Grains Report 08/24/2026

Pro Farmer projects US corn yield well below USDA view after wild summer weather – Reuters News
By Ed White
21 Aug 2026 03:59:46 PM
Open in LSEG Workspace
ROCHESTER, Minnesota, Aug 21 (Reuters) – U.S. 2026 corn production will fall well below government forecasts, advisory service Pro Farmer, a division of Farm Journal Media, said on Friday after a tour of seven major production states that found subpar crops hurt by adverse summer weather.
But Pro Farmer projected a larger soybean harvest than the U.S. Agriculture Department’s outlook for record production following a sometimes rainy, mud-caked tour, noting “pockets of strong potential” for the crop that is highly dependent on late-season precipitation.
Farmers and grain traders have been closely following the Pro Farmer crop tour this week amid broader global grain supply worries after heat waves damaged European crops and conflicts in the Black Sea region and the Middle East disrupted agricultural markets.
Disappointing tour findings lifted Chicago Board of Trade corn futures by 5.2% this week, with the benchmark contract Cv1 surpassing $5 a bushel for the first time in 18 months, while soybean futures topped $12 a bushel to post a 3-1/2-week high.
Pro Farmer projected that farmers would harvest a corn crop of 15.344 billion bushels, down 9.9% from 2025 but still the third-largest on record, with an average yield of 173.2 bushels per acre (bpa). Pro Farmer’s U.S. yield estimate, if realized, would be the lowest since 2020.
The outlook compares with the USDA’s August 12 forecast for corn production at 16.013 billion bushels with yields averaging 180.7 bpa.
“In corn, lower ear populations, shorter grain length and inconsistent field performance limited upside in a number of areas,” said Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and leader of the crop tour’s western leg.
Scouts on this week’s crop tour found saturated fields in Ohio and Indiana, but farther west, corn in parts of Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota showed the effects of hot and dry weather.
“You can’t have your fifth-hottest July in history and think that you’re going to get 200-bushel corn,” said Monty Schlecht, a Canby, Minnesota, farmer who stopped to chat with tour scouts on Thursday.
For soybeans, Pro Farmer projected a crop of 4.572 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.3 bpa.
The figures are above the USDA’s August 12 forecast for a record-large harvest of 4.519 billion bushels, with a yield of 52.7 bpa.
“Soybeans showed pockets of strong potential but remain more dependent on late-season weather and plant health,” Flory said.
(Reporting by Ed White in Rochester, Minnesota; Writing by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat was a little higher in Chicago and near unchanged in Kansas City last week after an early rally based on reports of more war between Ukraine and Russia faded. The price action was also tied to reports of reduced exports due to increased tensions in the Black Sea with Ukrainian bombing keeping Russia unable to ship anything through the Azov Sea and world weather. The Winter Wheat harvest is almost over. Spring Wheat is being harvested and is rated 52% good to in reports released a week ago excellent. Conditions are good in the US Midwest, but Europe has been too hot. The weather is now featuring scattered showers for parts of the Midwest along with moderate temperatures after a got week last week. The Great Plains should stay hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 646, 626, and 620 September, with resistance at 711, 718, and 724 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 719, 691, and 679 September, with resistance at 777, 784, and 790 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 573,777
: Positions :
: 54,440 101,770 220,084 112,939 149,167 145,210 65,130 532,673 536,151: 41,104 37,625
: Changes from: August 11, 2026 (Change in open interest: -8,021) :
: -2,394 -4,462 830 -7,706 5,465 2,570 -8,599 -6,701 -6,766: -1,321 -1,256
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 17.7 38.4 19.7 26.0 25.3 11.4 92.8 93.4: 7.2 6.6
: Total Traders: 444 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 131 110 159 100 121 46 25 361 344:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 339,878
: Positions :
: 48,980 47,057 121,353 55,041 126,155 91,365 22,195 316,740 316,761: 23,138 23,117
: Changes from: August 11, 2026 (Change in open interest: -5,309) :
: 861 -162 2,586 -8,453 -6,081 975 -2,350 -4,031 -6,008: -1,278 699
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 13.8 35.7 16.2 37.1 26.9 6.5 93.2 93.2: 6.8 6.8
: Total Traders: 279 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 61 91 70 99 35 11 219 221:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 80,500 :
: Positions :
: 37,295 57,106 7,185 0 789 18,563 6,900 2,637 1,553 598 3,329 :
: Changes from: August 11, 2026 :
: -2,879 -1,568 -20 0 19 972 -812 -2,304 62 -453 626 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.3 70.9 8.9 0.0 1.0 23.1 8.6 3.3 1.9 0.7 4.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 111 :
: 55 41 9 0 5 14 10 10 10 . 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments Rice closed higher last week despite harvest pressure. Brazil prices are also strong on ideas of short production and El Nino fears for production on the next crop. Condition was little changed from the previous week Harvest is active in most states. Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice and was moderate last week. El Nino is threatening production in Asia and Indian prices remain high, Trends are up on the daily charts and are turning up on the weekly charts,
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1475, 1448, and 1434 September and resistance is at 1504, 1516, and 1528 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 15,333 :
: Positions :
: 5,775 8,458 259 0 0 2,941 2,522 98 1,186 1,413 1,929 :
: Changes from: August 11, 2026 :
: 253 330 -111 0 0 27 56 -11 152 38 -33 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 37.7 55.2 1.7 0.0 0.0 19.2 16.4 0.6 7.7 9.2 12.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 73 :
: 19 22 . 0 0 13 7 . 12 8 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher last week after big rains were reported over the precious weekend and on the results of the Pro Farmer tour. Weakness was seen on response to increased production estimates from Brazil released last week. We made a quick crop tour of Indiana and Illinois two weeks ago and over the following weekend. Yield reports were generally good but below last year. We purposely sought to find good looking fields. Many fields were yellowing from nitrogen loss from too much rain and some fields had lower leaves dying due to the rain and heat alternating. Buying was seen based on reports of more big rains in much of the Midwest. Northwest areas did especially benefit, but central and many northern areas of the Midwest were hurt due to excessive rains. There is still too much hot and dry weather in the western and southern Midwest but moderating conditions in Europe. Ukraine and Russia are back at war again and shipping is very limited in both countries. It should be cooler with drier weather in the Midwest this week. The crop conditions are unchanged from last week and below aa year ago. Maturity is starting and progress is ahead of normal. Temperatures in the Midwest should be cooler this week. Oats were near unchanged last week.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 205,0009 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed . Support is at 468, 461, and 457 September, and resistance is at 484, 490, and 496 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 307,to up 300, and 294 September, and resistance is at 333, 349, and 347 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,395,505
: Positions :
: 260,328 181,769 777,563 661,257 1,063,680 511,950 140,074 2,211,098 2,163,085: 184,407 232,420
: Changes from: August 11, 2026 (Change in open interest: 126,802) :
: 18,189 -21,378 60,923 -470 69,550 47,992 14,281 126,634 123,376: 168 3,425
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 7.6 32.5 27.6 44.4 21.4 5.8 92.3 90.3: 7.7 9.7
: Total Traders: 894 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 192 135 220 404 428 52 25 750 719:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher and Soybean Oil was a little higher yesterday on reports of more Chinese demand and because of reports for rain in the northern half of the Midwest and into central areas. The rain caused some significant ponding in Illinois and Indiana as seen from our brief crop tour two weeks ago and over the following weekend. It is still mostly hot and dry in the southern and western Midwest. Rapid blooming and setting pods progress was shown by USDA this week and reports of good conditions continue. Condition is below a year ago. Pro Farmer found below average yield potential in South Dakota and Ohio. Cooler temperatures and drier weather in northern areas are expected for the next week in the Midwest. Southern areas should stay hot and dry
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1210, 1198 and 1181 September, and resistance is at 1238, 1250, and 1262 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 314.00, 308.00, and 396.00 September, and resistance is at 328.00, 331.00,and 334.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6660, 6540, and 6440 September, with resistance at 7260, 7290, and 7420 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,219,563
: Positions :
: 165,215 78,726 339,550 435,629 681,773 226,764 43,172 1,167,157 1,143,220: 52,406 76,343
: Changes from: August 11, 2026 (Change in open interest: 16,331) :
: 24,275 -14,523 311 -15,555 29,650 7,823 2,210 16,855 17,649: -524 -1,318
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 6.5 27.8 35.7 55.9 18.6 3.5 95.7 93.7: 4.3 6.3
: Total Traders: 667 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 171 114 182 214 291 48 15 514 536:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 724,383
: Positions :
: 102,646 37,474 184,471 266,341 444,987 132,901 31,500 686,358 698,433: 38,025 25,951
: Changes from: August 11, 2026 (Change in open interest: 12,704) :
: 9,335 -9,160 -1,199 -5,477 18,625 9,154 3,256 11,812 11,521: 892 1,182
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 5.2 25.5 36.8 61.4 18.3 4.3 94.8 96.4: 5.2 3.6
: Total Traders: 341 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 103 51 104 107 108 43 21 302 244:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 660,975
: Positions :
: 117,104 49,857 147,556 202,226 414,527 139,853 22,359 606,738 634,299: 54,238 26,676
: Changes from: August 11, 2026 (Change in open interest: 4,009) :
: 6,512 -6,601 -9,151 3,194 20,273 2,937 1,369 3,491 5,889: 518 -1,880
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.7 7.5 22.3 30.6 62.7 21.2 3.4 91.8 96.0: 8.2 4.0
: Total Traders: 333 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 50 93 128 120 39 15 297 246:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on strength in outside markets but were lower today. Canola was higher.
Overnight News
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 795.00, 778.00, and 769.00 November, with resistance at 839.00, 845.00, and 852.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4850, 4800, and 4750 November, with resistance at 5020, 5050, and 5080 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 45,449 :
: Positions :
: 39,621 32,862 700 3,869 2,748 120 4,652 0 1,180 298 1,020 :
: Changes from: August 11, 2026 :
: -2,395 -2,037 0 -1,175 -224 0 777 0 -40 0 360 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 87.2 72.3 1.5 8.5 6.0 0.3 10.2 0.0 2.6 0.7 2.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :
: 10 10 . 5 4 . . 0 . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 374,551 :
: Positions :
: 158,562 222,854 8,941 22,448 4,537 125,309 33,857 30,654 14,109 26,678 29,077 :
: Changes from: August 11, 2026 :
: 904 43,720 -376 -2,022 -163 26,842 -9,829 503 3,783 -500 657 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 42.3 59.5 2.4 6.0 1.2 33.5 9.0 8.2 3.8 7.1 7.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 506 :
: 50 141 7 9 8 72 34 25 65 156 62 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 1202.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1240.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1282.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1285.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 1207.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1245.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1287.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1290.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 1165.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 1100.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 4,710.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 486.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0405)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322