull pennant formation after a rejected overnight break. Bulls kept the pennant intact by their grit of their teeth closing at $5.28 1/4, ¼ cent above the line. That could also be a bull flag formation (noted by the gray downtrend line), with buyers showing up on the low. The initial downside objective on December corn is the gap at $5.09, with futures getting within 6 cents on the low. MACD still has the bearish momentum, suggesting that this 4th wave may last a little longer, with the 38.2% Fib retracement off the June low at $5.02 ¼. That is if we don’t get any upside follow through next week. The trade details from the US/China meeting on Thursday, will be announced on Monday, so that may play a role, as well as the Grain Stocks report on Wednesday. If we do get a wave 5 the head and shoulders pattern has a count at $5.60, which would be the initial objective.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Don’t Mess with Momma Bull. Ag Marketing Report 09/28/2026
This last week there was an AI derived video floating around where a bear purportedly charged up on a momma bison and her calf. As you would expect, the bear went after the calf before the cow charge after the bear using her motherly instinct and threw the predator a solid 10 feet, sending him with this tail tucked. It should have been a sign for how Friday’s trade would turn out. After corn was down nearly as 14 cents early with falling 20 cents to the low to round out the week, momma bull (oxymoron, I know) showed up to defend her baby from the big bad bear. We’ll see how much fight she has left in her once we get those supposed US/China trade details on Monday. But the point remains, Don’t mess with the momma bull in these grains.
Corn bulls had the battle of the year this week, as December held up for a ¾ of a cent gain. The weekly Crop Progress data showed 58% of the US corn crop mature by 9/20 and harvest at 13% complete. Condition ratings were up 1% this week at 57% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index steady at 347. EIA showed ethanol production dropping 71,000 in the week of 9/11 at 1.028 million barrels per day. Stocks were back down 537,000 barrels in that week 25.683 million barrels. Export Sales data from showed a total of 838,328 MT of 2026/27 sales in the week of 9/17. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money trimming back 12,405 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options. As of September 22, their net long position was 414,437 contracts
The wheat complex bulls weren’t as lucky this week as all three exchanges fell lower. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 11 cents, with KC hard red winter futures slipping 21 ¾ cents in December contract. HRS futures were down 27 ¾ cents Friday/Friday to lead the bears. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed 96% of the US spring wheat crop was harvested as of September 20. Winter wheat was 17% planted as of last Sunday. Export Sales data from the week of September 17 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 267,553 MT. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money adding back their net short by 8,438 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of September 22, to 13,144 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat cutting back from their net long by 4,015 contracts, at 41,743 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans saw positive price movement this week with November ending for a 15 ½ cent gain. October soybean meal was $19.30 in the green on the week, with October bean oil posting a 44 point loss. Buyers were quieter this week, with just 120,000 MT sold via daily announcements to China. The two countries leaders met in DC over the week, though details on the meeting will be out on Monday. Monday’s Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 62% dropping leaves by September 20, with harvest at 12% finished. Crop ratings were steady at 58% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition and Brugler500 index slipping 1 to 351. Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at just 582,432 MT in the week ending on September 17. CFTC data from Friday showed managed money adding back to their previous record net long in soybean futures and options by 20,331 contracts in the week of 9/22 to 265,041 contracts.
Cattle found some strength following last week’s Friendly Cattle on Feed report, gapping higher and holding October was up $2.95 for the week. Cash trade was slow this week, holding at $222-223 on the week. October feeder cattle gapped higher and didn’t look back, up $11.425 for the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $3.71 week/week to $338.79. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widening to $23.07. Choice boxes was up $6.89/cwt on the week to $378.83, as Select was up $2.50 to $355.76. Weekly beef production was back down 8.4% from the week prior at 430.1 million lbs, which was also down 12.5% from last year as ICE raids in KS slowed slaughter this week. Production year to date is now down 5.3% above last year on a 7.7% drop in slaughter. Cold storage data from this week showed August 31 beef stocks at 407.12 million lbs, a 5.16% increase from a year ago and 2.22% above the end of July. CFTC data showed managed money adding back 1,721 contracts to their net long position in the week of 9/22, taking the net long in live cattle to 46,983 contracts.
Hogs were firmer this week, with October up 12 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $2.82 this week at $82.20 as of September 23. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continued to face pressure this week but held firmer with a 24 cent loss for the week at $86.74/cwt. The belly was the only primal reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 3% from the week prior at 542.9 million lbs, which was up 0.1% from the same week last year. Year to date production is down 0.1% on a 1% drop in slaughter. The monthly Cold Storage report indicated pork stocks at the end of August at 436.27 million lbs, a 12.03% increase from a year ago and 0.81% below last month. Hogs & Pigs data showed September 1 inventory of all hogs down 1.51% from a year ago at 74.302 million head. Market hogs were down 1.55% to 68.427 million head, with breeding inventory numbers down 1.03%. Farrowings during June to August dropped 2.66%, with intentions for September to November down 1.79%. CFTC data showed managed money taking their net short position in lean hog futures and options to a record in the week of 9/22, an increase of 4,147 contracts, taking the net short to 35,548 contracts.
Cotton firmed earlier in the week as Friday weakness parred back the weekly gains to just 156 points. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 65% of the US cotton with bolls opening as of Sunday, as the crop was 13% harvested. Condition ratings were down 2 percentage points at 34% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 1 to 295. USDA’s Cotton Ginnings report showed 429,250 RB of cotton ginned by September 15. That is an 8% decline from a year ago. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 9/17 saw sales improve to 230,517 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 164,704 RB. The Adjusted World Price was down 283 points to 66.09 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders trimmed back their net long in the week of September 22 by 16,293 contracts, taking the position to 81,610 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Monday morning Export Inspections, as NASS will release the weekly Crop Progress report in the afternoon. The EIA report will be released on Wednesday morning. Wednesday is also the quarterly Grain Stocks and annual Small Grains Summary reports from NASS. First notice day for October soybean meal and oil is on Wednesday. Thursday will see the Export Sales report in the morning, with Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils report out that afternoon. October live cattle options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn closed Friday a lot better than it finished if you’re a bull. The chart closed for a hammer candlestick, a potential bullish reversal indicator, that is if we get the upside follow through on Monday. Friday also ended up holding at the uptrend off the bull pennant formation after a rejected overnight break. Bulls kept the pennant intact by their grit of their teeth closing at $5.28 1/4, ¼ cent above the line. That could also be a bull flag formation (noted by the gray downtrend line), with buyers showing up on the low. The initial downside objective on December corn is the gap at $5.09, with futures getting within 6 cents on the low. MACD still has the bearish momentum, suggesting that this 4th wave may last a little longer, with the 38.2% Fib retracement off the June low at $5.02 ¼. That is if we don’t get any upside follow through next week. The trade details from the US/China meeting on Thursday, will be announced on Monday, so that may play a role, as well as the Grain Stocks report on Wednesday. If we do get a wave 5 the head and shoulders pattern has a count at $5.60, which would be the initial objective.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.