Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Retail Sales MoM & YoY, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales Control Group MoM, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-week average , NT Fed Services Activity Index, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEX Index, Philly Fed Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, Philly Fed Prices Paid, and Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM at 7:30 A.M., Pending Home Sales MoM & YoY, Business Inventories MoM, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Fed Logan Speech at 11:30 A.M., Fed Balance Sheet at 2:30 A.M., and Fed Jefferson Speech at 6:00 P.M.
Corn, soybean, and wheat option volatility has firmed sharply from last year, with the largest risk premium concentrated in wheat. The latest 30-day ATM volatility readings are roughly 33% for wheat, 24% fo corn, and 17% for soybeans. Year-over-year, wheat volatility is up 10.52%, corn is up 4.35%, and soybeans are up 2.28%. The structure suggests traders are pricing larger weather and supply risk into wheat, while corn has also retained a stronger risk premium on tightening US/global stocks. Soybean volatility is higher than last year but remains comparatively muted, which implies less fear of an immediate flat-price shock. The February/March war spike
Across all three markets has faded, but volatility has not fully normalized, especially in wheat and corn. For hedging, wheat and corn options are expensive as the market prices in risk, while soybean protection remains relatively cheaper as Chinese export demand is still developing.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Follows Wheat Higher; EU Corn Market Up Sharply:
Corn markets ended sharply higher on Wednesday amid soaring wheat futures and cash values, amid the uncertainty over future Ukrainian shipments. There are strong cash rumors that several kraine corn cargoes have declared force majeure due to the inability to execute amid the attacks by Russian vessels and Ukraine port infrastructure. Global corn feed expands if Black Sea logistics stay negatively impacted. And the possible losss of full Ukrainian corn exports comes at the wrong time for Europe, where crop size will be the lowest on record and imports the highest. Paris corn has rallied to a $1.04/MT ($2.67/Bu) premium to Chicago. W European continues are assured to boost purchases of US origin. We re,main bullish on corn amid the drought in Europe, escalating war in the Black Sea, and unlike a year ago, US corn production won’t offset global demand growth. Ag Resources (ARC) notes that Brazil’s interior cash market indexz is up 0.05%/Bu this week, which helps confirm that seasonal lows were reached in Brazilian corn prices in late June. It’s difficult to find bearish news for US corn values! The Black Sea and US/Iran war loom large for future corn supplies. With any hint of a sub 183 BPA Us corn yield, December corn futures will quickly reach the $500 spring highs.
Corn Supply & Weather Risk. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/16/2026
We kickoff the day with Retail Sales MoM & YoY, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales Control Group MoM, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-week average , NT Fed Services Activity Index, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEX Index, Philly Fed Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, Philly Fed Prices Paid, and Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM at 7:30 A.M., Pending Home Sales MoM & YoY, Business Inventories MoM, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Fed Logan Speech at 11:30 A.M., Fed Balance Sheet at 2:30 A.M., and Fed Jefferson Speech at 6:00 P.M.
Corn, soybean, and wheat option volatility has firmed sharply from last year, with the largest risk premium concentrated in wheat. The latest 30-day ATM volatility readings are roughly 33% for wheat, 24% fo corn, and 17% for soybeans. Year-over-year, wheat volatility is up 10.52%, corn is up 4.35%, and soybeans are up 2.28%. The structure suggests traders are pricing larger weather and supply risk into wheat, while corn has also retained a stronger risk premium on tightening US/global stocks. Soybean volatility is higher than last year but remains comparatively muted, which implies less fear of an immediate flat-price shock. The February/March war spike
Across all three markets has faded, but volatility has not fully normalized, especially in wheat and corn. For hedging, wheat and corn options are expensive as the market prices in risk, while soybean protection remains relatively cheaper as Chinese export demand is still developing.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Follows Wheat Higher; EU Corn Market Up Sharply:
Corn markets ended sharply higher on Wednesday amid soaring wheat futures and cash values, amid the uncertainty over future Ukrainian shipments. There are strong cash rumors that several kraine corn cargoes have declared force majeure due to the inability to execute amid the attacks by Russian vessels and Ukraine port infrastructure. Global corn feed expands if Black Sea logistics stay negatively impacted. And the possible losss of full Ukrainian corn exports comes at the wrong time for Europe, where crop size will be the lowest on record and imports the highest. Paris corn has rallied to a $1.04/MT ($2.67/Bu) premium to Chicago. W European continues are assured to boost purchases of US origin. We re,main bullish on corn amid the drought in Europe, escalating war in the Black Sea, and unlike a year ago, US corn production won’t offset global demand growth. Ag Resources (ARC) notes that Brazil’s interior cash market indexz is up 0.05%/Bu this week, which helps confirm that seasonal lows were reached in Brazilian corn prices in late June. It’s difficult to find bearish news for US corn values! The Black Sea and US/Iran war loom large for future corn supplies. With any hint of a sub 183 BPA Us corn yield, December corn futures will quickly reach the $500 spring highs.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374