About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Wheat: Wheat was a little higher in Chicago and near unchanged in Kansas City last week after an early rally based on reports of more war between Ukraine and Russia faded.   The price action was also tied to reports of reduced exports due to increased tensions in the Black Sea with Ukrainian bombing keeping  Russia unable to ship anything through the Azov Sea and world weather.  The Winter Wheat harvest is almost over.  Spring Wheat is being harvested and is rated 52% good to in reports released a week ago excellent.  Conditions are good in the US Midwest, but Europe has been too hot.  The weather is now featuring scattered showers for parts of the Midwest along with moderate  temperatures after a got week last week.  The Great Plains should stay hot and dry.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

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Corn:  Corn was higher last week after big rains were reported over the precious weekend and on the results of the Pro Farmer tour.  Weakness was seen on response to increased production estimates from Brazil released last week.  The Pro Farmer tour found below average yields in Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska, and western Iowa.  Minnesota yields were above the average but below Last year.  We made a quick crop tour of Indiana and Illinois late last week and over the weekend.  Yield reports were generally good but below last year.  We purposely sought to find good looking fields.  Many fields were yellowing from nitrogen loss from too much rain and some fields had lower leaves dying due to the rain and heat alternating.  Buying was seen based on reports of  more big rains in much of the Midwest.  Northwest areas did especially benefit, but central and many northern areas of the Midwest were hurt due to excessive rains.  There is still too much hot and dry weather in the western and southern Midwest but moderating conditions in Europe.  Ukraine and Russia are back at war again and shipping is very limited in both countries.  It should be cooler with drier weather in the Midwest this week.  The crop conditions are unchanged from last week and below aa year ago.  Maturity is starting and progress is ahead of normal.  Temperatures in the Midwest should be cooler this week.  Oats were near unchanged last week.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher and Soybean Oil was a little higher yesterday on reports of more Chinese demand and because of reports for rain in the northern half of the Midwest and into central areas.  The rain caused some significant ponding in Illinois and Indiana as seen from our brief crop tour late last week and over the weekend.  The Pro Farmer crop tur found below average yield potential in Indiana but near average potential in Illinois.  Nebraska had below averaged potential but Iowa and Minnesota had above average potential.  It is still mostly hot and dry in the southern and western Midwest.  Rapid blooming and setting pods progress was shown by USDA this week and reports of good conditions continue.  Condition is below a year ago.  Pro Farmer found below average yield potential in South Dakota and Ohio.  Cooler temperatures and drier weather in northern areas are expected for the next week in the Midwest.  Southern areas should stay hot and dry

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice: Rice closed higher last week despite harvest pressure.  Brazil prices are also strong on ideas of short production and El Nino fears for production on the next crop.  Condition was little changed from the previous week  Harvest is active in most states.  Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice and was moderate last week.  El Nino is threatening production in Asia and Indian prices remain high,  Trends are up on the daily charts and are turning up on the weekly charts,

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil was little changed last week.  Canola was higher last week.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:  Cotton was a little higher last week as stressful weather conditions continue.  USDA trimmed production to 13.61 million bales.  Ending stocks were estimated at 3.0 million bales.  USDA showed that conditions are still well behind year ago levels with the crop opening bolls.  Progress is slipping behind average.  Forecasts and reports of scattered to isolated showers in Cotton areas continue for the Delts, and the Southeast.  Temperatures will be warm to hot in all areas.  Trends are mixed on the daily and are up the weekly charts.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were higher last week and trends are mixed on the daily charts but could be turning up.  The weekly charts are mixed to up.  It is still dry in Florida but showers are showing up.  The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal and some rains are now being reported.  The weather is considered good for production in Mexico but it is dry in Brazil.  Scattered showers are still reported in southern Brazil but many areas are drying out seasonally.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York closed higher and London was lower last week and trends are still up on the New York daily charts but are turning down in London.  Brazil coffee is more and more available as farmers are rewarding the rally with sales.  Lower quality coffee is available but higher quality is hard to find due to weather problems.  The next crop is developing in South America amid scattered to isolated showers.  Brazil has been hot.  Indonesia is now about 80% harvested.  Asian conditions are called good.  Other world production conditions are generally good.  Mexico is in good condition, but Central America is dry.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York and London were higher last week and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts.  The Iran war made bio fuels less valuable again, and Sugar has been slow to respond to rallies in petroleum products anyway.  Drought in Europe and Brail are a major concern.  The hot and dry weather is causing losses in Sugar beets production.  There have been some rains in center-south Brazil causing some harvest delas, but generally dry weather is now forecast.  Indian production is also less after hot and dry conditions and production in the rest of Asia could be hurt by El Nino weather.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:   New York was higher  and London was lower last week as reports that farmers are waiting so see the crop sizes before selling continue.  Daily chart trends are mixed and weekly trends are mixed.  A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year but demand has started to increase.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

 

 

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322