Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with the WASDE Report at 11:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
European Weather Pattern Update
European Forecast Wetter in Black Sea; Heat Bakes Western EU Corn Crop For Another 10 Days:
The European forecast has added rain to Ukraine and large producing areas of eastern Europe. Rain will be welcomed there and will work to keep trend row crop yield potential in northern Ukraine, Bulgaria & Romania. Western Europe must contend with another 10 days of scorching heat and zero rain before this pattern shifts. Substantial and irreversible damage has been done to spring row crop potential in Spain, the UK and France. The EU model’s 10-day EU/Black Sea forecast has high temps from 92 to101 degrees in France fueling additional rapid soil moisture loss. There are growing odds of cooler/wetter weather in Europe after July 20th, and while any/all water is welcomed there, it comes too late to materially impact corn potential.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Ends Weak on US-Spanish Trade Spat; Bullish July WASDE Expected:
CBOT corn extendd Tuesday’s correction on fear Spain would turn away from the US corn market – at a time of rising supply needs there – as US forecasts maintain a relatively cooler Central US temp profile after July 18th. ARC doubts Spain will adjust it’s corn buying patterns. Today’s USDA July WASDE will feature meaningful cuts to both old and new crop US corn end stocks. US export sales commitments as of July 3rd totaled 3.384 Mil Bu, 60 Mil above USDA annual forecast. USDA’s target must be raised by 75 Mil Bu at minimum to 3,400 Mil. This along with the need to hike feed/residual use lowers old US corn end stocks to 1,970 Mil Bu, 175 Mil Bu below USDA’s June forecast. New crop stocks will be lowered to 1,800 Mil Bu. EU corn production will be lowered 2-4 MMT’s. There’s limited tolerance for US yield loss of more than 2-3 BPA. Use market choppiness in July to prepare for winter highs of $5.00 +. Sub – $4.40 Dec coen requires near-perfect US weather from mid-July to early September.
WASDE + Global Weather & Yield Concerns. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/10/2026
We kickoff the day with the WASDE Report at 11:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
European Weather Pattern Update
European Forecast Wetter in Black Sea; Heat Bakes Western EU Corn Crop For Another 10 Days:
The European forecast has added rain to Ukraine and large producing areas of eastern Europe. Rain will be welcomed there and will work to keep trend row crop yield potential in northern Ukraine, Bulgaria & Romania. Western Europe must contend with another 10 days of scorching heat and zero rain before this pattern shifts. Substantial and irreversible damage has been done to spring row crop potential in Spain, the UK and France. The EU model’s 10-day EU/Black Sea forecast has high temps from 92 to101 degrees in France fueling additional rapid soil moisture loss. There are growing odds of cooler/wetter weather in Europe after July 20th, and while any/all water is welcomed there, it comes too late to materially impact corn potential.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Ends Weak on US-Spanish Trade Spat; Bullish July WASDE Expected:
CBOT corn extendd Tuesday’s correction on fear Spain would turn away from the US corn market – at a time of rising supply needs there – as US forecasts maintain a relatively cooler Central US temp profile after July 18th. ARC doubts Spain will adjust it’s corn buying patterns. Today’s USDA July WASDE will feature meaningful cuts to both old and new crop US corn end stocks. US export sales commitments as of July 3rd totaled 3.384 Mil Bu, 60 Mil above USDA annual forecast. USDA’s target must be raised by 75 Mil Bu at minimum to 3,400 Mil. This along with the need to hike feed/residual use lowers old US corn end stocks to 1,970 Mil Bu, 175 Mil Bu below USDA’s June forecast. New crop stocks will be lowered to 1,800 Mil Bu. EU corn production will be lowered 2-4 MMT’s. There’s limited tolerance for US yield loss of more than 2-3 BPA. Use market choppiness in July to prepare for winter highs of $5.00 +. Sub – $4.40 Dec coen requires near-perfect US weather from mid-July to early September.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374