There is the old saying in the markets of buy the rumor, sell the fact, or vice versa. The concept behind that is traders open their wallet before they open their mouth. Thus, when the fact becomes known, whether it’s an export announcement, EPA policy change, or USDA estimate change, the market has most of the factor worked in. And just like that, the rug gets pulled and those buying the fact are left holding the bag, as those who bought the rumor are taking profits. We saw some of the on Friday, as the USDA cut 236 mbu from the 2026/27 supply side of the corn balance sheet and prices were still weaker. Beans got a 10 mbu stocks cut and were still down 35 cents.
Corn faced some pressure this week, as December corrected lower with a 6 ½ cent loss from last Friday. The monthly Crop Production report showed US corn yield down 2.2 bpa to 178.5 bpa, with production down 213 mbu from August at 15.8 bbu. WASDE data pegged old crop ending stocks down 23 mbu to 1.922 bbu, with new crop carryout cut by 86 mbu to 1.567 bbu. Tuesday’s Crop Progress data showed 76% of the US corn crop dented by August 30, with 25% listed at mature and harvest 5% complete. Condition ratings slipped 1% this week at 56% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index steady at 347. EIA showed ethanol production slipping 11,000 barrels per day in the week 9/4 to 1.099 million bpd. Stocks were back down 152,000 barrels in that week 25.187 million barrels. Export Sales data from showed a total of 79,788 MT of 2025/26 sales in the week of 9/3 to round out the marketing year. Sales for new crop in the week ending on September 3 were tallied at 1.929 MMT, with 993,349 MT in unshipped sales carried over from 2025/26. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders trimming back from their previous record net long position in corn futures and options by 5,891 contracts as of 9/8 to 425,171 contracts.
The wheat complex was mostly weaker this week, though things did calm down. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 8 3/4 cents, with KC hard red winter futures slipping 3 ¾ cents in December contract. HRS futures were steady Frida/Friday. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed 86% of the US spring wheat crop was harvested as of September 6. Winter wheat was 2% planted as of last Sunday. USDA left the balance sheet for the US along on Friday, with world stocks up 3.04 MMT to 276.29 MMT. Export Sales data from the week of September 3 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at just 194,233 MT. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money trimming back their new net long by 10,392 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of September 8, to 4,262 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat added to their net long by 964 contracts, at 51,248 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans slipped back this week with late week pressure, as November was down 13 ¼ cents. October soybean meal was $1.40 in the red on the week, with October bean oil posting a 30 point gain. Buyers continued make their presence known this week, with another 918,000 MT sold via daily announcements to China and unknown buyers. USDA’s monthly Crop Production report showed soybean yield at 52.8 bpa, up 0.1 bpa from August. Production was 16 mbu higher to 4.535 bbu. Old crop US stocks were unchanged this month at 325 mbu, with the carryout for 2026/27 soybeans cut by 10 mbu to 310 mbu. The weekly Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 26% dropping leaves by September 6. Crop ratings were steady at 58% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition and Brugler500 index unchanged at 353. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean cancellations at 175,309 MT in the week ending on September 3. New crop sales were seen at 2.637 MMT, as 672,381 MT were rolled over from unshipped 2025/26 sales. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds adding another 24,848 contracts to their net long as of September 8, taking it to a record net long of 266,031 contracts of futures and options.
Cattle found some strength this week as cash firmed, with October up $6.72 on the week. Cash trade was up $2-6 in the week with sales ranging from $224-225. September feeder cattle were up another $13.00 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $2.42 week/week to $331.22. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened back out to $22.81. Choice boxes slipped just 23 cents/cwt on the week to $375.94, as Select fell $2.74 to $353.13. Weekly beef production was down 3.8% from the week prior at 448 million lbs. Year to date production is down 5.2% on an 7.6% drop in slaughter. Weekly Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds trimming 664 contracts from their net long as of September 8, taking it to 47,250 contracts of futures and options in live cattle. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money cut 727 contracts to a net long of just 6,781 contracts.
Hogs slipped back 77 cents this week in the October contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $2.86 this week at $88.22 as of September 9. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continued to face pressure this week with a $3.06 loss for the week at $89.80/cwt. The ham was the only primal reported higher, with the belly falling $23.40. Weekly pork production was down 0.7% from the week prior at 481.6 million lbs. Production year to date is up 0.1% above last year on a 1% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money trimming back their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 9/8 by 4,767 contracts, taking the net short to 23,556 contracts.
Cotton futures was back and forth this week, but ended on the lower side for the December contracts, down 27 points. USDA’s Crop Production report showed yield down 22 lbs to 776 lbs/acre, as production was cut by 410,000 bales to 13.2 million bales. Monthly WASDE data showed old crop US cotton stocks trimmed 50,000 bales to 4.15 million bales. New crop carryout was down 400,000 bales to 3.6 million bales due to the production changes and carryover. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 40% of the US cotton with bolls opening as of Sunday, as the crop was 7% harvested. Condition ratings were back up 5 percentage points at 34% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index slipping 6 points to 298. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 9/3 saw sales of just 73,854 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 177,774 RB. The Adjusted World Price was down 441 points to 69.51 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders trimmed back their net long in the week of September 8 but 7,806 contracts, taking the position to 100,170 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Next week will be back with all 5 business days, as Monday kicks things off with weekly Export Inspections in the morning with the NASS Crop Progress report out that the afternoon. September futures expire on Monday. Tuesday will see the NOPA crush report, with weekly EIA data released on Wednesday morning. The Fed will be out with their September rate decision on Wednesday. Friday rounds out the week with the monthly cattle on feed.
Tech Talk: December Corn
The last time we talked over December corn, we were still trying to find the end of the 3rd wave of the Ellion pattern. It appears we found it, a tick shy of $5.50. If this is wave 4, where are we headed? There are a couple spots to look for. First the most obvious is the chart gap at $5.09. Gaps are meant to be filled after all. If the bulls are a little more aggressive, the 18-day moving average at $5.26 ¼, which held on Friday is the spot. Stochastics say there is room to run, still not in oversold, as MACD just flipped to bearish (on a high ADX) on Wednesday. That suggests the gap theory, with the 38.2% Fib retracement support at $5.02 ¼. The head and shoulders bottom is still active at $5.60.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Selling Rallies and Facts. Ag Marketing Report 09/14/2026
There is the old saying in the markets of buy the rumor, sell the fact, or vice versa. The concept behind that is traders open their wallet before they open their mouth. Thus, when the fact becomes known, whether it’s an export announcement, EPA policy change, or USDA estimate change, the market has most of the factor worked in. And just like that, the rug gets pulled and those buying the fact are left holding the bag, as those who bought the rumor are taking profits. We saw some of the on Friday, as the USDA cut 236 mbu from the 2026/27 supply side of the corn balance sheet and prices were still weaker. Beans got a 10 mbu stocks cut and were still down 35 cents.
Corn faced some pressure this week, as December corrected lower with a 6 ½ cent loss from last Friday. The monthly Crop Production report showed US corn yield down 2.2 bpa to 178.5 bpa, with production down 213 mbu from August at 15.8 bbu. WASDE data pegged old crop ending stocks down 23 mbu to 1.922 bbu, with new crop carryout cut by 86 mbu to 1.567 bbu. Tuesday’s Crop Progress data showed 76% of the US corn crop dented by August 30, with 25% listed at mature and harvest 5% complete. Condition ratings slipped 1% this week at 56% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index steady at 347. EIA showed ethanol production slipping 11,000 barrels per day in the week 9/4 to 1.099 million bpd. Stocks were back down 152,000 barrels in that week 25.187 million barrels. Export Sales data from showed a total of 79,788 MT of 2025/26 sales in the week of 9/3 to round out the marketing year. Sales for new crop in the week ending on September 3 were tallied at 1.929 MMT, with 993,349 MT in unshipped sales carried over from 2025/26. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders trimming back from their previous record net long position in corn futures and options by 5,891 contracts as of 9/8 to 425,171 contracts.
The wheat complex was mostly weaker this week, though things did calm down. CBT soft red winter futures were down another 8 3/4 cents, with KC hard red winter futures slipping 3 ¾ cents in December contract. HRS futures were steady Frida/Friday. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed 86% of the US spring wheat crop was harvested as of September 6. Winter wheat was 2% planted as of last Sunday. USDA left the balance sheet for the US along on Friday, with world stocks up 3.04 MMT to 276.29 MMT. Export Sales data from the week of September 3 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at just 194,233 MT. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money trimming back their new net long by 10,392 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of September 8, to 4,262 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat added to their net long by 964 contracts, at 51,248 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans slipped back this week with late week pressure, as November was down 13 ¼ cents. October soybean meal was $1.40 in the red on the week, with October bean oil posting a 30 point gain. Buyers continued make their presence known this week, with another 918,000 MT sold via daily announcements to China and unknown buyers. USDA’s monthly Crop Production report showed soybean yield at 52.8 bpa, up 0.1 bpa from August. Production was 16 mbu higher to 4.535 bbu. Old crop US stocks were unchanged this month at 325 mbu, with the carryout for 2026/27 soybeans cut by 10 mbu to 310 mbu. The weekly Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 26% dropping leaves by September 6. Crop ratings were steady at 58% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition and Brugler500 index unchanged at 353. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean cancellations at 175,309 MT in the week ending on September 3. New crop sales were seen at 2.637 MMT, as 672,381 MT were rolled over from unshipped 2025/26 sales. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds adding another 24,848 contracts to their net long as of September 8, taking it to a record net long of 266,031 contracts of futures and options.
Cattle found some strength this week as cash firmed, with October up $6.72 on the week. Cash trade was up $2-6 in the week with sales ranging from $224-225. September feeder cattle were up another $13.00 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $2.42 week/week to $331.22. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened back out to $22.81. Choice boxes slipped just 23 cents/cwt on the week to $375.94, as Select fell $2.74 to $353.13. Weekly beef production was down 3.8% from the week prior at 448 million lbs. Year to date production is down 5.2% on an 7.6% drop in slaughter. Weekly Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds trimming 664 contracts from their net long as of September 8, taking it to 47,250 contracts of futures and options in live cattle. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money cut 727 contracts to a net long of just 6,781 contracts.
Hogs slipped back 77 cents this week in the October contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $2.86 this week at $88.22 as of September 9. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continued to face pressure this week with a $3.06 loss for the week at $89.80/cwt. The ham was the only primal reported higher, with the belly falling $23.40. Weekly pork production was down 0.7% from the week prior at 481.6 million lbs. Production year to date is up 0.1% above last year on a 1% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money trimming back their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 9/8 by 4,767 contracts, taking the net short to 23,556 contracts.
Cotton futures was back and forth this week, but ended on the lower side for the December contracts, down 27 points. USDA’s Crop Production report showed yield down 22 lbs to 776 lbs/acre, as production was cut by 410,000 bales to 13.2 million bales. Monthly WASDE data showed old crop US cotton stocks trimmed 50,000 bales to 4.15 million bales. New crop carryout was down 400,000 bales to 3.6 million bales due to the production changes and carryover. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 40% of the US cotton with bolls opening as of Sunday, as the crop was 7% harvested. Condition ratings were back up 5 percentage points at 34% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index slipping 6 points to 298. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 9/3 saw sales of just 73,854 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 177,774 RB. The Adjusted World Price was down 441 points to 69.51 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders trimmed back their net long in the week of September 8 but 7,806 contracts, taking the position to 100,170 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Next week will be back with all 5 business days, as Monday kicks things off with weekly Export Inspections in the morning with the NASS Crop Progress report out that the afternoon. September futures expire on Monday. Tuesday will see the NOPA crush report, with weekly EIA data released on Wednesday morning. The Fed will be out with their September rate decision on Wednesday. Friday rounds out the week with the monthly cattle on feed.
Tech Talk: December Corn
The last time we talked over December corn, we were still trying to find the end of the 3rd wave of the Ellion pattern. It appears we found it, a tick shy of $5.50. If this is wave 4, where are we headed? There are a couple spots to look for. First the most obvious is the chart gap at $5.09. Gaps are meant to be filled after all. If the bulls are a little more aggressive, the 18-day moving average at $5.26 ¼, which held on Friday is the spot. Stochastics say there is room to run, still not in oversold, as MACD just flipped to bearish (on a high ADX) on Wednesday. That suggests the gap theory, with the 38.2% Fib retracement support at $5.02 ¼. The head and shoulders bottom is still active at $5.60.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.