There was a decent amount of price movement this week across much of the grains, with the livestock having more of a calmer look to the week. Up until Thursday, the wheat market had been leading the charge as a limited export flow out of the Black Sea and tighter US production caused buyers to flock in. Reaching new highs, specifically a three-year high for the Kansas City wheat market, some of those bulls that we’re trying to fly the coop saw some humility late in the week with a correction. This week also saw a couple of our chickens get out of their enclosed area (fly the coop) into our backyard. To our 4 month old puppy, they looked more like a chew toy. While all came out of the situation unscathed, with the exception to a couple bite marks and a severe ‘you know what’ whooping, there were some lessons learned on both ends. We can all hope anyways. Afterall, there are several saying that involve the wheat market and few of them imply they learned their lesson (trade wheat/sleep in the street, wheat takes no prisoners, and so on).
Corn continued the climb back to the May highs, with September up another 19 ½ cents. December was 20 cents higher. This last week’s Crop Progress report showed 59% of the US corn crop as silking by July 19, with 13% in the dough stage. Condition ratings were back down 1% at 67% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index 1 points lower to 372. EIA showed ethanol production back up 54,000 barrels per day to 1.094 million bpd in the week of 7/17. Stocks rose 90,000 barrels in that week 24.481 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at 332,679 MT in the week of July 16, with new crop sales at 701,505 MT in that week. Commitment of Traders data as of 7/21 showed managed money adding another 49,518 contracts of futures and options to their net long to 92,909 contracts
The wheat complex was in mixed this week as the rally was put on pause late. SRW futures slipped back 4 ¾ cents this week for the September contract, with KC wheat 13 cents higher. MPLS spring wheat up 22 1/2 cents in the September contract. Futures were back and forth this week on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, as Russia limited nighttime shipments out of the Novorossiysk port due to Ukrainian strikes. Late in the week, proposed a plan to keep vessels moving in the Black Sea, though there was no formal agreement between the two countries. The annual spring wheat tour results were released on Thursday, with an average estimate of 48 bpa. That was below the 49.0 bpa last year but above the 45.8 bpa average from the last 5 years. Crop Progress data from NASS showed 74% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by last Sunday. Spring wheat was 86% headed, with ratings dropping 4% to 53% of the crop in gd/ex condition, a 345 rating on the Brugler500 index, down 6 points from the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of July 16 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 290,016 MT. Commitments of Traders showed managed money slashing their net short by 17,449 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of July 21 to 19,349 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat increased their new net long by 12,450 contracts to 29,944 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans were in rally mode for much of the week, with August up 43 ½ cents, as November up 50 1/2 cents on the week. August soybean meal was just $11.10 higher this week, with August bean oil posting a 48 point loss. Buyers were active again this week, with another 500,000 MT sold via daily announcement from USDA to both China and unknown buyers. Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 66% blooming by July 19, with 32% setting pods. Crop ratings were up 1% with 66% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, with the Brugler500 index improving another 2 points to 369. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 56,351 MT in the week ending on 7/16. New crop business was reported just 1.006 MMT. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds adding 52,212 contracts from their net long as of July 21, taking it to a new long of 124,900 contracts of futures and options.
Cattle saw some buyers come in this week, as August live cattle was $2.65 higher on the week. Cash trade continued to pull back, down $6-7 to the $230/231 area. August feeder cattle were down 62 cents this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $14.38 week/week to $349.65. USDA late on Friday announced the phase reopening of the border to Mexican cattle imports in 30 days starting in Arizona. Wholesale boxed beef prices fell apart this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $11.52. Choice boxes slipped another $5.57/cwt on the week to $361.24, as Select was $8.58 lower at $346.71. Weekly beef production was up 0.6% from the week prior but 2.2% below same week last year at 467.3 million lbs. Year to date production is down 5.8% on an 8.3% drop in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data report showed placements in June down 2.91% from last year at 1.399 million head. Marketings were seen 2.69% lower yr/yr to 1.661 million head. July 1 on feed data was up 2.21% vs. 2025 at 11.37 million head. Bi-annual Cattle inventory data showed 28.45 million beef cows down 0.7% yr/yr, with replacement beef heifers up 2.9% to 3.6 million head. The 2026 calf crop was down 1.5% from 2025 at 32.5 million head. Cold Storage data from USDA indicated beef stocks tightening 3.43% from the end of May at 389.23 million lbs for June 30. That was down 2.76% from a year ago. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds slashing another 20,961 contracts from their net long as of July 21, taking it to 75,363 contracts of futures and options in live cattle futures and options. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was cutting back another 1,975 contracts to a net long of just 7,905 contracts.
Hogs closed the week on a higher note, with August up $1.20. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $2.38 this week at $97.48 as of July 22. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was firmer this week, with a gain of 22 cents to $104.63/cwt. The belly and ham primals were the only reported higher. Weekly pork production was down 1.4% from the week prior and 0.1% below the same week last year at 486.9 million lbs. Production so far this year is up 0.7% above last year on a 0.4% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data from Friday showed June 30 pork stocks at 458.22 million lbs. That was up 9.44% from last year and 0.7% above the end of May. CFTC data showed managed money adding another 1,436 contracts to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 7/21, taking the net short to 18,157 contracts.
Cotton futures were got a bounce back this week, with December up 135 points. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 73% of the US cotton crop squared last Sunday, with 32% setting bolls. Condition ratings were back up 1 percentage point at 45% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index back up 1 point to 332. Export Sales from the week of 7/9 were tallied at 51,287 RB for old crop, with16,146 RB for new crop. Shipments were reported at 276,313 RB. The Adjusted World Price was down 155 points to 63.82 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders added another 3,525 contracts to their net long in the week of July 21, taking the position to 53,209 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the weekly NASS Crop Progress report out in the afternoon. Weekly EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning. The Fed will release the rate decision following their two day meeting on Wednesday. Thursday will see the weekly Export Sales report. Friday will round things out with first notice day for August soybean complex futures
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have had a fairly nice breakout since taking out the May high of $12.14 on Monday. The gap left on the Sunday night open at $12.04 remains there, as futures not only broke through that high, but posted a breakout of a short-term bull pennant formation, reaching the count of $12.48 on Thursday. A more aggressive count using the flagpole would point to a count of $12.90. There is a 1.618 Fibonacci expansion count at $12.71 off of the pullback during May and June. At this point, the trend has been your friend, with MACD riding quite a bit of bullish momentum, and an ADX rising, now at 23, suggesting to shift some focus away from the overbought stochastics indicator. That doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t get a correction, but the bulls are in full control at this point, though they are still at the mercy of weather forecasts. If things would shift more towards a bearish outlook, the initial target would be the gap at $12.04 with the 18 day moving average at $11.98.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Don’t Fly the Coop. Ag Marketing Report 07/27/2026
There was a decent amount of price movement this week across much of the grains, with the livestock having more of a calmer look to the week. Up until Thursday, the wheat market had been leading the charge as a limited export flow out of the Black Sea and tighter US production caused buyers to flock in. Reaching new highs, specifically a three-year high for the Kansas City wheat market, some of those bulls that we’re trying to fly the coop saw some humility late in the week with a correction. This week also saw a couple of our chickens get out of their enclosed area (fly the coop) into our backyard. To our 4 month old puppy, they looked more like a chew toy. While all came out of the situation unscathed, with the exception to a couple bite marks and a severe ‘you know what’ whooping, there were some lessons learned on both ends. We can all hope anyways. Afterall, there are several saying that involve the wheat market and few of them imply they learned their lesson (trade wheat/sleep in the street, wheat takes no prisoners, and so on).
Corn continued the climb back to the May highs, with September up another 19 ½ cents. December was 20 cents higher. This last week’s Crop Progress report showed 59% of the US corn crop as silking by July 19, with 13% in the dough stage. Condition ratings were back down 1% at 67% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index 1 points lower to 372. EIA showed ethanol production back up 54,000 barrels per day to 1.094 million bpd in the week of 7/17. Stocks rose 90,000 barrels in that week 24.481 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at 332,679 MT in the week of July 16, with new crop sales at 701,505 MT in that week. Commitment of Traders data as of 7/21 showed managed money adding another 49,518 contracts of futures and options to their net long to 92,909 contracts
The wheat complex was in mixed this week as the rally was put on pause late. SRW futures slipped back 4 ¾ cents this week for the September contract, with KC wheat 13 cents higher. MPLS spring wheat up 22 1/2 cents in the September contract. Futures were back and forth this week on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, as Russia limited nighttime shipments out of the Novorossiysk port due to Ukrainian strikes. Late in the week, proposed a plan to keep vessels moving in the Black Sea, though there was no formal agreement between the two countries. The annual spring wheat tour results were released on Thursday, with an average estimate of 48 bpa. That was below the 49.0 bpa last year but above the 45.8 bpa average from the last 5 years. Crop Progress data from NASS showed 74% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by last Sunday. Spring wheat was 86% headed, with ratings dropping 4% to 53% of the crop in gd/ex condition, a 345 rating on the Brugler500 index, down 6 points from the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of July 16 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 290,016 MT. Commitments of Traders showed managed money slashing their net short by 17,449 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of July 21 to 19,349 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat increased their new net long by 12,450 contracts to 29,944 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans were in rally mode for much of the week, with August up 43 ½ cents, as November up 50 1/2 cents on the week. August soybean meal was just $11.10 higher this week, with August bean oil posting a 48 point loss. Buyers were active again this week, with another 500,000 MT sold via daily announcement from USDA to both China and unknown buyers. Crop Progress data showed the US soybean crop at 66% blooming by July 19, with 32% setting pods. Crop ratings were up 1% with 66% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, with the Brugler500 index improving another 2 points to 369. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 56,351 MT in the week ending on 7/16. New crop business was reported just 1.006 MMT. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds adding 52,212 contracts from their net long as of July 21, taking it to a new long of 124,900 contracts of futures and options.
Cattle saw some buyers come in this week, as August live cattle was $2.65 higher on the week. Cash trade continued to pull back, down $6-7 to the $230/231 area. August feeder cattle were down 62 cents this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $14.38 week/week to $349.65. USDA late on Friday announced the phase reopening of the border to Mexican cattle imports in 30 days starting in Arizona. Wholesale boxed beef prices fell apart this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $11.52. Choice boxes slipped another $5.57/cwt on the week to $361.24, as Select was $8.58 lower at $346.71. Weekly beef production was up 0.6% from the week prior but 2.2% below same week last year at 467.3 million lbs. Year to date production is down 5.8% on an 8.3% drop in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data report showed placements in June down 2.91% from last year at 1.399 million head. Marketings were seen 2.69% lower yr/yr to 1.661 million head. July 1 on feed data was up 2.21% vs. 2025 at 11.37 million head. Bi-annual Cattle inventory data showed 28.45 million beef cows down 0.7% yr/yr, with replacement beef heifers up 2.9% to 3.6 million head. The 2026 calf crop was down 1.5% from 2025 at 32.5 million head. Cold Storage data from USDA indicated beef stocks tightening 3.43% from the end of May at 389.23 million lbs for June 30. That was down 2.76% from a year ago. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds slashing another 20,961 contracts from their net long as of July 21, taking it to 75,363 contracts of futures and options in live cattle futures and options. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was cutting back another 1,975 contracts to a net long of just 7,905 contracts.
Hogs closed the week on a higher note, with August up $1.20. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $2.38 this week at $97.48 as of July 22. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was firmer this week, with a gain of 22 cents to $104.63/cwt. The belly and ham primals were the only reported higher. Weekly pork production was down 1.4% from the week prior and 0.1% below the same week last year at 486.9 million lbs. Production so far this year is up 0.7% above last year on a 0.4% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data from Friday showed June 30 pork stocks at 458.22 million lbs. That was up 9.44% from last year and 0.7% above the end of May. CFTC data showed managed money adding another 1,436 contracts to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 7/21, taking the net short to 18,157 contracts.
Cotton futures were got a bounce back this week, with December up 135 points. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 73% of the US cotton crop squared last Sunday, with 32% setting bolls. Condition ratings were back up 1 percentage point at 45% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index back up 1 point to 332. Export Sales from the week of 7/9 were tallied at 51,287 RB for old crop, with16,146 RB for new crop. Shipments were reported at 276,313 RB. The Adjusted World Price was down 155 points to 63.82 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders added another 3,525 contracts to their net long in the week of July 21, taking the position to 53,209 contracts net long.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the weekly NASS Crop Progress report out in the afternoon. Weekly EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning. The Fed will release the rate decision following their two day meeting on Wednesday. Thursday will see the weekly Export Sales report. Friday will round things out with first notice day for August soybean complex futures
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have had a fairly nice breakout since taking out the May high of $12.14 on Monday. The gap left on the Sunday night open at $12.04 remains there, as futures not only broke through that high, but posted a breakout of a short-term bull pennant formation, reaching the count of $12.48 on Thursday. A more aggressive count using the flagpole would point to a count of $12.90. There is a 1.618 Fibonacci expansion count at $12.71 off of the pullback during May and June. At this point, the trend has been your friend, with MACD riding quite a bit of bullish momentum, and an ADX rising, now at 23, suggesting to shift some focus away from the overbought stochastics indicator. That doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t get a correction, but the bulls are in full control at this point, though they are still at the mercy of weather forecasts. If things would shift more towards a bearish outlook, the initial target would be the gap at $12.04 with the 18 day moving average at $11.98.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.