The last couple weeks we have focused on a hotter grain market. A quick look at the price table below shows that things took a little bit of a cool off period this week. While the temperatures across the US did not necessarily cool down too much, we had a bit of a cold front come through our local area earlier this week. Tuesday night brought a little chaos as well as wind gusts that edged into what some could qualify as a category 3 hurricane (113 mph). At least that’s what I’m telling myself. I personally haven’t seen rain move that horizontal in a while. Oh, and marble sized hail sounds a lot larger when it’s backed by winds at 1/8 the speed of sound…
Corn bulls halted things this week, as December close the week with a ¼ cent gain. The Monday Crop Progress data showed 62% of the US corn crop dented by August 30, with 13% listed at mature. Condition ratings were unchanged this week at 57% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 1 at 346. EIA showed ethanol production slipping 2,000 barrels per day in the week of 8/28 to 1.11 million bpd. Stocks were back down 171,000 barrels in that week 25.036 million barrels. USDA’s monthly Grain Crushing report from Tuesday showed 474.7 mbu of corn used for ethanol in July, 2.3% above last month and 3.75% larger yr/yr. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at net cancellations of 829,569 MT in the week of August 27, with new crop sales to a new MY high at 1.986 MMT in that week. Census data indicated 7.48 MMT (294.4 mbu) of corn shipped in July, a record for the month. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders at their largest recorded net long position in corn futures and options as of 9/1 at 431,062. That was an increase of 54,549 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex was weaker this week. CBT soft red winter futures were back down 50 cents (6.38%). KC hard red winter futures were 42 cents lower for the December contract. HRS futures were 24 1/4 cents in the red. The Black Sea situation calmed down this week, as Russia’s President Putin suggested at a hint of a peace deal, with a US envoy of expected to head there over the long weekend. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed 77% of the US spring wheat crop was harvested as of August 30. Export Sales data from the week of August 27 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 313,516 MT. Monthly Census data indicated 1.648 MMT (60.55 mbu) of wheat shipped in July, which was down 27.46% yr/yr and a 4-year low. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money flipping back to a net long of 14,654 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of September 1, a move of 28,825 contracts to the long side. Spec traders in KC wheat added to their net long by 6,222 contracts, at 50,284 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans extended the rally on the week, with November 21 ¾ cents higher. September soybean meal was $5.70 in the green on the week, with September bean oil posting a 193 point loss. Buyers continued make their presence known this week, with another 939,600 MT sold via daily announcements from to China and unknown buyers. On Monday, EPA announced they were granting 18 small refinery exemptions for 2025, with another 11 partial exemptions. The total volume exempt was 1.76 billion RINs, with 100% of the difference between projected and actual exempt totals reallocated for 2026 and 2027 RVOs. Soybean crush data showed 221.9 mbu of soybeans used by crushers in July, 8.16% larger than last year. Soybean oil stocks were seen at 1.963 billion lbs, 4.73% above last year. The weekly Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 13% dropping leaves by August 30. Crop ratings were down another 2% at 58% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, with the Brugler500 index down 4 at 354. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean cancellations at 94,181 MT in the week ending on August 27. New crop business was reported at 1.948 MMT. Monthly Census data tallied 1.89 MMT (69.5 mbu) of soybeans shipped in July, up 6.29% from last year. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds adding another 42,929 contracts to their net long as of September 1, taking it to a net long of 241,183 contracts of futures and options.
Cattle firmed up this week, as October live cattle were up $1.22. Cash trade was steady for the week with sales ranging from $218-220 and up to $222 September feeder cattle were back up $3.925 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $4.00 week/week to $328.80. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened back out to $20.30 Choice boxes slipped just 6 cents/cwt on the week to $376.17, as Select fell $5.21 to $355.87. Weekly beef production was down 2.7% from the week prior at 465.7 million lbs. Year to date production is down 5.1% on an 7.5% drop in slaughter. Weekly Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds cutting another 9,527 contracts from their net long as of September 1, taking it to 47,915 contracts of futures and options in live cattle. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was adding back 1,794 contracts to a net long of just 7,508 contracts.
Hogs held up, mainly on early week strength, with October up 40 cents for the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.06 this week at $91.08 as of September 2. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continued to face weakness this week with a $3.30 loss for the week at $92.86/cwt. The picnic and rib were the only primal reported higher, with the belly falling $20.42. Weekly pork production was down 2.5% from the week prior at 490.8 million lbs. Production year to date is up 0.4% above last year on a 0.7% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money trimming back their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 9/1 by 2,812 contracts, taking the net short to 28,323 contracts.
Cotton futures were down 505 points in the week, with much of the weakness coming late. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 29% of the US cotton with bolls opening as of Sunday. Condition ratings were back up 2 percentage points at 39% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index slipping 2 points to 302. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 8/27 saw sales of just 27,525 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 189,480 RB. Census data showed 1.16 million bales of cotton exports, excluding linters, in July. That was a 4 year high, up 23.7% from last year, but a drop of 3.78% from last month. The Adjusted World Price was up 240 points to 73.92 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders added another 12,135 contracts to their net long in the week of September 1, taking the position to 107,976 contracts net long, a near record.
Market Watch
We start next week a day late with Labor Day on Monday as both the market and the government will be closed. The weekly Export Inspections report will be out on Tuesday morning and NASS Crop Progress report out that the afternoon. Weekly EIA data will be pushed back to Thursday morning, with monthly PPI data also out that morning. CPI data is released on Friday morning, as well as Export Sales data. Friday also rounds out the week with the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
In last week’s Tech Talk, we went pretty thoroughly through December corn. This week is Nove Beans turn, with a few similarities going on that were in the corn chart. The first is there seems to be an Elliott wave pattern emerging with the current wave identified as 3. This could the end of 3/start of 4, or we are still working on 3. We have moved $1.58 3/4 so far, which has outpaced the $1.34 3/4 from wave 1 so it could be the end. If we would get a correction, wave theory would suggest wave 4 doesn’t go below the $12.56 ½ high from July. Waves 4 and 5 are drawn on for visual reference and should not be taken as what (price and time) is expected. Still the 38.2% Fib retracement off the June low is at $12.46 1/2 Overbought stochastics would argue we get a correction. Though with ADX at 32 and a trend taking place, we could argue to look harder at the bullish MACD. Additionally the rising regression channel is still intact, with support at $12.96.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Cold Front. Ag Marketing Report 09/08/2026
The last couple weeks we have focused on a hotter grain market. A quick look at the price table below shows that things took a little bit of a cool off period this week. While the temperatures across the US did not necessarily cool down too much, we had a bit of a cold front come through our local area earlier this week. Tuesday night brought a little chaos as well as wind gusts that edged into what some could qualify as a category 3 hurricane (113 mph). At least that’s what I’m telling myself. I personally haven’t seen rain move that horizontal in a while. Oh, and marble sized hail sounds a lot larger when it’s backed by winds at 1/8 the speed of sound…
Corn bulls halted things this week, as December close the week with a ¼ cent gain. The Monday Crop Progress data showed 62% of the US corn crop dented by August 30, with 13% listed at mature. Condition ratings were unchanged this week at 57% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 1 at 346. EIA showed ethanol production slipping 2,000 barrels per day in the week of 8/28 to 1.11 million bpd. Stocks were back down 171,000 barrels in that week 25.036 million barrels. USDA’s monthly Grain Crushing report from Tuesday showed 474.7 mbu of corn used for ethanol in July, 2.3% above last month and 3.75% larger yr/yr. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at net cancellations of 829,569 MT in the week of August 27, with new crop sales to a new MY high at 1.986 MMT in that week. Census data indicated 7.48 MMT (294.4 mbu) of corn shipped in July, a record for the month. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders at their largest recorded net long position in corn futures and options as of 9/1 at 431,062. That was an increase of 54,549 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex was weaker this week. CBT soft red winter futures were back down 50 cents (6.38%). KC hard red winter futures were 42 cents lower for the December contract. HRS futures were 24 1/4 cents in the red. The Black Sea situation calmed down this week, as Russia’s President Putin suggested at a hint of a peace deal, with a US envoy of expected to head there over the long weekend. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed 77% of the US spring wheat crop was harvested as of August 30. Export Sales data from the week of August 27 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 313,516 MT. Monthly Census data indicated 1.648 MMT (60.55 mbu) of wheat shipped in July, which was down 27.46% yr/yr and a 4-year low. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money flipping back to a net long of 14,654 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of September 1, a move of 28,825 contracts to the long side. Spec traders in KC wheat added to their net long by 6,222 contracts, at 50,284 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans extended the rally on the week, with November 21 ¾ cents higher. September soybean meal was $5.70 in the green on the week, with September bean oil posting a 193 point loss. Buyers continued make their presence known this week, with another 939,600 MT sold via daily announcements from to China and unknown buyers. On Monday, EPA announced they were granting 18 small refinery exemptions for 2025, with another 11 partial exemptions. The total volume exempt was 1.76 billion RINs, with 100% of the difference between projected and actual exempt totals reallocated for 2026 and 2027 RVOs. Soybean crush data showed 221.9 mbu of soybeans used by crushers in July, 8.16% larger than last year. Soybean oil stocks were seen at 1.963 billion lbs, 4.73% above last year. The weekly Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 13% dropping leaves by August 30. Crop ratings were down another 2% at 58% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, with the Brugler500 index down 4 at 354. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean cancellations at 94,181 MT in the week ending on August 27. New crop business was reported at 1.948 MMT. Monthly Census data tallied 1.89 MMT (69.5 mbu) of soybeans shipped in July, up 6.29% from last year. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds adding another 42,929 contracts to their net long as of September 1, taking it to a net long of 241,183 contracts of futures and options.
Cattle firmed up this week, as October live cattle were up $1.22. Cash trade was steady for the week with sales ranging from $218-220 and up to $222 September feeder cattle were back up $3.925 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $4.00 week/week to $328.80. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened back out to $20.30 Choice boxes slipped just 6 cents/cwt on the week to $376.17, as Select fell $5.21 to $355.87. Weekly beef production was down 2.7% from the week prior at 465.7 million lbs. Year to date production is down 5.1% on an 7.5% drop in slaughter. Weekly Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds cutting another 9,527 contracts from their net long as of September 1, taking it to 47,915 contracts of futures and options in live cattle. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was adding back 1,794 contracts to a net long of just 7,508 contracts.
Hogs held up, mainly on early week strength, with October up 40 cents for the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.06 this week at $91.08 as of September 2. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continued to face weakness this week with a $3.30 loss for the week at $92.86/cwt. The picnic and rib were the only primal reported higher, with the belly falling $20.42. Weekly pork production was down 2.5% from the week prior at 490.8 million lbs. Production year to date is up 0.4% above last year on a 0.7% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money trimming back their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 9/1 by 2,812 contracts, taking the net short to 28,323 contracts.
Cotton futures were down 505 points in the week, with much of the weakness coming late. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 29% of the US cotton with bolls opening as of Sunday. Condition ratings were back up 2 percentage points at 39% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index slipping 2 points to 302. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 8/27 saw sales of just 27,525 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 189,480 RB. Census data showed 1.16 million bales of cotton exports, excluding linters, in July. That was a 4 year high, up 23.7% from last year, but a drop of 3.78% from last month. The Adjusted World Price was up 240 points to 73.92 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders added another 12,135 contracts to their net long in the week of September 1, taking the position to 107,976 contracts net long, a near record.
Market Watch
We start next week a day late with Labor Day on Monday as both the market and the government will be closed. The weekly Export Inspections report will be out on Tuesday morning and NASS Crop Progress report out that the afternoon. Weekly EIA data will be pushed back to Thursday morning, with monthly PPI data also out that morning. CPI data is released on Friday morning, as well as Export Sales data. Friday also rounds out the week with the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
In last week’s Tech Talk, we went pretty thoroughly through December corn. This week is Nove Beans turn, with a few similarities going on that were in the corn chart. The first is there seems to be an Elliott wave pattern emerging with the current wave identified as 3. This could the end of 3/start of 4, or we are still working on 3. We have moved $1.58 3/4 so far, which has outpaced the $1.34 3/4 from wave 1 so it could be the end. If we would get a correction, wave theory would suggest wave 4 doesn’t go below the $12.56 ½ high from July. Waves 4 and 5 are drawn on for visual reference and should not be taken as what (price and time) is expected. Still the 38.2% Fib retracement off the June low is at $12.46 1/2 Overbought stochastics would argue we get a correction. Though with ADX at 32 and a trend taking place, we could argue to look harder at the bullish MACD. Additionally the rising regression channel is still intact, with support at $12.96.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.