About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on follow through chart based selling and on the FED raising interest ratres to fight inflation. The weekly export sales report was bad. Trends in the Dollar Indes are starting to turn up and trends in Cotton are starting to turn down. USDA cut yield and harvested area for production of 13.2 billion bales. Domestic demand was trimmed but exports were unchanged and ending stocks were estimated at 369 million bales from 400 million last month. Stressful weather conditions continue. USDA this week showed that conditions are now 36% good to excellent. Progress is above average with the crop now 8% harvested. Forecasts and reports of scattered to isolated showers in Cotton areas continue for the Delts, and the Southeast. Temperatures will be warm to hot in all areas.
Overnight News
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 82.00, 80.40, and 79.20 December, with resistance of 85.30, 85.60 and 86.70 December

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were lower again yesterday in range based trading. Prices are now in the lower end of the recent trading range. USDA on Friday showed US oranges production at 58.250 million boxes and Florida production at 12.200 million boxes. Showers are showing up in Florida and trees are recovering. The weather for the next crop is seasonal. The weather is considered good for production in Mexico and showers are developing in Brazil.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries fort the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 128.00, 125.00, and 122.00 September, with resistance at 159,00 167.00, and 174.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both lower again yesterday as the FED raised interest rates to fight inflation and as Brail crops are looking better with good weather. Trends are down in New York and are mixed to down in London. Brazil coffee is being offered now in increasing quantities as harvest is almost over despite increased rains. The next crop is developing in the rest of South America amid scattered to isolated showers. Indonesia is now about done with its harvest. Asian conditions are called good. Other world production conditions are generally good. Mexico is in good condition, but Central America has been dry
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 256.69 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 19 notices was posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 263 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 270.00, 264.00, and 257.00 December, and resistance is at 292.00, 300.00 and 309.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3200, 3140, and 3080 November, with resistance at 3610, 3690, and 3770 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower again yesterday. Trends are turning down on the daily charts in both markets. Drought in Europe and Brail are a major concern but seems to be easing now with the crop mostly made in Europe. The hot and dry weather was causing losses in Sugar beets production. There have been some rains in center-south Brazil causing some harvest delays. Indian production is less after hot and dry conditions and production in the rest of Asia could be hurt by El Nino weather. Higher world petroleum prices are supporting higher ethanol prices and could cause less Sugar to be produced.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1750, 1720, and 1700 March and resistance is 1930, 1960, and 2020 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 506.00, 499.00, and 476.00 December, with resistance at 531.00, 544.00, and 554.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower again yesterday. Daily and weekly trends are turning down. A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year but demand has started to increase.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 5600, 5500, and 5260 December, with resistance at 6200, 6320, and 655S0 December. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 4120, 4040, and 3820 December, with resistance at 4510, 4620, and 4690 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322