About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 30
For the week ended Jul 23, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 285.2 0.0 6920.7 9544.5 4347.9 26.9
hrw 72.3 0.0 1695.4 3657.8 899.2 0.0
srw 29.7 0.0 1091.2 1500.0 600.7 0.0
hrs 101.1 0.0 2058.5 2594.6 1427.4 0.0
white 63.5 0.0 1865.2 1642.9 1290.5 26.9
durum 18.6 0.0 210.5 149.2 130.2 0.0
corn 362.9 1062.4 86975.6 70450.9 10602.2 8623.6
soybeans 302.3 1333.2 41682.5 51024.7 2711.4 7468.9
soymeal 63.3 51.4 17604.2 15356.0 3252.8 1420.9
soyoil -1.1 0.0 375.0 1081.4 22.0 0.5
upland cotton 29.7 352.4 12032.0 11767.6 1124.3 2879.3
pima cotton 2.7 5.5 496.8 466.3 54.5 101.5
sorghum 7.6 0.0 5063.6 1733.5 262.9 0.0
barley 1.0 0.0 44.1 54.6 36.6 0.0
rice 9.5 1.5 2669.8 2998.3 215.4 316.6

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat was a little lower. The price action was tied to increased tensions in the Black Sea with Russia unable to ship anything through the Azov Sea and to the USDA reports and world weather. Reports from Friday indicate that Turkey was moving to intervene and get Wheat from ports in both countries moving again. The export sales report showed demand was at the lower end of expectations. The harvest has been interrupted by too much rain in Texas and harvest yield reports remain low The crop harvest us now about three quarters complete. Spring Wheat has been heading and is rated 53% good to excellent. The harvest has started. Conditions are good in the US Midwest, but Europe has been too hot. The weather is now featuring scattered showers for parts of the Midwest along with moderate temperatures after a got week last week. The Great Plains should stay hot and dry except for Texas which could see more rains.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 647, 638, and 620 September, with resistance at 712, 724, and 736 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 691, 679, and 659 September, with resistance at 770, 782, and 794 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available

RICE:
General Comments Rice closed lower yesterday after trading gigher early in the day. USDA said that Rice planted and harvested area is estimated to be sharply lower this year, leading to much lower production and tighter ending stocks estimates. Emergence is about average, and condition has improved slightly from last week Harvest has started in Texas.. Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice and was moderate to poor last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1340, 1393, and 1292 September and resistance is at 1379, 1413, and 1421 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on the forecasts for rain in the northern half of the Midwest this weekend. Northwest areas could especially benefit. There is still too much hot and dry weather in the western Midwest and in Europe The export sales report showed that demand was at the lower end of expectations. It should be warm with showers in the northern Midwest this week but other areas should stay mostly dry. The crop conditions are lower than last week and below aa year ago. Dough is starting and progress is ahead of normal. Temperatures in the Midwest should be cooler this week. Oats were lower yesterday on worries about new tariffs on Canada weakening prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 436, 427, and 421 September, and resistance is at 472, 478, and 484 September. Trends in Oats are down. Support is at 318, 307, and 300 September, and resistance is at 333, 349, and 347 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on forecasts for rain in the northern half of the Midwest this weekend. Northwest areas could especially benefit. It is still mostly hot and dry in the Midwest. Rapid blooming and setting pods progress was shown by USDA this week and reports of good conditions continue. Condition is less than last week and below a year ago. Warmer temperatures and wet weather in northern areas are expected for the next week in the Midwest.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1206, 1185, and 1170 August, and resistance is at 1250, 1256, and 1268 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are up. Support is at 315.00, 309.00, and 305.00 August, and resistance is at 346.00, 344.00,and 356.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7170, 6940, and 6940 August, with resistance at 7410, 7680, and 7810 August.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher again today on strength in outside markets. Canola was lower yesterday on improved growing conditions.
Overnight News
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 787.00, 780.00, and 7787.00 November, with resistance at 822.00, 831.00, and 848.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4530, 4490, and 4430 October, with resistance at 4590, 4740, and 4780 October.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1147.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 1160.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1182.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1202.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/June 1205.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1152.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 1165.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1187.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1207.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1210.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1117.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1065.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,550.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 471.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.088)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322